Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Is Set To Win All Of The Upcoming 8 States, Expert Says
According to polling expert Nate Silver, Bernie Sanders is likely to win all of the upcoming 8 states in the race to become the Democratic nominee. Silver boasts a long record of accurate predictions which includes successfully calling the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, for example. As a result of that particular achievement, he was named one of The Worlds 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.
Currently working at polling organization FiveThirtyEight, Silver has done a remarkable job of predicting state by state who will win in both the Democratic and Republican fields during this election cycle. His credibility took a blow, however, following a win for the rising Democratic candidate, Bernie Sanders in the state of Michigan. Silver and his polling organization claimed that Sanders opponent former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary, when in fact Bernie Sanders won the state by 2%.
After that upset, Silver went back through the records and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic one in New Hampshire, was on the same scale as the historical Sanders win in Michigan. The whole polling game changed that day, proclaimed many experts in the period that followed the primary.Silver decided to create an entirely different model and formula for predicting the primaries, one which incorporated demographic factors much more.
Using his new method of predicting, Silver would have been able to predict the Michigan caucus far more accurately, as he explains, Our demographic retrodiction for Michigan still has Clinton winning, but only barely by 3 percentage points, compared with the actual 2-point win for Sanders. Especially under the Democrats proportional allocation method, thats a pretty minor difference. The difference is even more minor when you incorporate the fact that most polling companies, in the run-up to Michigan had Sanders losing to Clinton by almost 20%.
http://usadailypolitics.com/bernie-sanders-is-set-to-win-all-of-the-upcoming-8-states-expert-says/
Bernie Sanders 2016! Feel The Bern!!!
Faux pas
(14,667 posts)CountAllVotes
(20,868 posts)That is great -- we need more of that GUSTO as We the People Feel The Bern!!!
Bernin4U
(812 posts)A couple big wins today will really help us for the bigger races starting next week. GOTV is critical!
nxylas
(6,440 posts)Just because he's saying something I like, it doesn't mean his credibility is restored. His predictions have to actually come true for that to happen.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)I've always had a problem with what this guy is selling.
Cher
Else You Are Mad
(3,040 posts)How the Hillary camp/Media will spin this as nothing important when Bernie pulls this off? They already used the neighboring state, too white, & weird state excuses to discount Bernie's wins. It should be fun to watch the Clinton's and media spin these upcoming wins.
Go Bernie!!!!!
NJCher
(35,658 posts)You just alerted me to a whole new game!
Last night I read a post that said that Democrats in half the country have not yet had a chance to vote. .
Here's a link, if you want to read this post by Art_from_Ark:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1548987
Cher
p.s. I have one other recommendation. Listen to this! It will really get you going!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=154440
GreydeeThos
(958 posts)We can take Arizona off the win list.
CountAllVotes
(20,868 posts)We Feel The Bern in California!!!
Bernie Sanders 2016!
shireen
(8,333 posts)She has a typo in the subtitle that's still not corrected after 14 hours.
I also looked on Silver's site and could not find anything about it.
If someone has the original source, please post it here.