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Sun Mar 27, 2016, 03:09 PM

I'M NEW TO THE DELEGATE MATH, SO HELP ME OUT HERE. IT SEEMS TO ME:

Clinton's delegate lead (268) just isn't that large. It is substantial, but not insurmountable. According to Google's count, https://www.google.com/#q=democratic+primary+election+results&eob=m.09c7w0/D/3/short/m.09c7w0/, the pledged delegate count is Clinton = 1,243 and Sanders = 975.

So as mentioned above, Clinton has a lead of 268 delegates. And, since a candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination, excluding super delegates, Clinton has about 52% of the delegates she needs, while Sanders has 41%.

(Since the 714 'super delegates' will likely vote the way the wind is blowing as they did in 08 when Clinton's commanding super delegate lead evaporated because it had become clear the majority of Dems wanted Obama, I'm am excluding them for now in this analysis.)

OK...so now, out of 4,051 total pledged delegates, 2,218 are taken (1,243 + 975 = 2,218). This means there are still 1,833 unclaimed pledged delegates left.

So...to win with 2,383 delegates, if he can't turn around ANY of the super delegates, Sanders needs to win about 76.8% (1,408) of those pledged delegates in order to win, again WITHOUT the super delegates. However, if he keeps winning states and winning big in some, Clinton's commanding super delegate lead may shrink by say, half?

Since there are 714 super delegates, if we take 350 of those off the table for her, and give them to Bernie, then he hypothetically only needs to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates, a much more 'do-able' prospect, and one which the Clinton campaign is no doubt aware of, and concerned about.

Because I'll tell you what...if it looks that close, I'm gonna be sure as heck calling up the super delegates in my state and pressuring them on behalf of Bernie.

My conclusion: Bernie can still win the nomination if we all work hard for him.

OK, SO THOSE OF YOU MORE EXPERIENCED AT COUNTING THESE DELEGATES, HOW DID I DO? AM I RIGHT?

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Reply I'M NEW TO THE DELEGATE MATH, SO HELP ME OUT HERE. IT SEEMS TO ME: (Original post)
PatrickforO Mar 2016 OP
PatrickforO Mar 2016 #1
TexasBushwhacker Mar 2016 #3
davidpdx Mar 2016 #6
SheilaT Mar 2016 #2
DamnYankeeInHouston Mar 2016 #4
Duckfan Mar 2016 #5
PATRICK Mar 2016 #7
Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #8

Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 03:14 PM

1. OK, update from a Hillary supporter named George.

Where the DEMOCRATIC primaries and delegates stand today


Last edited Sun Mar 27, 2016, 10:21 AM - Edit history (1)

States that have voted: 32 (20 primaries, 12 caucuses)
States remaining: 18 (17 primaries, 1 caucus)

States won:

Clinton - 16 primaries, 2 caucuses
Sanders - 4 primaries, 10 caucuses

Popular vote:

Clinton 8,736,831 (59%), Sanders 6,039,285 (41%), Total 14,776,116
Clinton +2,697,546

Pledged delegates as of today:

Clinton 1266
Sanders 1038

Clinton +225

Superdelegates as of today:

Clinton 470
Sanders 29

Clinton +441

Pledged Delegates remaining:

1747

Pledged Delegates needed for "majority" (2026):

Clinton 790 (43% of remaining)
Sanders 988 (57% of remaining)

Total delegates needed for nomination (2383):

Clinton 647 (27% of all remaining delegates)
Sanders 1316 (67% of all remaining delegates)

He's counting those super delegate eggs before they're hatched, though, isn't he. Because, again if I was a super delegate in WA, where Bernie won by over 70%, I'd be changing my support to Sanders...

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Response to PatrickforO (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 03:35 PM

3. And there are still over 200 SDs uncommited

Personally, I think if they were going to commit to Clinton, they would have by now.

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Response to PatrickforO (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 08:42 PM

6. From what I have seen not all the pledged delegates from HA, WA, and AK

have been allocated. I would expect he would get more once they are.

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Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 03:34 PM

2. BOTH camps should take comfort

 

in the fact that so long as we've had the super delegates (since 1986 I believe) they have always gone with the candidate with the most regular delegates.

Yes, Hillary has a strong lead in the pledged delegates, and a very large lead in the super delegates. The former cannot change their vote until at least one round of balloting at the convention. The latter can change their mind any time, and often do.

If, going forward, as I fervently hope, Bernie keeps on cutting away at Hillary's lead in the regular delegates until he has more than she has, the supers really need to switch to him. They also need to be taking a long, hard look at her negatives.

Just my take on this.

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Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 03:49 PM

4. I'm hoping the super duper delegates wake up to the idea that they

don't have to fear retribution from the one with the enemies list if they don't elect her.

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Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Sun Mar 27, 2016, 08:23 PM

5. As pledged delegates go for upcoming primaries....

For 2 examples, Calif. has 548. To get closer to Clintons count, Bernie needs a couple more good weeks or so. I saw in another post stating he is down by only 220 now after last night. Lets split the difference and call it 242.

Wisconsin is coming up and there is 96 available there. Even to have another big night would be incredible. It could happen given the surge from HI, AK, and WA. But once it comes time for Calif, and New Mexico which are both June 7, Bernie could be in the lead. So lets hope that is the case.

IMO, I'm encouraged. Maybe it was the bird?

And BTW, tell your friends on FB to call/E-mail their Rep's and Senators who are supers and encourage them to support Bernie.

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Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Mon Mar 28, 2016, 06:13 AM

7. First its about

winning more votes and winning more states progressively. Then all along the way keep fighting the biased delegate forecast. Don't settle for delegate math alone or getting that lobbyist superdelegate to acknowledge justice. There are several ways to win. the one that counts is in being undeniably the people's choice and INCREASING even as the frontrunner precursor decreases, irrevocably so.

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Response to PatrickforO (Original post)

Mon Mar 28, 2016, 09:40 AM

8. This is updated when final results are

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