Poll: Predictions for Wisconsin?

[blueintelligentsia]

When Bernie Sanders wins Wisconsin (positive thoughts!) by what margin?

19 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
	0.1 - 1
	0 (0%)
	1 - 2.5
	0 (0%)
	2.5 - 5
	3 (16%)
	5 - 7.5
	2 (11%)
	7.5 - 10
	2 (11%)
	10 - 15
	0 (0%)
	15 - 20
	3 (16%)
	20+
	9 (47%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Half-Century Man]

1. My pin point target number +17

Good luck with that.

[blueintelligentsia]

2. From my last poll re: WA

[Bernin4U]

3. Damn!

[blueintelligentsia]

4. YEAH! 75% of us underestimated his win margin!!! n/t

[Left Coast2020]

5. Number 1: Turnout will be key.

Number 2:
For Wisconsin, outsourcing jobs to China should be big issue there. Campaign on jobs losses statewide.

I believe if these two factors come to fruition he will win Wisconsin.

[HereSince1628]

8. There is huge pressure on to STOP TRUMP here, in an open primary that's a wild card

that could suck up votes from people who believe Clinton has a lock on the nomination.

It's hard to imagine WI going for Cruz, but hey, this place -did- go for Walker.

With respect to STOP TRUMP this place seems sort of ready for Kasich.

[davidpdx]

6. 54/46

That's my pick and I'm sticking with it.

[HereSince1628]

7. I'm really unsure of how it will go here...

Primary voter participation is traditionally low in WI. Any candidate of a major party that can GOTV an additional 20k-30k voters is in a very strong position.

WI will have an open primary, the Trump campaign is a real wild card in this state that has significant influence of radical republican participation. While anti-austerity/anti-Walker sentiment is strong among Democrats here, the Stop Trump movement is being pushed hard. It could motivate thousands of independent voters here, and thereby suck up important fractions of the economically disgruntled vote in the Green Bay, Wausau and Janesville/Beloit areas.

There is a lot of confusion around the new voter ID law... but being a state with limited mass transit most adults have drivers licenses and there has been some democratic effort to assist getting non-drivers IDs. During last months run-off elections in Milw, voter performance wasn't much affected by the ID law. Voting was about as abysmally low as usual.

The population of seniors in WI has fallen by a bit over 2%, The population is a bit less white (non-Hispanic) -1% since 2010. Among minorities the greatest percent change is in Hispanics +1.

My guess is the WI election won't be a blow-out. I expect the pattern to look more like other midwestern states than the west coast. I expect Clinton will do very well in urban/metro SE Wisconsin. There is military ship-building and military vehicle production in eastern WI north of Milwaukee which may help Clinton.

Sanders will have success across the state in small population counties that have towns with larger state universities (places like Eau Claire, Stevens Point and LaCrosse). Dane Co, Madison and the UW-flagship campus, may actually be in play as student population and AA population appear to be on opposite sides. I expect Sanders to do well in the northwest of the state (Superior) which has a deep history with labor. If he doesn't that could indicate trouble for him.

[TBF]

9. Check your registration & ID to be prepared -

I really think overall Wisconsin will go for Bernie (and Trump on the other side). But Milwaukee may be Hillary territory. Go Bernie!!

[Left Coast2020]

10. I'm not going to be on edge as I have been previously..

But given the fact I was uncertain about Alaska, I have a better sense that he should win WI. Minus any BS from Snot Walkers election goons.

As I said in another post, if jobs going to Mexico and China are the issue there, then Bernie should win. Most know by now he has fought for labor for a long time.

But I'm nervous it could be close. But maybe not.

Scoring another 70% win would be (as we said in the 60's) "bitchin".