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n2doc

(47,953 posts)
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:19 PM Oct 2015

Why an Iowa Poll Is Unfair to Bernie Sanders

There are very good reasons to question a new Monmouth poll that shows Hillary Rodham Clinton leading by 41 percentage points in Iowa.

Most other polls have tended to show a tight race, but Monmouth shows a blowout. Why?

One possibility is that Mrs. Clinton has made gains over the last few weeks, thanks to Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race or her performance in the Benghazi hearing. But another possibility is the sampling frame of the survey. There are good reasons to believe that the Monmouth poll excludes many voters who are supporting Mr. Sanders.

What’s a sampling frame? Basically, it’s the people who could be selected to participate in the survey. According to the Monmouth poll’s methodology description, the poll’s sample was drawn “from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections.”

These two conditions — being a registered Democrat and recent primary participation — exclude many of Mr. Sanders’s supporters.

He fares best among unaffiliated voters in most polls, and thousands of them will participate in the Iowa caucuses. To participate in the caucuses, you have to be a registered Democrat — but you can change your voter registration at the event, so people who are currently unaffiliated or even Republican could ultimately participate.

more
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/upshot/why-an-iowa-poll-is-unfair-to-bernie-sanders.html

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Why an Iowa Poll Is Unfair to Bernie Sanders (Original Post) n2doc Oct 2015 OP
It also excludes many newer younger voters who ALSO heavily support Bernie as well! cascadiance Oct 2015 #1
K & R AzDar Oct 2015 #2
Watch out! retrowire Oct 2015 #3
Who gives a fuck about what Hillary supporters say? smokey nj Oct 2015 #4
I'm going to guess most of them scratch their heads Fawke Em Oct 2015 #5
High five for knowing! lol n/t retrowire Oct 2015 #6
I've had a product of his in my house since my son was about 5. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #7
 

cascadiance

(19,537 posts)
1. It also excludes many newer younger voters who ALSO heavily support Bernie as well!
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:22 PM
Oct 2015

... as noted if you read the article here too. They know who will be more working to reduce or eliminate their college debts and against guest labor programs that will work against them getting jobs too.

Also note one of the comments mentions that these polls are more about calling people's landline numbers than mobile numbers, when many of those that have mobile numbers are arguably more apt to support Bernie as well.

retrowire

(10,345 posts)
3. Watch out!
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:35 PM
Oct 2015

The Hillary Supporters will soon attack this thread comparing us to Mitt Romney supporters from 2008 because we are doing research about polls!

Heaven forbid we use our brains!!!

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
5. I'm going to guess most of them scratch their heads
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 06:01 PM
Oct 2015

when they read your sig line, too.

I have a 16 year old. I know who Satoru Iwata is.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
7. I've had a product of his in my house since my son was about 5.
Tue Oct 27, 2015, 06:07 PM
Oct 2015

My 8 year old also uses his company's products, now, too.

back at you!

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