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Mon Jan 4, 2016, 05:49 PM

Nate silver's 538 thinks Bernie Sanders can win Iowa caucuses


Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama 30% to 24% at this same point in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. She leads Bernie Sanders an average of 53% to 37% in this past month. Nate Silver, 538's founder and editor, thinks Bernie could catch up and capture the state, making New Hampshire a tougher win for Clinton. Where we disagree, Silver believes Clinton will still get the nomination. I certainly don't have the data that 538 does--dating back to 1980--but Bernie Sanders has a campaign momentum that might be explained by the following numbers.

It's the young vote; this group is 97 million strong and likely to surprise the pollsters starting in February through November of 2016. It did wonders for Obama in 2008, due to his stand for change, and Bernie Sanders Revolution is exciting this same collection of youth in 2015/2016. 61% of that 97M is registered to vote or over 59 million. 49% of that 59 million voted in 2012 or more than 29 million.

As an example, according to the WSJ Washington Wire, Iowa figures show that 60% of this age group supports Bernie Sanders for the February Caucuses. And in New Hampshire, where he leads Clinton now, Bernie has 55%. Nationally, he is viewed positively by 45% of age 18-34, 37% 35-49, 33% 50-64 and 35% 65+. There is a hushed underground working fervently for Bernie Sanders that most of the pollsters are ignoring; it is obvious to me daily from the correspondence I receive on the Sander's campaign.

I have been supporting and covering Bernie Sanders from the first day he entered the race and plan to be around when he is nominated in July.

Nasty Jack Blog

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Reply Nate silver's 538 thinks Bernie Sanders can win Iowa caucuses (Original post)
Nasty Jack Jan 2016 OP
Kalidurga Jan 2016 #1
Ino Jan 2016 #5
sonofspy777 Jan 2016 #2
Jack Rabbit Jan 2016 #3
Duckfan Jan 2016 #4
SandersDem Jan 2016 #6
Stardust Jan 2016 #7
Stardust Jan 2016 #8
Duval Jan 2016 #9

Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Mon Jan 4, 2016, 06:48 PM

1. I believe Bernie will win Iowa and New Hampshire

and the other states I am pretty certain he will win are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Maine, New York, Arkansas, Mississippi, California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, oops almost forgot Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Jersey, possibly Michigan Georgia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee.

HRC, might win large portions of the southern states and some very conservative northern states.

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Response to Kalidurga (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 4, 2016, 10:38 PM

5. I think he'll win Missouri too (nt)

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Mon Jan 4, 2016, 08:34 PM

2. I believe Bernie will win these states

 


Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

If any of the territories becomes a state before November he'll win that too.

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Mon Jan 4, 2016, 08:50 PM

3. I believe Bernie is far and away the best candidate and will win

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Mon Jan 4, 2016, 10:21 PM

4. New Hampshire is damn near in his backyard.

To lose NH would be an embarrassment. But it's not going to happen. NH will go to Bernie.

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2016, 02:06 AM

6. What annoys me about 538 these days...

is it has taken them this long to make that a possibility. Early on, they had Bernie at 0 chance.

Keep watching, soon 538 will publish an article titled "Why Bernie Sander's May Actually Win The White House" and proclaim their genius at predicting this "early".

The best polls are internal polls because the sample size is every potential voter contacted by the campaigns. I am sure HC is seeing internals showing Bernie within 5% in Iowa. Two more weeks and it becomes hardcore GOTV efforts duplicating phone calls to people who id'ed as supporters to get them to commit to caucusing/voting.

One thing I know, is HC's org is very well organized, perhaps a bit too broad too early as she wanted to wrap this up. Her campaign is in a position to exploit several early organizing efforts in States where Bernie is behind in Organizing (Beyond Super Tuesday). Not saying Bernie isn't organizing there, he is, it's just HC has been in some of those States for months. Her support will erode quickly if Bernie wins Iowa and NH, which I think will happen. I also think he has a stellar shot at NV and will do well in SC.

HC is positioned for the long haul with one exception, her cash on hand and much of her wealthy donor base is tapped. She will rely much more on PAC ads and ground work. She may even try to tap into more press by going "Trumpish" although I think that is doubtful, because I do believe that if she sees herself losing this Primary, she will turn her full support behind Bernie and encourage her supporters to "get in line" for Bernie.

Keep donating to Bernie and if you have the time to work the phones and/or canvas please go for it!



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Response to SandersDem (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 5, 2016, 02:02 PM

7. I love the Eisenhower quote. I wish I'd been old enough to appreciate his wisdom. Go Bernie! n/t

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2016, 02:04 PM

8. K&R! Love your blog, Nasty Jack! Go Bernie! n/t

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Response to Nasty Jack (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2016, 04:19 PM

9. K&R! And this, despite hardly any mention on our MSM.

 

I see HC, and Trump, even JEB!. Will visit your blog, Nasty Jack, and thanks for the post!


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