Poll: Biden leads Dem primary field by 30 points

[uawchild]

Poll: Biden leads Dem primary field by 30 points

Joe Biden holds a 30-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Democratic presidential field, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill, further signaling that the former vice president is cementing his place as the primary contest’s frontrunner.

Forty-four percent of Democratic voters surveyed said they are most likely to vote for Biden in the 2020 Democratic primaries. Sanders comes in second place at 14 percent, while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) places third with just 9 percent, the poll found.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/442037-poll-biden-leads-dem-primary-field-by-30-points

[still_one]

1. Looks like those anti-Biden clips strategy by one of the campaigns is working well

[Cha]

4. In Biden's

Direction.. As some peeps predicted Yesterday!

[still_one]

7. Yes

[uawchild]

6. Why cast sly aspersions?

I posted this very good poll result for Joe Biden, but I must say I am disappointed that the FIRST response is one casting sly aspersions on, as you put it, " one of the campaigns".

This is not only divisive, but also cowardly in that you would not even state which of our campaigns you are accusing.

Can't you, as a Biden supporter, just take the good news and NOT drive wedges into the party by insinuating bad things about an unnamed "campaign"? Don't you want ALL democrats to unite behind our eventual nominee and NOT be divided by needlessly snide comments?

Give up that schtick please, while you might find it enjoyable to poke at fellow democrats that support another candidate, it's counter-productive.

[still_one]

9. Here ya go

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128710332

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287104839

The groups from the last link:

Rebel HQ on Youtube and FB - a subsidiary of Young Turks

Progressives for a Democratic Republic
- a youtube and FB page dedicated to Bernie's 2020 campaign.

[Cha]

14. +1!

[uawchild]

20. Oh, I see, you have an issue with candidates vetting each other.

But, why the sly aspersions?

Why not just say the Sanders Campaign strategy does not seem to be working?

When you don't deign to identify the people or campaign you are taking issue with, it just comes across with an "us against THOSE people" vibe.

Also, it would help to tell us which SPECFIC statement, clip, or tweet you are taking issue with, that way we could all judge for ourselves their accuracy and validity. Blanket statements like about "those anti-Biden clips" by an un-named "campaign" makes it seem that you are disagreeing with any and all criticism of your candidate.

Again, personally, I think this schtick of making broad innuendos about another "campaign" will just serve to alienate our fellow democrats that currently support that "campaign". Instead, if you are specific and state things like "Sanders is wrong on this issue", or "Sanders statement is not accurate", you would have a much better chance of converting Sander's supporters to your candidate.

Cheers

[Cha]

30. Please Stop trying to tell other

members how to post. This is a discussion board.. we all get to reply how we want to within the parameters.

[uawchild]

37. Exactly.

Let me know when discussing party unity is outside the parameters.

Thanks!

[Cha]

45. Talk to BS about "party unity".. he's the one who sends out these

emails..

Link to tweet

[still_one]

51. Touche'

[Cha]

58. Exactly. Thank You!

[uawchild]

52. Thanks for being up front and not casting "sly aspersions"

And I will certainly comment on any articles Sanders makes that I feel are wrong or harmful.

Like the one you just posted where Sanders said:

"The good news is that Trump is getting nervous, corporate America is getting nervous and the Democratic establishment is getting nervous. They're worried that we're going to win this thing, and they should be."

Well, in fairness, Sanders is RIGHT about 2 of those 3 groups having a right to being nervous, namely Trump and corporate America.

But, Sanders should drop his schtick about the "democratic establishment" too. That definitely IS counter productive. If Sanders wants a democrat to defeat Trump, he should not hurt any other democratic campaign by making , as I called them before, "broad innuendos", NOR should he cast "sly aspersions" against facets of our party.


See how easy that was?

So can we all agree to drop the innuendo schtick and stick to specifics?

Thanks.

[Cha]

60. Nwsflash! It wasn't "sly".. everyone

knows who still_one was talking about. It's only been going on for years.

[uawchild]

63. "It's only been going on for years." eye roll

About time it stopped, no?

Or is bashing Sanders in a manner that alienates those who support him for some good reasons more fun than beating tRump?

[Cha]

64. BS brings it on himself.. "bashing" isn't

calling out what he does.. another Newsflash for you.

[uawchild]

65. Again, thank you for not using innuendo and sly aspersions

I respect your right to criticize Sanders on the issues and his behavior. You have been up front in your posts to me in naming and blaming Sanders.

I hope we will all respect each persons right to criticize our candidates on the issues too.

See how easy that is?

On a side note, I think it's clear that I am not a current supporter of Sanders, or Warren, or Biden in the primaries. While each has strengths and weaknesses, I feel all three are just too old to be the best representative for our party in the 2020 election. I would prefer that the strong next generation of leadership can step up and convince voters to back them and that our elder statesmen and stateswoman can be applauded for their past efforts as they leave the national stage to new blood.

That said, if Biden wins the nomination I will support him. The same for Sanders and Warren and all the younger candidates. I hope we all feel the same about this and that we can get through the primaries with as little internal acrimony as possible.

Thanks for the discussion.

Cheers

[NYMinute]

99. If you have been around in 2016

You should know that Bernie Sanders besmirches the Democratic candidates in order to get traction. It is starting to happen again but this time, Democrats are wiser and they are punishing Sanders for such tactics.

By the way -- absolutely NO ONE is getting nervous about Sanders' campaign except probably his own accounts payable department.

[mr_liberal]

110. He wants to keep the money rolling in, that's what that looks like to me. nt

[Cha]

113. Of course, there's

that.

[LiberalLovinLug]

53. "Please Stop trying to tell other View profile members how to post."

ie...I can't refute what you are saying so ...SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP

[Cha]

57. Sorry your post makes no sense.

[MineralMan]

40. Posting a thread opener can be risky.

DUers are not known for replies designed to buck up your OP. Another word that rhymes with buck is more common.

[emulatorloo]

66. Let it go, no one is casting "sly aspersions"

This is a discussion board so people are going to discuss things. They might not always discuss things in the way you or I like. But that doesn’t mean they can’t discuss things.

[NYMinute]

27. lol

[uawchild]

39. ooo the "cool kids" lunch table just weighed in lol

Nice gif! lol

[George II]

136. bwahahahahaha!!!!

[Cha]

13. Oh Please.. it's called "reality"

and we're gonna talk about it.

[mr_lebowski]

16. Agreed ... however, the word you're looking for is 'aspersions' :) (nt)

[uawchild]

22. lol thanks for catching that!

You are correct! Aspersions it should be.

What can you expect though, I went to a vocational high school. lol
I really did. I think my brain was going for a noun form of "disparaging".

Thanks for the correction!

[George II]

31. I hope you're not casting aspersions about vocational high schools....

Sometimes I wish I'd gone to a vocational high school where I would have had a practical education instead of the science-oriented school where I learned very little that could be used in the real world.

[uawchild]

35. lol I was joking. Mostly. lol

It was actually a great place and the teaching staff really excellent. We had to carry most of the general education classes of any high school, but had concentrations in about 6 vocational/technical areas.

What I found particularly supportive was that it seemed all the teachers, even those for subjects like English Lit, were all from a blue collar backgrounds themselves. No one was looked down upon.

[George II]

38. Our local high school (the one I didn't go to, but my brothers did) was like that. I enjoyed....

....my high school but it was all male, which set my social life back a bit. I missed out on a lot by not going there.

One of the things I get to brag about, though, is that Jerrold Nadler was in my home room class!

[uawchild]

46. Hmmm

You mentioned somewhere in other posts you used to live in AOC's district, so did you happen to go the The Bronx High School of Science? That was the place that had the big rep for excellence back in the day.

[George II]

49. Close! Stuyvesant High School in Manhattan. Those two were roughly equivalent at the time.

[Politicub]

61. Just say "cast asparagus" instead

It gets the point across and will prompt the reader to think, “Oh, you.”

[murielm99]

43. Oh, dear.

And here I thought it was asparagus. Casting asparagus.....

[NYMinute]

29. Everyone knows which capaign is meant in that statement.

That campaign is the one which is divisive calling lifelong Democrats as "establishment" and it sorta worked against Hillary. Now, Democrats are wiser and they don't want that division.

[LiberalLovinLug]

50. Thank You

[John Fante]

18. I had a feeling it would backfire.

I saw those "creepy Joe" montages two years, so the fuckwads prepped that crap well in advance. And it failed spectacularly.

[TwilightZone]

2. Q has him up 27. CNN, up 24.

It'll be interesting to see if this holds or if it's a temporary post-announcement bump. Looks like it might be the former, but too early to tell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[Hortensis]

32. Yes. People know him, so I'm inclined to doubt he'd

lose his lead for long over the long road ahead as others pull up, but... We know the person with a good lead in the beginning has historically usually won, but who believes that'll hold true in these wacky times, even if "usually" actually meant squat for individual candidates?

[George II]

41. I think it's more a factor of those who held back choosing a candidate until he was officially in.

[TwilightZone]

44. Very possible.

The electorate, at large, is also not as heavily involved in the primary process as we are and may be looking to rally behind someone who they believe is most likely to beat Trump in 2020 as a primary factor. It's pretty hard to argue against Biden in that role.

An uneventful primary would also help us tremendously. We certainly don't need a repeat of 2016.

[Cha]

3. Still or more?! After all the flutter

of negativity generated by his lead?

[Vidal]

5. It won't last, but . . .

All the recent polls showing Biden with huge leads are very impressive because there are 20 other candidates. To get 44% in a field with that many candidates is phenomenal. It won't last but even if Biden drops to 35%, it doesn't look like anyone else is strong enough to give him a real challenge. This is horrible horrible news for Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

[TwilightZone]

10. It might last.

If Biden holds these big leads for very long and continues to look solid in head-to-heads against Trump, Democrats might rally behind him even more to put forth a united front and avoid a repeat of the 2016 primary battle toward the end.

It's going to be a very interesting few months, especially once the debates start.

Agreed on the Sanders numbers. Quinnipiac has him at 11%, which is as remarkable at this stage as Biden at 40%+ in a crowded field.

[peggysue2]

11. Agreed on both counts

His numbers will come down from the stratosphere but I don't think there's any argument now that he has a very strong lead. Not to mention that the Trumpster's obsessive tweeting is having the opposite effect of what the Trumpy's were hoping for.

And yes, for the Sanders' campaign this is bad, bad news.

[honest.abe]

15. Why wont it last?

I dont see anything other than a huge fking gaffe that could stop him.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

23. I think it could go down if the other candidates target him on the debate stage

Which is why I hope he has already been preparing in advance. He's not done a debate since 2012, not done much public events since leaving office in 2017. He has a long record and the biggest clout therefore he has the most to lose if he flops, but a good performance cements him all the way IMO.

[honest.abe]

24. If he is still holding this kind of lead up to the debates..

none of the other candidates will attack him, with the exception of one perhaps. The other candidates will be looking for VP slot and wont want to hit too hard.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

28. Mike Gravel is only showing up to jump on Biden

His twitter feed suggests so!

[Drunken Irishman]

105. Gravel likely won't share the same stage as Biden.

[erlewyne]

48. Kamala Harris has my vote and I am a chauvinist.

That woman is super. I remember Biden and his take-down of Anita Hill
when everybody knew she was right. That was a defining moment for
me. I will vote for the democrat we choose but the women are outstanding.

My saying I am a chauvinist is an alibi, it took me seventy years to realize
it can I plead the fifth?

[emulatorloo]

67. If you think Biden is the reason Clarence Thomas is on the bench you are mistaken n/t

[NYMinute]

33. None of the other candidates (except one) will attack Biden

They will talk about themselves and their policies. It will be all amicable except one candidate who will make a bigger fool of himself by attacking Biden in that lovefest. Other Bernie placeholders like Tulsi or Marianne (only there to endorse Bernie when they drop out to counter the Democrats endorsing Biden as they drop out) don't have the stature to attack Biden and they will be laughed off with ridicule.

[treestar]

127. The undecided are the largest group

or the supporters of the others add up to more. But then how they will break is the question. This can give them the impression Biden can win and that itself bring more of them in the end.

[LakeArenal]

8. Because Biden is the most qualified.

Nationally and globally.

Also, people like nice people.

[onetexan]

55. +1 -K&R

[Peacetrain]

12. Just saw this in another post...

So happy to rec again..thanks for posting.

[honest.abe]

17. That is a huge lead at this point in time.

I dont see anything stopping him.

Even as a Harris supporter I am ready to jump on the bandwagon.

[W_HAMILTON]

19. Good lord, that's a helluva lead!

[John Fante]

21. I expected Biden to vault to clear frontrunner status.

I did not foresee Sanders' fall.

[FailureToCommunicate]

25. That's great, but it's interesting that here on DU's member poll Biden is only 3% over Harris

and not the big lead that national polls are starting to see.

[sheshe2]

34. Sorry, I would put a lot of stock in DU polls vs national polls.

It was a great idea by Admin and it's fun to watch the numbers. However this is DU and we are not a national poll.

[emulatorloo]

68. DU members aren't reflective of real world democrats. This site is a bubble. A useful and

interesting bubble

[uawchild]

75. "DU members aren't reflective of real world democrats."

It's just my opinion, but my sense is that in general DU participants tend to be more affluent and older than the democratic voters as a whole.

Part of that, I think, is due to age and baby boomers are more affluent at this stage of their lives than younger people.

[emulatorloo]

77. I think in general we are more liberal/progressive. But most Democrats don't care about labels

They just want to help Democrats lift the people and the country up.

[Kahuna7]

26. These last 4 national primary polls show a definite trend. nt

[Blue_true]

118. Democratic primary voters are cool toward Bernie.

If anything changes between now and the first primary, it is likely one or two of the people polling lower than Bernie pass him.

[MineralMan]

36. Good. This confirms my thinking about what

Voters are looking for. Glad to see it. Others may not be glad, but there it is.

[Honeycombe8]

42. Looks like he may be the nominee. Has anyone this far ahead not won the nomination?

There have been leaders this early that lost the nomination, but I don't recall anyone leading by this much, who lost the nomination. I'll have to look that up.

[uawchild]

80. A case can be made that Biden was this far ahead in 1987 and folded

First, this is not a prediction or criticism about the current Biden primary campaign. But since you asked if anyone this far ahead ever lost the nomination, I think the closest person would be Joe Biden himself in 1987.

"Biden was initially considered one of the potentially strongest candidates as campaigning began in 1987.[5] This was because of his moderate image, his speaking ability on the stump (rated second only to that of Jesse Jackson), his appeal to Baby Boomers, his high-profile position as chair of the Senate Judiciary committee, looming for the Robert Bork confirmation hearings, and his fundraising appeal—his $1.7 million raised in the first quarter of 1987 was more than any other candidate.[6][7] By the end of April he had raised $2 million, using not just contributions from Delaware but also establishing a base of support among young professionals and Jewish voters in a number of urban- and suburban-oriented states.[8] He had no campaign debt, and Fortune magazine termed his "most impressive start" a "surprise".[8]"

While that's not exact poll numbers, I don't even know how much they polled in 1987, but the general grist was that Biden was the surprise early leader

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign

Biden ended up withdrawing from that campaign with Michael Dukakis becoming the nominee.

[Honeycombe8]

90. Very interesting.

I hadn't had a chance to look up anything, so that's a good start. Thanks!

I wonder why he withdrew? I guess his campaign lost steam. Again...I'm going to read up on that.

If only Dukakis had not been the nominee. I didn't think he was the right one from the start and didn't understand how he got nominated.

[Celerity]

102. Plagiarism of Neil Kinnock and he also fabricated aspects of his own family's background in order

to match Kinnock's. He also lied about graduating in the top half of his law school class (he was 76th out of 85) and also committed plagiarism there (he had to beg to not get kicked out). Plus he had massive intramural staff fights so his message was very muddled, as well as some confusion over civil rights claims he made.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_1988_presidential_campaign#Status_among_candidates

Article from the NYT detailing a lot of this:

https://www.nytimes.com/1987/09/18/us/biden-admits-plagiarism-in-school-but-says-it-was-not-malevolent.html?src=pm

[Honeycombe8]

120. I read up on it. He was never the real frontrunner, and was lagging behind 2 others...

when he withdrew (when the plagiarism thing broke).

[NYMinute]

100. Biden was never this far ahead in 1988

Here are the poll numbers:

[uawchild]

107. Thanks for that chart, but it runs thru June.

In 1987, the wheels came off Biden's campaign after a fast start and he started to fade fast. Your chart shows him with negligible support by the end of June.

I don't have polling data for, say, January thru April, just the statements on the fast fund raising and general reception that I posted in the wikipedia link.

"By the end of April he had raised $2 million, using not just contributions from Delaware but also establishing a base of support among young professionals and Jewish voters in a number of urban- and suburban-oriented states.[8] He had no campaign debt, and Fortune magazine termed his "most impressive start" a "surprise".[8]"


So, to be fair, maybe Biden was or wasn't as far ahead as he is right now, but his collapse in 1987 was real, was hard and was fast. And apparently it happened sometime before June 1987, according to your chart.

Thanks

[NYMinute]

108. Those are Jan-June averages

and to have an average of 2.5% one can never be ahead by 30%.

Here is the math -- to be ahead by 30% and assuming the second person was at 5%, Biden would have to be at 35% at some point. If during all the other months even if Biden was at 0, the average would be 35+0+0+0+0+0/6 = 5.83%

It is mathematically impossible.

Nice try for Bernie though.

[uawchild]

112. You really don't have data to prove your point

You assume there were as many polls thru April in 1987 as in May and June? Ok... that's a bold assumption on your part.

What I see is that polling is starting to pick up now, more and more polls have been coming in during the last week for example.
The same thing probably happened in 1987. Who knows? And who cares?

Biden's collapse in 1987 is legendary. He got off to a fast start , according to wikipedia, and collapsed, according to your own chart, by June. You can try to duck that, but facts are stubborn things.

But to be ABSOLUTELY fair, perhaps Gary Hart's collapse was even more epic than Biden's. I completely forgot about THAT fiasco.

In any case, Biden's and Hart's political collapse in 1987 left the path to the nomination open for... Michael Dukakis. Yes, Michael Dukakis.

Cheers!

As for your Sanders non sequitur, I have made it clear in other threads that I am not supporting Warren, Sanders or Biden in the primaries because I feel they are all too old to best represent the party in the 2020 election. I am hoping primary voters are won over by the new generation of leadership, but will, of course, support the eventual nominee no matter who it is. So, please, don't try to rope me into your Biden-Sanders drama.

so, BOOM, back at ya! lol

[NYMinute]

119. Some people are just not good at math

If you claim that there were more polls than just 6, your argument is even less likely.

But, I won't keep arguing since many people bad at math also need to have the last word, however wrong.

[ehrnst]

125. That's quite a "rogues gallery" you've assembled there.

[uawchild]

130. You mean my view on our 70-ish year old candidates?

I know, it seems controversial that I think 3 out of the 4 leading candidates might be too old to best represent the party in 2020. lol

But, from what I have been reading about aging and cognitive decline, I think it's a valid point and am looking for opportunities to discuss it when the news brings it to the fore.

It's not a total deal breaker for me in regards to the eventual nominee, but I would prefer if voters got behind one of our excellent younger candidates.

btw, women seem to suffer cognitive decline ate 50% the rate of similar age males, so Warren is just about on the bubble. Men seem to suffer a 10% decline between ages 65-70, while women have a 6% decline. It picks up steam in the 70's.

[Honeycombe8]

121. Thanks. I found similar info. Biden was behind when he withdrew...

and was never the real frontrunner. Gary Hart was I think the frontrunner, when he had to drop out due to his Donna Rice scandal. When Biden's plagiarism scandal hit, he was behind Dukakis & Gephardt (altho Biden had more money).

Thanks for the chart, though. Very interesting.

[NYMinute]

124. +1 nt

[BigmanPigman]

47. Why does the CNN poll have Beto ahead of everyone, including Biden?

In fact the top 6 or 8 Dem candidates have a 1% lead over tRump in their poll.

Polls/schmolls I guess.

[emulatorloo]

69. Sounds like an outlier

[uawchild]

84. Depends how much push polling CNN did or did not do

Pollsters can pretty much get the results they want by slanting the questions and selecting the participants in a given poll.

Was the poll a poll of all voters? or "likely" voters? What was the landline to cell phone ratio of people they called, older voters tend to use landlines more. What were the exact questions asked and in what order?

There are tons of variables that can be manipulated to obtain more desirable poll results.

Since this was a CNN poll, and CNN wants viewers, I would not be totally shocked if some of these variables were "selected" to give a poll result indicating that a "horse race" was still possible.

[BigmanPigman]

95. That is what my dad always said.

He just died suddenly(was in excellent health) a month ago and I miss his words of wisdom and advice.

He would tell me that a poll or study or survey can always be skewed to reflect whatever the poll taker wants it to reflect. That is why I shy away from them in general.

[uawchild]

96. Sorry to hear that

Losing a parent is an incredible blow, try to take extra care of yourself and yours thru this difficult period.

[BigmanPigman]

101. Thank you, you're very kind.

It is even worse than I imagined it would be (which was the worst of all the worst things combined).

[Honeycombe8]

122. The CNN poll I'm looking at has Beto 6th.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

You have a link for the one you're looking at? Is it old, maybe?

[BigmanPigman]

131. No since I saw/heard it on TV.

When I asked about it on another post a fellow DUer explained that it is a specific type of poll which sort of made sense. I forget what type it is called.

[Honeycombe8]

132. Poor Beto. I hope he gets his mojo back.

He has something to offer, so I hope he finds a place in the crowd that makes him a contender.

[BigmanPigman]

133. I'm sure he'll be in the top 5.

Things are so crazy you never know at this point. Dems are still adding more candidates...what does that make? 22? Like I said...crazy.

[Honeycombe8]

134. That's ridiculous for more to keep piling in. Why????

All that does is siphon off money from the real contenders. Although I wouldn't want to stop anyone who has a real chance.

But there comes a point when only so many can get meaningful air time, for voters to get to know them.

[BigmanPigman]

135. Agree!

[saljr1]

54. I don't think Joe will be the nominee

There are so many good candidates and leading now is not a good position to be in. It's a long campaign and he will have to keep up with the others candidates. Just my opinion

[Honeycombe8]

123. Maybe. But I haven't found yet an instance of someone being this far ahead & not being nominee.

Do you know of an instance of that?

30 points ahead very early. Not getting the nomination (that is, not having to withdraw from a scandal or something)?

I'm trying to look that up.

He has the money, and he is one of few with national name recognition, and the only one with long-term national name recognition. Bernie's been around a while, but he hasn't been nationally known until recently.

Note: I'm not saying he SHOULD be or shouldn't be. I'm just looking for an instance similar to the current one, where one candidate is 30 pts ahead out of the gate, and gets the most money, but doesn't become the nominee (if he doesn't withdraw).

[TheFarseer]

56. Oh good

We just get who we get without any real discussion because the talking heads think he can beat Trump.

[Cha]

62. The people are thinking Biden can beat

trump.

So far.. we'll see what happens down the road.

[TheFarseer]

85. I guess I can't refute that off hand.

But just about the only reason you hear Biden supporters give is they think he has the best chance to win which is possible but definitely not a fact.

[emulatorloo]

70. No, talking heads wanna "Hillary" Biden. It is Dem voters who believe Biden can win.

[Cha]

73. That's what I was thinking...

Don't have a tv.. but that's the sense I got from what I read on DU.

Thanks, emulatorloo

[emulatorloo]

76. I told you about going to the Biden rally in Cedar Rapids and talking to reporters

One claimed Biden’s speech was “low energy”, even though the crowd was on their feet cheering.

Another said Iowa rejected Biden in 2008, so they will reject him now too.

Another said Iowans will be upset if Biden talks about Trumps horrible response to Charlottesville. How hard is it for people to grasp that Iowa Caucus goers are left liberal and progressive and that White Supremacists and racists anger them?

These reporters have their cute little false narratives. The voters don’t care....we are here to win, not listen to beltway reporter nonsense

[Cha]

111. It's Surreal how Gaslit those

reporters are.

2008 was THEN.. 2019 is NOW.. After Biden has had 8 years as President Obama's Vice President.. That matters tremendously as evidence by the polls.. Whether beltway "reporters" want to acknowledge it or not.

VP Biden's announcement Vid highlighting the heinous march of the neo-nazis, and the fight for the "soul of America" was brilliant.. and I think most people got that.

"Reporters" want to manipulate and manufacture to sway public opinion to their tidy little vapid scenarios.. doesn't seem to working in this case.

Mahalo, emulatorloo!

[spooky3]

59. The margin of error must be enormous-- see this pgh:

"The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll online survey of 1,536 registered voters was conducted from April 30-May 1. Of that, 259 self-identified Democratic voters were asked about their candidate preference in the party’s primary field."

259 voters to represent the nation?

[emulatorloo]

71. The poll isn't real because I don't want to believe it.

[spooky3]

98. I'm not sure if you are speaking for yourself, but

You are not speaking for me.

[TwilightZone]

79. That's how polls work.

They're a representative sample of a population. Some are better and more accurate than others, but that's how they all work.

It would be rather difficult to interview 150 million registered voters for a poll, so the polling company uses a sample, plus demographic information to weigh and extrapolate the results.

[spooky3]

97. Did you notice the sample size? Even a representative sample

Of a very large population, is going to have a huge margin of error with that tiny sample size.

I have a doctorate, do survey research for a living, and am very familiar with statistics.

Here is a very basic description of the calculation—and note that there is no question in the example about the randomness of the sample:

https://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-sample-size-affects-the-margin-of-error/

[Indykatie]

72. Polls Show All Tier 1 Dem Candidates beating or Tied with Trump so it's Not "Electability" Alone

driving Biden's surge. Other polls have shown Biden also capturing 40-45% of AA voters and he gets a majority of second choice votes for the other candidates except Bernie who chose Warren. That's yuge!!!!!!!!!!!

[emulatorloo]

78. So Biden is "the same" as Trump? No thanks Max

He was a popular Vice President for the man who most Democrats and Dem leaning independent admire and respect. He’s evolved and his positions are solid left liberal Democratic positions on healthcare, education, civil rights, and income equality

He is not like Trump at all, who is venal, a racist, a sexist molestor, who wants to fuck over every American except his rich cronies. A traitor who sold his soul to Putin. An asshole Liar who is crushing the most vulnerable in our society.

So like I say Max, if you are gonna push “Biden and Trump are the Same”, no thanks.

[maxsolomon]

87. I said idiots might think that. The gullible. The low-information voters that decide.

He isn't like Trump, but he's vulnerable to that accusation.

[emulatorloo]

88. I know what you said.

[TwilightZone]

93. No, he isn't.

No one is going to conflate Joe Biden with Donald Trump.

Your "but he's a white guy" defense of that assertion is nonsense.

[Cha]

116. Thank You, TwilightZone.

[Cha]

115. Mahalo for setting the record of history

straight, emulatorloo!

[hlthe2b]

81. wow! You say "he's the closest to Trump as a "type"... Are you kidding?

comparisons of ANY of our candidates to Trump is just wrong... very wrong.

[maxsolomon]

83. he and Asshole are NOT both elderly white males?

there is a substantial portion of the electorate that thought HRC was "just as bad" as Asshole, and that there's "no difference" between the parties. they're utter idiots, and they vote.

I want to draw as clear a distinction as possible.

[hlthe2b]

89. Would you compare a black male candidate (e.g., Corey Booker) to Herman Caine?

hell no. That is really irresponsible.

[emulatorloo]

91. Or Elizabeth Warren to the Koch's Joni Ernst? They are both the woman type, don't you know.

[TwilightZone]

82. Biden is Catholic.

Quite notably so, in fact.

As for the rest of your assertions, they're similarly questionable.

[maxsolomon]

86. whoops.

sorry, Joe Biden.

[emulatorloo]

94. Pretty disrespectful

True colors and all that

Have a nice night.

[Cha]

117. Yeah, "whoops".

[Cha]

114. That's your opinion, maxsolomon, and it's

dead wrong.

You don't get to smear VP Biden with trump's shit.

[treestar]

129. Catholic

but I don't see that as a major factor. White males are not automatically disqualified even if we had total equality.

[NurseJackie]

103. Not surprised that Biden holds the lead... only surprised that BS (I-Vt) has cratered so early.

Joe Biden holds a 30-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

Not surprised that Biden holds the lead... only surprised that BS (I-Vt) has cratered so early.

I'm very optimistic about the future, for once.

[NYMinute]

109. That campaign put attention on Biden

by releasing the Lucy Flores lie and then compounded it when the two other women turned out to be friends/acquaintances of Lucy Flores. The fact that they were all immediately found out as Bernie supporters released the pent-up anger in Democrats which had been seething since 2016.

One should never point one's gun at one's foot when pulling the trigger.

[NurseJackie]

104. Everyone should start getting used to saying "President-elect Biden".

Everyone should start getting used to saying "President-elect Biden". Election day will be here before you know it.

[Cary]

106. From your nurse lips to Gods ear!

[KPN]

126. That won't hold. His numbers will drift lower over time. Not saying he won't or can't win, but

not by that margin. No way. Too many good candidates who will rise in the polls as people learn more about them.

[Gothmog]

128. I like Joe Biden and believe that he can beat trump