Latest Harvard-Harris Poll Shows Biden Holding 19-Point Lead

[MineralMan]

June 1 is here, and here are the latest numbers from the Harvard-Harris Poll. Note that only Bernie Sanders has numbers above 15%, the cut-off point for getting any delegates in primary races. That is an all-important number to watch in polling results.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/446358-poll-biden-leads-2020-dem-field-by-19-points

Poll: Biden leads 2020 Dem field by 19 points

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new national poll released exclusively to The Hill that finds him ahead of his closest competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), by nearly 20 points.

36 percent of Democratic respondents said that Biden is most likely to get their vote to become the party’s 2020 presidential nominee, according to the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey. He’s followed by Sanders in second place, who scored 17 percent.


The survey is only the latest putting Biden atop the pack of Democrats running for president. Since announcing his presidential bid last month, the former vice president has maintained a wide lead in most national and state polls, while Sanders has routinely placed second.

The poll shows Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) placing third with 8 percent support. She’s followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who are tied at 5 percent each.

[Butterflylady]

1. Thank you MineralMan

I always look forward to reading your posts.

[MineralMan]

2. Thanks so much!

[George II]

3. That's pretty close to the ratio in most of the individual state polls, too....

....If this were the case in every state (it's not) only two candidates will get delegates, and Biden would win easily with about 68% of the delegates.

[MineralMan]

4. Yes. That's what I've noticed, too.

By the time we actually have some primaries (and caucuses), those numbers are going to get more and more important. Anyone not polling at 15% or higher in an individual state isn't going to get any delegates, if the voting reflects the polls, which it usually does pretty much.

Really, when push comes to shove, that 15% number is the only one that matters.

Will the debates shift polling, which reflects people's attitudes? I don't know. We will have to wait and see.

All of the candidates understand that 15% rule. They've faced it in their previous runs for office. They know exactly what it means.

[democratisphere]

5. Joe is getting the job done.

Glad to see Harris and Warren doing well. Long time, full time Demcrats are where it's at!

[pnwmom]

6. Harvard has put its name on a post with a rightwing lean that has a C+ rating from 538.

I don't know why out of all the campaign polls out there this is the one people like to choose.

They're being fooled by the Harvard name.

[MineralMan]

8. It's the only new poll that has results today.

However, it's not that much different from other recent poll results.

Frankly, I don't follow polls on a daily basis. I pointed this one out, because I'm trying to spread the word about the 15% rule. As this current poll, and many others, indicates, only a couple of people have worked themselves up to 15% or higher. Now, that doesn't matter in polls, but it sure matters in actual primary elections and caucuses.

Right now, most of the primary candidates are polling out of the running results. I'm still waiting for someone besides Biden and Sanders to look like they'll win any delegates to the convention. That's what matters, isn't it?

[pnwmom]

10. Why should you expect much movement in any of these polls when we haven't had a single debate yet?

It seems like many people are trying to push the idea that the two initial frontrunners are inevitably going to stay at the front. I don't think history supports that view. For example, Obama at this point in 2007 was still way in the back of the pack. That changed.

[MineralMan]

12. It will be interesting to see what the viewership is for the debates,

I think. Meanwhile, the candidates are out campaigning on their own. They're showing up on cable news "town halls." They're holding rallies, or at least some of them are. They're in the news.

The polls are shifting around a little bit all the time, but in a narrow range.

Will the debates make a big difference? I don't know, really. I watched the Republican primary debates the last time. They didn't give each candidate much time to make much of an impression. The Democratic candidates will face the same challenge. Some will focus on their pet issue, which will be a mistake. Others will go for a more general appeal to viewers.

You mentioned that the Harvard-Harris Poll has a relatively low rating, and I agree. I tend to look most closely at the aggregate numbers on a regular basis, and pretty much ignore individual polls. But, it's the first of the month, and that poll was the only new one to look at.

It certainly wasn't an outlier. It's pretty much the same as most of the other recent ones, with Biden in the high thirties with Sanders back by double digits. The rest of the field remains short of that 15% cut-off.

This isn't 2007. It's not 2015, either. This is a brand-new situation, and I'm not looking at old information about the 2020 primary race. The field of candidates is remarkable, really, for the most part.

Sanders is the only common ground from 2015.

[FBaggins]

7. Not so all-important

The debate structure means that at least half of the other candidates (I’d guess 15) will be gone before the first primary. There will probably be at least four above the 15 point threshold

[MineralMan]

9. Maybe. Maybe not.

I wouldn't predict where the current followers of other candidates will go, frankly. Many will shift to the leaders. Some will shift to other candidates. We have no idea how that will go yet. When I look at candidates like, say, Amy Klobuchar, I see her supporters mainly moving toward Biden.

If I had to guess who the top four would be by the time we get to Iowa, I think it would be Biden, Sander, Warren, and Harris, in that order. But, the second two could easily be replaced by others if the others somehow make a major coup during the debates.

One thing that could also happen would be for Biden to move up over 50% in the polls as candidates leave the race. That's entirely conceivable, I think. If that happens, the third and fourth place group still might not reach 15% in many states' primaries.

Politics is more interesting when you understand the numbers.

[FBaggins]

19. The problem with that theory is that I do "understand the numbers"

Biden is clearly the candidate with the most experience and name recognition and represents the party establishment - he’s clearly the “next in line”.

The problem with that is that it also means that the substantial majority of those supporting lesser-tier candidates do so knowing full well who and what he is.

They are not likely to have him as second on their list. Add to that the simple reality that large debates with one clear front runner are likely to be exercises in everyone else taking shots at him... and support for those dropping out is far more likely to shift to other “not Biden” candidates.

IOW... if Biden tops 50% in a substantial primary... I expect it to be after the nomination is already wrapped up for all intents and purposes.

[MineralMan]

20. Someone posted a "second choice" poll this past week.

Biden did surprisingly well in that, picking up substantial support from current supporters of those second-tier candidates.

So, we'll have to wait and see, I suppose.

While it's too early, still, I suspect there will be some conversations between Biden and one or two of the other candidates at some point, too.

[FBaggins]

21. I think you need to consider that you're suffering from confirmation bias

I assume you're talking about the Morning Consult data. There are two large problems there for your position:

1 - You have an odd notion of "substantial support". For Sanders/Warren/Harris/Buttigieg supports he was the second choice for 33/17/27/28 percent. That demonstrates my point perfectly (which was that the bulk of those voters wouldn't be going to him).

2 - Unless someone puts their foot in their mouth (which we have to accept is more likely to be Biden than just about anyone else), those four are the ones most likely to still be around past the first primaries. We're less interested in how they would break than for the 25% or so who are either undecided or supporting third-tier candidates.

This cycle might be different from most others (2016 certainly was)... but undecided voters rarely break toward the well-known frontrunner.

[still_one]

11. While that is nice, I have issues with online surveys

[MineralMan]

13. It looks a lot like the other polling from mid-May onward.

It's not looking like an outlier, really.

[still_one]

14. That may be, but I still don't like them, and I think they poll from the same pool which I am not a

fan of either. I think it is a lot like Zogbt does

[Nanjeanne]

15. I'm confused. Online polls are good or bad? I've seen rejections of them by many on DU.

[MineralMan]

16. That depends on how they're done, I suppose.

Really, it's important to look at polling in context. This poll has very similar results to other polls from the last half of May. I always compare polls to each other if I want a feel for the current situation.

I posted this one to make the point about the 15% rule. All the others show exactly the same thing. Only two candidates currently are polling over 15%. The rest would get no delegates at all if the primaries were held today and the voting was the same as the poll results.

That is the challenge for all candidates who are not at the 15% level, frankly.

[Nanjeanne]

17. Thanks. I'm sure we will see drop outs before primaries. I don't think these polling numbers

will reflect what really happens when the first primary votes take place. There are just so many people in the race right now and it may be an indication of where people are leaning this far out. I expect it to change significantly as we get closer. And after the first primary date, the field will definitely narrow.

[MineralMan]

18. I'm sure you're right.

After the debates have taken place, some seem sure to drop out. Maybe. All, however, will have invested something in the race, and some will probably resist the urge to drop their names from the primary ballots.

I just don't know. We have not faced this number of primary candidates in the Democratic Party before, at least recently.

[Cha]

22. Good!