After we're heavily into the debates, Joe's & Bernie's numbers could very well go into a free fall

[mtnsnake]

The younger folks running in this campaign are going to shine in the debates, and they're going to be opening up a lot of eyes. They are that fucking talented. I don't think Bernie and Joe will do very well going up against them on the same stage. Once the "kids" get to be known better during those debates, the voters will become more and more confident with them, and I think they'll start switching from the old folks to the kids, resulting in polls that will flip in favor of the young'uns.

Bernie has great progressive ideas, but when it comes to showing how he's going to implement them, he comes up a little short, and his routine is starting to get old. In 2016, Bernie was the only real competition for the front-running Hillary, so Bernie was the obvious alternative for voters who didn't want Hillary. This time around, though, there are too many other good choices for an alternative to the front runner. Plus, the idea of socialism still scares away too many voters that we can't afford to lose.

Biden might be the "safe" candidate for the time being, but that notion could very well change once the debates begin. Joe is likeable and experienced, but a lot of baggage comes with all that experience, way more than what anyone thought Hillary had. Most of Hillary's baggage was undeserved, but Biden's baggage is for real, and it could come back to haunt him not just in the primaries but in a general election as well. From his crime bill that backfired on minorities to his plagiarism scandal to his handling of Anita Hill to his huggy-kissy stuff, he's going to get plastered about it in the debates.

Besides, after what's gone on with establishment politicians in DC, will it really be such a good idea to run an old white male as the Democratic candidate for President? I don't think so.

Once the dust settles, I think the choice to beat Trump will end up being either Buttigieg, Harris, Swalwell, young-at-heart Warren, Klobuchar, Booker, O'Rourke, or possibly Stacey Abrams if she jumps in. It could be any one of them, but I doubt it will be Biden or Sanders. Any one of those "fresh" faces can and will beat Trump, no problem, and do a great job as President because the freshness they will add to any campaign is just what the voters are thirsting for, not someone from the geriatric section of politics.

I know my opinion on this won't be popular, but in 6 or so months, if the poll numbers don't flip like I'm saying from the old folks over to the young'uns, I'll gladly eat some crow!

[SouthernProgressive]

1. "after what's gone on with establishment politicians in DC"

[mtnsnake]

3. Whenever I see that laughing emoticon as the only response within a post

it reflects that the poster is either just plain rude or devoid of any real answer or thought.

[SouthernProgressive]

6. With respect to your opinion....

The latter portion covers my thoughts on those who rail against the establishment.

[LongtimeAZDem]

7. +1

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. What, exactly, is an "establishment" politician?

I'd like to see a definition that actually means something and isn't used as a safe synonym for either "old" or "insufficiently ideologically pure."

[BlueTsunami2018]

4. On the other hand, they could go the other way.

And pretty much cement Biden as the nominee. Or things could just stay the same. Or one can go up and the other down. Many things could happen.

[mtnsnake]

5. Oh, for sure that is certainly possible

After all, my post is really nothing more than conjecture on my part.

[redstateblues]

8. Counting on a big change from the debates is fools gold.

Ratings are usually small and with the huge number of candidates it will be very difficult for one to catch on fire. Most of them have already pulled out their bags of tricks.

[Peacetrain]

9. Well a few weeks from now we will know..My guess is that VP Biden will be fine..

He has been hitting all the marks just fine.. and he is a heck of a debater..

[ucrdem]

11. I think it is pretty much settled.

I noticed the others are being careful about bashing Biden.

[ucrdem]

10. A few more Lucy Sanchez bombs and we won't need a primary.

Joe did pretty well by her!

[Skya Rhen]

13. Because decent people know decent people - we decent people know that Joe is decent...

[ucrdem]

15. Exactly.

There's a place for cynical calculation but that gets tiresome fast.

[susanr516]

12. I don't think it will be a free fall

However, I think they both will slip a little as other candidates become better known by primary voters who haven't been closely following the candidates this early. As voters become more familiar with other candidates, I would expect some of them who only recognized Biden and Bernie to change their positions. I don't expect it to be a dramatic switch, though.

[mtnsnake]

14. I might have gotten the "After we're heavily" part wrong

Maybe I should have said "Before we're even into"