538: "Bernie has the highest floor and it's pretty damn low."

[Tiggeroshii]

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2020 Election

Today is June 6, that time of year that astronomers say is spring, meteorologists say is summer, and fancy-assed salad chains say is “early summer” and charge you $14 for a delicious bowl of greens that will leave you hungry three hours later. This is Silver Bulletpoints, the column where we tackle three topics related to the 2020 Democratic primary in 300 words or less.

Bulletpoint No. 1: Everybody has a low floor
Bernie Sanders has been getting better news in the polls recently, generally polling in the high teens instead of the mid-teens, as he was immediately after Joe Biden entered the race. It’s not a huge shift, and Sanders is off his March peak in the mid-20s. But he’s consolidated his hold on second place, while Biden’s numbers have declined slightly.

My guess is the numbers after the debates would be the first somewhat reliable indication of where this race is headed.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-has-the-highest-floor-and-its-pretty-damn-low/

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. Yup, and that's reflected in the RCP poll averages...

yet some here are denying that the poll numbers have slowly reversed and are starting to trend in Bernie's favor, with the gap separating him from Biden consequently beginning to close. It's fun to watch, as the reality of the situation is starting to sink in, with Biden now playing defense after a very bad week. I see the trend continuing, although, obviously, there's a LONG way to go and anything could happen, so, it could reverse itself... we shall see!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Biden could legitimately solidify the support he has after the debates...

But to assume that the vast majority of his support is solid enough to take home the nomination at this point is just a tad naive.

[thesquanderer]

3. Also, debates tend to disfavor the front-runner.

That's why the people in front have traditionally tried to limit debates. If you're leading, there's more possible downside than up. And in this case, the debates are going to be the first major exposure many of the candidates get... and if they win any people over, some of that support will presumably come from people who had been leaning toward Biden.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Absolutely!

[Hortensis]

8. Sure. But we can expect Biden's lead to drop somewhat very naturally

as everyone turns to look at their options. Struggling to keep that from happening would be foolish, especially when it would be very unrealistic to expect it to disappear.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. You got that right Tigger!!

Have a great weekend!!




Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[rusty quoin]

4. The debates will decide a lot of things. I'm looking forward to them.

[MineralMan]

6. It will matter how many people watch those debates. A lot.

Yes, there will be shifts in the polling following them, but that's not the last word, by any means.

Of course, we'll all be watching those debates, but only a minority of Democratic voters will do the same. Instead, they'll see snips of the debates on their morning or evening news programs.

On the bright side, though, primary turnouts are low, so most of those who vote in the primaries are more likely to have been debate watchers. Still, the debates aren't going to necessarily predict who the nominee will be.

Unless, that is, one of the candidates is double digits ahead of the closest rival following those debates. Then we'll know pretty much what the outcome will be.

Always keep in mind: To get any delegates at all to the national convention, a candidate must receive at least 15% of the primary vote in a state's primary or caucus meetings. A lot of candidates in a field of 24 are not going to meet that number, clearly. It's all about the delegates, as always.

[NYMinute]

7. Bernie is a poor debater

He is angry and disheveled usually and points his finger like he is talking down to the audience. He comes across as "only I know what is good for you" and that turns off most people except the devotees.

The devotees holding pitchforks will never deviate or look at realistic paradigms ... thus he has a high floor. In elections, floors don't count -- the idea is to take the ceiling higher. Trump has a floor of about 32% who won't look at realistic paradigms either because they are devoted to Trump's persona and racist ideology.

Most of the other candidates will be training lasers on Bernie in the debates. It won't be pretty.

Bottom line, there won't be a revolution in 2020.

[Hortensis]

10. :) His authoritarian, "I along can fix it" note, mild as it is compared

to the RW version, does for sure turn off strong liberals but has genuine appeal to those drawn to leaders like that. No coincidence that he's managed to become a populist leader as a LW counterpart to Trump's huge movement. LOT of overlap in the people they can draw.

Personally, I believe the other candidates will ignore him as much as possible -- let liberal and blue dog support decline naturally based on his role in 2016 and his ideology, and his as you say. In any case, he'll of course attack frequently to draw media attention and try to pull the images of leaders to his level.

[Politicub]

11. But is he predictable to a fault.

And consistent. Both are a strength and a weakness.

For those reasons, I don't believe Bernie will lose support. That's the floor I think you're describing. People attuned to his message will have the comforting tug of confirmation bias to draw their attention away from other candidates. For undecided voters, he may be perceived as an underdog fighting against the chorus of voices united to bring him down. Or not.

That's for Bernie.

But, I believe Elizabeth Warren is going to shine during the debates and gain exposure with people who have not heard her speak. Right now, it's mainly wonky political types paying close attention. The circle of people paying attention will broaden with each debate. Visibility has been favorable for increasing Warren's numbers, and I don't see any signs of that stopping.

[Hortensis]

9. Given Biden's extremely broad support, his floor could never

in reality be lower than Sanders' very low one. Theoretically possible, yes, but extremely unlikely to happen.

Sanders' floor is so low because of what he is, and it is implacably firmer than all the others solely because of the Only-Bernie zealots, who promise to walk when he loses. And it's quite possible his support will fall to or close to that floor.

In contrast the entire nation knows Biden, most genuinely like and feel comfortable about him, and his very high support has been in spite of decades of attempts to smear him. Biden would crash to his floor only after some scandal so serious that it destroyed the appealing image a very broad range of the electorate has of him. (And just look at the abject failure of the absurd attempt to label him a sexual predator and even pederast. A lesson for the incoming to come.)

Also, might as well note that that new look is going to include at Sanders, which is very much a double-edged sword for him. It will also be natural for Sanders to lose some of his initial mainstream support to other candidates, while I at least have trouble imagining any significant or sustainable move the other direction, from mainstream to Sanders.

The huge threat to our nation these days is from the right. Sanders is at heart still a 1960s revolutionary, still trying to lead a class-warfare march that must always require taking over the Democratic Party, and never accomplishes even that. At every appearance I've seen, in one way or another he's shared his undying, 60-year-old belief that Democrats are actually just as bad/really just the same as Republicans. And this is an especially bad era to try to sell that eternally blind nonsense.

[NurseJackie]

12. Amen!