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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:09 PM Jun 2019

The Iowa Poll is in and it is showing statewide what we are seeing locally

Biden is leading, and Warren is coming on strong. I do not have it in front of me..There is just one point between Sanders and Warren. Buttigieg has made a huge huge move...just one point behind them.. I did not catch Harris.. but everyone else is 5% or less..

Listening to CNN cover it.. This is the first poll showing where we are since March..

EDIT to add... Biden 24% Sanders 16% Warren 15% and Buttigieg 14% Harris 7% everyone else is in the tank..

This is the first Iowa poll we have had with VP Biden in it.. and locally it was looking good, and so happy to see it is basically state wide.. this is good..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Iowa Poll is in and it is showing statewide what we are seeing locally (Original Post) Peacetrain Jun 2019 OP
still very early JI7 Jun 2019 #1
This is the Des Moines Register Poll with CNN.. that is the big one for us.. and you are right Peacetrain Jun 2019 #2
I remember Ann Selzer from 2016. She didn't just Hortensis Jun 2019 #34
Earlier polls had Biden and BS very close and/or tied.... George II Jun 2019 #3
Yep.. and the last time this poll was taken was in March Peacetrain Jun 2019 #4
Things are probably going to change quite a bit by next February, but.... George II Jun 2019 #13
Come on George, You know Biden didn't enter the race until the end of April. mobeau69 Jun 2019 #15
Thanks! Scurrilous Jun 2019 #5
It was a very nice set of numbers Peacetrain Jun 2019 #6
Doesn't match what Canvassers are reporting on the ground Indygram Jun 2019 #7
Source? Agschmid Jun 2019 #12
Hearsay... comradebillyboy Jun 2019 #17
I actually added Kamala to the list Indygram Jun 2019 #23
the source is the person whose tweet is posted JI7 Jun 2019 #18
The tweet was added as an edit, not part of the original post. Agschmid Jun 2019 #20
Correct...I had to go back and find it Indygram Jun 2019 #24
Thanks for doing the edit. Agschmid Jun 2019 #31
I added the tweet after I posted...I had to go back and find it again Indygram Jun 2019 #21
Anecdotal. cwydro Jun 2019 #35
Thanks for the info peggysue2 Jun 2019 #8
It is a real horse race for 2nd place.. it could not get any closer Peacetrain Jun 2019 #9
Really is . . . peggysue2 Jun 2019 #10
And consider this. A plurality of most others candidates supporters GulfCoast66 Jun 2019 #16
His numbers held up better that I thought they would before he entered Peacetrain Jun 2019 #22
Hey, he is leading on DU. GulfCoast66 Jun 2019 #25
I was just thinking about that, how close the DU poll is to the Iowa poll Peacetrain Jun 2019 #27
It's encouraging esp. since some earlier polls (even an earlier DMR/CNN poll) had it much closer. George II Jun 2019 #14
Polls before he entered the race. mobeau69 Jun 2019 #19
This whole thread cracks me up! mobeau69 Jun 2019 #11
you should be happy.. Mayor Pete really is doing quite well here Peacetrain Jun 2019 #26
I won't be happy until the con is gone. mobeau69 Jun 2019 #28
trump has accumulated more "baggage" in four years calguy Jun 2019 #30
Yeah, some are just so concerned about Cha Jun 2019 #32
Oh, why is that, mobeau? Cha Jun 2019 #29
Iowa polls and caucus is pure hype angrychair Jun 2019 #33
Iowa will send 49 delegates to the convention. MineralMan Jun 2019 #36
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
2. This is the Des Moines Register Poll with CNN.. that is the big one for us.. and you are right
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:12 PM
Jun 2019

its early...they do a really good job with this poll ..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
34. I remember Ann Selzer from 2016. She didn't just
Sun Jun 9, 2019, 09:02 AM
Jun 2019

ask how many Bernie Sanders voters would vote for Hillary but threw in another question with another word I think was "respect," or something of that general order, which overlapped the something like 90% of the first question almost entirely.

Thanks for posting. First debates June 26-27, less than 3 weeks. Almost all of IA's currently virtual unknowns will be there.

Wonder who former Sanders supporter Marianne Williamson will pull votes from? She's a very talented speaker, Sarah Palin level, and as far as positions go is basically echoing Sanders's. I'm already gritting my teeth for some post-debate ecstasies about how this wonderful person should be president.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
3. Earlier polls had Biden and BS very close and/or tied....
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:31 PM
Jun 2019

April Gravis Biden 19, BS 19
March Emerson Biden 25, BS 24
March Des Moines/CNN Biden 27, BS 25

Comparing tonight's Des Moines Register/CNN to the last one in March, Biden has opened his 2 point lead up to 8 points.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
4. Yep.. and the last time this poll was taken was in March
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:34 PM
Jun 2019

Locally this is exactly what I have been seeing , talking to people.. so I was so so pleased to see it play out statewide.. The next three are really in a horse race..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
13. Things are probably going to change quite a bit by next February, but....
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:11 PM
Jun 2019

....right now Biden is the only "sure" thing for winning delegates. At 16, 15, and 14% those other three are in danger of not getting any if don't stay at 15% or above.

What's interesting in this poll is that 99% of those polled have a choice. Virtually no "undecided"! So if this holds, Biden will get 25 delegates, BS 16, all the others none.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mobeau69

(11,078 posts)
15. Come on George, You know Biden didn't enter the race until the end of April.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:14 PM
Jun 2019


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
6. It was a very nice set of numbers
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:40 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
7. Doesn't match what Canvassers are reporting on the ground
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:47 PM
Jun 2019

A few days ago according to people out knocking on doors in Iowa the majority of the people said they were supporting Beto, Warren or Kamala.





(tweet is from someone who was on the ground canvassing people at Pride events today)
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
23. I actually added Kamala to the list
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:22 PM
Jun 2019

I wasn't sure of the third name from the tweet until I was able to find it to add to my post.

I also saw a canvasser from last weekend say the same thing about Beto, Warren and I'm pretty sure Kamala. Don't let the polls get to you. Beto has an army of canvassers working hard and if 2016 taught us anything at all it should be to NOT trust the polls, lol.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

JI7

(89,174 posts)
18. the source is the person whose tweet is posted
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:15 PM
Jun 2019

she is speaking about what she is hearing in Iowa.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
20. The tweet was added as an edit, not part of the original post.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:18 PM
Jun 2019

That’s why I asked.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
24. Correct...I had to go back and find it
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:23 PM
Jun 2019

And I had seen people canvassing saying something similar last weekend that when they are knocking on doors it's Beto, Warren and I am pretty sure the third person was Kamala. It was a different canvasser last weekend.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
31. Thanks for doing the edit.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 10:35 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Indygram

(2,113 posts)
21. I added the tweet after I posted...I had to go back and find it again
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:19 PM
Jun 2019

So that is likely why I was asked for a source.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
8. Thanks for the info
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:51 PM
Jun 2019

I read they'd be releasing poll numbers tonight and was definitely curious about the results. The good news? Biden is clearly in the lead with a logjam behind him: Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg.

Still early but the numbers are encouraging!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
9. It is a real horse race for 2nd place.. it could not get any closer
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 08:56 PM
Jun 2019

for Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg... Biden has a comfortable lead.. He has really picked up a lot of support since the March poll which was the last Register poll..Locally Sanders had dropped quite a bit of his support to Warren.. she is hot hot.. and Buttigieg has come on strong.. wow.. its good numbers..

edit to add.. picked up a lot of support over Sanders.. though he was not an official candidate in March.. they counted him in the poll and there we only a couple of points between them at the the time

Anything can happen.. but I am a happy camper

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
10. Really is . . .
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:02 PM
Jun 2019

tight as a tick for that 2nd place slot. I expect the debates will mix things up dramatically.

We shall see!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
16. And consider this. A plurality of most others candidates supporters
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:14 PM
Jun 2019

Pick Biden as their second choice.

I’m hoping that as candidates start bowing out they throw their support the the highest polling actual democratic candidate. Which their supporters are inclined to do anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
22. His numbers held up better that I thought they would before he entered
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:20 PM
Jun 2019

pretty happy with that..usually you have that first blush, and he has held on .. that last poll he was not in the race.. he is pretty solid..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
25. Hey, he is leading on DU.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:29 PM
Jun 2019

And as much as I love DU, I understand we are not an accurate reflection of the party as a whole. We are much more liberal. On DU I am considered moderate. At any Lake County, Florida Democratic meeting I would be on the liberal side.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
27. I was just thinking about that, how close the DU poll is to the Iowa poll
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:37 PM
Jun 2019

Amazing isn't it

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
14. It's encouraging esp. since some earlier polls (even an earlier DMR/CNN poll) had it much closer.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:13 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mobeau69

(11,078 posts)
19. Polls before he entered the race.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:15 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

mobeau69

(11,078 posts)
11. This whole thread cracks me up!
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:09 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
26. you should be happy.. Mayor Pete really is doing quite well here
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:36 PM
Jun 2019

He came out of nowhere and he is sitting at 14%.. that is a phenom move.. VP Biden did not dissolve as so many predicted.. he is holding his own and moved up.. he is doing great.. Senator Warren.. she has made up so much space.. Actually I was surprised how much Sen Sanders held on too.. talking locally.. (again that is my wheelhouse, what is happening in my county, but we Iowans do talk to each other) I had the impression he has lost more to Sen Warren..Kamala Harris is at 7%, and you have to look at it this way.. she is about the same distance between Mayor Pete as Sen Sanders is from VP Biden..these are good numbers for these candidates.. I am very pleased.. You are most likely looking at the top 5 the next President will come out of.. Unless something totally blows up someones campaign.. we are starting to sort out

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mobeau69

(11,078 posts)
28. I won't be happy until the con is gone.
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:47 PM
Jun 2019

Unfortunately, it's not in the bag just because Joe gets the nomination. I firmly believe we need to nominate one of our younger and more progressive leaders. Joe just has too damn much baggage! It's the sure pick that's gonna backfire on us. I hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling how this is gonna play out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

calguy

(5,222 posts)
30. trump has accumulated more "baggage" in four years
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 10:00 PM
Jun 2019

than Biden possibly accumulate in lifetime.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,907 posts)
32. Yeah, some are just so concerned about
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 10:43 PM
Jun 2019

VP Biden's long career going up against the Psycho from fucking hell.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(295,907 posts)
29. Oh, why is that, mobeau?
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 09:56 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

angrychair

(8,593 posts)
33. Iowa polls and caucus is pure hype
Sat Jun 8, 2019, 11:05 PM
Jun 2019

The Iowa caucus is an incredibly poor predictor of who the nominee will be and an even poorer predictor of winning the GE.

# of times since 1972 the winner of Dem Iowa caucus became the Nominee (out of 10 due to not counting 2nd term attempts of Clinton and Obama with no primary opponent of consequence):
5

# of times since 1972 the winner of Dem Iowa caucus also won the GE (out of 10, not counting 2nd term attempts of Clinton and Obama with no primary opponent of consequence):
1

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
36. Iowa will send 49 delegates to the convention.
Sun Jun 9, 2019, 11:27 AM
Jun 2019

That's it. Iowa used to be more important than it is for 2020. If I were a candidate, I think I'd be focusing heavily on what happens on March 3, instead of spending my time courting Iowans, frankly.

Why? Because California, which votes on March 3 this year, will send 495 delegates to the convention. Texas will send 262. North Caroline sends 122. Massachusetts will send 114. Even Minnesota, which is holding its first presidential primary in many years on March 3, will send 39. And so on...

Delegates matter. Odds are that this primary season will be pretty much locked up on March 4, 2020. The field will be reduced, in all likelihood, to just two candidates, and there will probably be a clear leader.

So, I'm not focused on Iowa. It might have been a crucial state in some elections, but with a field of 24 candidates, it's not crucial for this election.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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