Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumI am one of the 70% of Democrats who supports Biden on NAFTA/TPP and free trade in general
Biden can win the MidWest by embracing the TPP as is. Farmers and Caterpillar/Deere support the TPP. Trump has damaged the GOP in the Midwest with his opposition to TPP.
Nonetheless, a PoliticoMorning Consult national tracking poll in May found that upwards of 70% of registered Democratic primary voters said Bidens support of NAFTA and TPP would make them more likely to support him. The question moving forward is whether sustained attacks from Sanders and Trump will eat into that number and Bidens sizeable primary lead.
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/d3nwzq/joe-biden-has-a-progressive-trade-plan-to-attack-trump-bernie
It is time to push back on the lie that NAFTA cost the USA millions of jobs.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LibFarmer
(772 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,206 posts)to beat trump which means appealing to more than Dems. Biden can do that and we need to focus on that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)a transfer of wealth upward.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
riverine
(516 posts)See Andrew Yang who doesn't blame trade for the lost jobs. Yang rightly blames automation.
His solution is a UBI (which I think is politically unfeasible today).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brer cat
(24,401 posts)I'm glad he is running to get issues out for discussion although I don't think we are at a point where his solutions are feasible, such as UBI as you point out.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uawchild
(2,208 posts)from the OP:
Both Democrats and Republicans are a little all over the map on trade, said Sen. Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut. Democrats dont know what to make of the presidents moves on trade, because theres a lot of Democrats who have been calling for the country to get much tougher on China for a long time.
FREE TRADE SKEPTICS
Several national polls have found a general uptick in support for free trade, but if you drill down into the numbers, youll find voters are skeptical that free trade would be good for workers. A national Pew poll in September, for instance, found that although 74% of Americans believe trade is good for the country, only 36% believe it creates jobs and even fewer respondents believe it raises wages.
Surveys of union workers unsurprisingly show dismal support for the trade deals Biden supported. When the AFL-CIO polled its members in 2017, 65% said NAFTA was bad for working people and 72 percent said TPP would have been bad for American workers if it had gone into effect. That leaves questions about not only whether Biden can count on union members support in the primary but also whether he could gain back the ground Democrats lost to union households in the 2016 general election.
Nonetheless, a PoliticoMorning Consult national tracking poll in May found that upwards of 70% of registered Democratic primary voters said Bidens support of NAFTA and TPP would make them more likely to support him.
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So, just goes to show how wacky polling can be, eh? lol I don't think Americans are THAT inconsistent, I think the different polls are slanting their questions hence the disparate polling results.
If the Biden Campaign thinks running on support of NAFTA is the way to go, feel free. But I don't think it will win Joe the nomination nor do I think it would be a winning position in 2020.
Your mileage might vary.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
riverine
(516 posts)Sanders blames NAFTA for US auto jobs moving to the South. How stupid is that?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,206 posts)Regions pitted against each other for jobs. The US auto jobs moved south because of not wanting unions. I have a very negative opinion of the south, so I'll leave it at that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uawchild
(2,208 posts)Union support in the Rust Belt is essential.
NAFTA is detested in the rust belt, rightly or wrongly. If ANY candidate wants to run on a pro-NAFTA position, feel free, but its a loser.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
riverine
(516 posts)What do you expect? For them to blame themselves?
Yes, I am blaming the AFL/CIO for the exodus of auto companies from the MidWest to TN/AL/GA/SC/KY.
You certainly can't blame NAFTA for that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SWBTATTReg
(21,859 posts)and will pay almost any price to get these factories...and the companies know this too. They play the game well, and play each region and state against each other...another example of divided we fall, united we stand and it should not be allowed, but it is. States' rights, eh, among many reasons.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)all similar ideology.
It's one of the main reasons we have trump, and it's just another form of American greed, racism, bigotry, xenophobia, etc. Not good for us or the world.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,119 posts)Bill and Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Sanders and Warren's anti-trade positions are a real turn off for me.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
KPN
(15,587 posts)rejecting the notion that jobs were lost (millions when you look at the number of jobs outsourced across industries) and that wages were consequently negatively affected by the past free trade deals is flat out being in denial.
And Biden will not win if he embraces the TPP as is/was. As a whole, the 70% do not support the TPP as is or -- we should say -- was. Some support it out of sheer repudiation of anything Trump. And some support it because free trade as is doesn't negatively affect them personally or actually lines their own pockets while also providing cheap goods. But many support free trade deals that make good sense and are also fair trade deals. What they support is a reasoned, disciplined approach to trade that takes into account the welfare of American workers better -- due in part to hind-sight -- than past free trade deals.
Sanders, Warren and any other Dem candidate running can eat into Biden's lead by making that point if he does in fact embrace the TPP as is. I don't think he will do that. Instead, he will support exactly what Sanders and Warren support -- fair trade deals that take American workers and jobs into better account.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
riverine
(516 posts)populist protectionist claims of Trump/Warren/Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Turin_C3PO
(13,650 posts)Shes for FAIR free trade.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
uawchild
(2,208 posts)Oh boy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
riverine
(516 posts)Although for different reasons.
I make no bones about it. I am an Obama/Biden Democrat. I am not a Sanders/Warren Democrat (but would vote for them against Trump).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
betsuni
(25,128 posts)"The harvest of 2016, another record-breaking year of production of core commodity grains like corn and soybeans, pushed prices down again. Corn, in particular, has plummeted to less than half its market value of five years ago. Livestock prices have fallen simultaneously and at a rate that made it impossible to capture profits on that end. This downward spiral is already having broader effects. Cash-poor farmers aren't updating equipment ... . Worse still, farmers who took out loans for land or equipment at the peak of prices are starting to worry about their ability to service their debts -- and banks are growing nervous too.
"To break this downtrend, the American Farm Bureau Federation had been counting on President Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership, which promised to expand markets for beef, pork, and soybeans. But the rural areas that were depending on this new deal, as well as standing agreements such as NAFTA, voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump and his protectionist, antiglobalist policies. Trump is threatening to cancel manufacturing trade deals with China, and China is responding by threatening to cancel its purchases of American grains. At the same time Mexico is threatening to suspend its import of American corn. If such a thing were to happen, it would make the Farm Crisis seem like a ripple."
I don't know what the Trade is Bad people are talking about.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(143,999 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,666 posts)Last edited Mon Oct 7, 2019, 11:08 PM - Edit history (1)
I refuse to be gaslit on this. It also is outrageous to see opposition to TPP equated or insinuated or linked in any way to posit a form (or actual) support for Trump and Sanders. You can absolutely not be for either and still think the TTP was a bad thing. Support for deals like this is partially (the percentage is up for debate but is sure is not only 1%) why we have such discontent here in our nation, discontent that just further adds to the latent and overt sexism, racism, misogyny, and hate that monsters like Trump tapped into. It just gave him another arrow in his quiver of poison for his mob.
The TPP also would have been a fundamental driver for further wealth inequality, here and globally, and wealth inequality is the number one interlocked statistic when it comes to the well-being of a society on basically all levels of measurement.
Why TPP Is a Bad Deal for America and American Workers
BY JOSEPH STIGLITZ
http://rooseveltinstitute.org/why-tpp-bad-deal-america-and-american-workers/
the whole series
Tricks of the Trade Deal: Six Big Problems with the Trans-Pacific Partnership
http://rooseveltinstitute.org/tricks-trade-deal-six-big-problems-trans-pacific-partnership/
How to Tell TPP Is a Bad Deal
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-to-tell-tpp-is-a-bad_b_8914388
9 Ways the TPP Is Bad for Developing Countries
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/07/9-ways-the-tpp-is-bad-for-developing-countries/
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Is Unlikely to Be a Good Deal for American Workers
https://www.epi.org/publication/tpp-unlikely-to-be-good-deal-for-american-workers/
The TPP has the potential for real harm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-16/verrender-the-tpp-has-the-potential-for-real-harm/6321538
Ending the corporate power grab of Investor-State Dispute Settlement
https://www.citizen.org/topic/globalization-trade/corporate-power-expanded-isds/
How trade deals like TPP fail the global poor
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/11/6/9680538/tpp-development-trade-poverty
Robert Reich takes on the Trans-Pacific Partnership
How economic inequality harms societies | Richard Wilkinson
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
riverine
(516 posts)Venezuela and Cuba where trade is almost completely shut off and a few "elite" watch out for the serfs all day long.
Free trade countries are the healthiest and most prosperous in the world. Nordic countries embrace free trade - the very model Bernie Sanders claims to uphold. South Korea is a shining star in free trade and democracy. That can't be said for the Sanders wannabe countries.
President Obama compared the anti-TPP forces' scare tactics like you post above to Sarah Palin's "death panels".
I am with Obama 100%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(42,666 posts)Also, you are playing pure bait and switch with corporatist-written/friendly 'free trade' and actual fair trade. The Nordics are ardent opponents of the of most odious parts written into TTIP (which failed). The bad parts of TTIP and TPP are not necessary to achieve the overarching goals of have freer yet STILL FAIR trade.
Your allusion to us who are for free AND FAIR trade without the sinister baggage tossed in as being at the same level as 'death panel pushers' is pure tosh. Also, Obama was just dead wrong on this, IMHO, and he lost, justly so. Your 70% figure is also disingenuous as it is in regards to the general concept of free trade, it is not at all indicative of what the outcome would be if the major parts of TTP (especially the ISDS and the patent provisions) were specifically polled on.
I didn't post 'scare tactics'. My links to major (many non-partisan) globally respected sources, and backed up by numerous major economists (including Nobel Prize winners like Stiglitz).
I will ALWAYS vote and campaign for Democrats who are against bad, faux 'free' trade deals any chance I get. The only time would be if it was a Democrat who was pro-TPP versus a Rethug. I do not have that problem at present in terms of my Rep, Ted Lieu. He is 100% against these flawed, tainted deals.
https://lieu.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congressman-lieu-statement-trans-pacific-partnership
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Washington - Today, Congressman Ted W. Lieu (D | Los Angeles County) issued the following statement regarding the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Last year, I voted against Trade Promotion Authority because I did not believe a trade agreement with questionable environmental and labor provisions should be fast tracked for ratification. As I review the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership today, my concerns have only worsened.
I will not support an unfair trade deal that lacks enforceable environmental and labor standards. Specifically, I believe trade agreements must uphold President Obamas and other landmark climate regulations. They must ensure the protection of the environment, fish, and wildlife. Moreover, any agreement must put American workers first and strengthen, not weaken, labor protections.
It is unclear whether or not TPP will receive a vote in Congress this year, but in the meantime I will continue to listen to the deep concerns of my constituents.
Link to tweet
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/votes/114/house/1/374
https://lieu.house.gov/media-center/in-the-news/lieu-we-entrust
Trade policy
Lieu also listed his concerns to me about proposed secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) 12-nation trade agreement, which has been kept from the American public, while large corporations have been at the TPP negotiating table for years.
On July 12, Lieu was one of over two hundred House members who cast historic no votes that at least for now, prevent President Obama from receiving Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to negotiate the TPP. Also known as Fast Track authority, TPA would prevent the Congress from amending the TPP, and instead would only allow for a single up/down vote on it, once presented to them by the President.
Lieus concerns went beyond transparency, to concerns about the TPPs lack of a currency provision, which he argued means all enforcement mechanisms are ineffective, because countries can engage in mass cheating by manipulating their currency. He also cited experience with other trade agreements, that had the effect of hollowing out the middle class and leading to greater wage inequality by shipping jobs overseas and hurting the American worker.
But perhaps most insidiously he cited the TPPs Investor-State Dispute Settlement, or ISDS provision, that would allow foreign companies to challenge U.S. Laws and to potentially pick up huge payouts from taxpayers -without ever stepping foot in a U.S. court.
The ISDS would allow foreign companies to challenge any U.S. Law that protects public health, safety, the environment or workers, by arguing it unreasonably limited their profits from, say, Santa Monicas Sustainability Rights of Nature ordinance, to water rationing on farm land owned by foreign investors here in drought-stricken California. If a company wins, the ruling cant be challenged in U.S. courts, and secret arbitration panels can require American taxpayers to cough up millions even billions of dollars in damages, which would then also have a chilling effect on passing such future legislation.
Senate Democrats gang up to delay fast-track trade bill
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/senate-democrats-gang-up-to-delay-fast-track-trade-bill-idUSKBN0NX0B320150512
snip
The vote marked a victory for Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, an outspoken opponent of fast-track, after weeks of speculation that the toughest fight would be in the House of Representatives and not the Senate.
snip
Only one Democrat, Senator Tom Carper of Delaware, backed the measure, despite a White House campaign blitz to win Democratic support.
snip
Failure sends a worrying signal about the level of support for fast track, which is opposed by unions, environmental and consumer groups but backed by businesses, which reacted with disappointment.
snip
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,917 posts)was.
I knew he was going for the best for America.
Didn't buy the "scare tactics".
Thank You, riverine
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)have destroyed entire cities and jobs...the midlle class is mostly gone because of them. I voted for President Obama in spite of his trade views.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
KPN
(15,587 posts)that I was unwilling and somewhat unable to. I cant believe any Democrat who is truly in touch with common, everyday working Americans would support the TPP as is. As a means to leverage and compete with China, it may have had utility, but it ignored too many American workers in doing so. It chose winners which in itself made many if not most others losers. We can do far better than that.
One point I would make: Its outrageous to put Sanders in the same category with tRump on the TPP and free trade. Sanders has long called for fair as opposed to simply free trade deals via policy, regulation and trade deals that consider, better protect, and avoid significant adverse impact on, the American workforce. Sanders is not simple mindedly America First. For him, its America (or more clearly, American workers) too!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)Treaties have destroyed unions, jobs and American companies. They have decimated the midwest and benefitted few. Biden ws a a VP, he had to support Pres. Obama. And we need to fix trade. we have a bring jobs back....Trump tariffs are not going to work. In fact, they could destroy autos. This doesn't mean trade agreements as written now have worked or will ever work. The TPP was a terrible agreement which allowed slave owning countries to join.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)NAFTA is great. TPP would have been.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Crazyleftie
(458 posts)Both NAFTA and the TPP are really bad deals, concocted/written by the republican/corporate oligarchy. NAFTA was produced by Bush 1 and signed by republican-lite Clinton. The TPP was produced by Bush 2, and unfortunately promoted by Obama.
A anyone supporting these agreements is....well, somewhat un- or mis- informed.
Trade agreements are not necessarily bad, but these two certainly are!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided