Democratic Convention Rules

[uawchild]

The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which will be held July 13-16, 2020, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The national nominating convention is the formal ceremony during which the party officially selects its nominee. The delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state or territory at the convention.

In 2020, there will be an estimated 4,532 delegates: 3,768 pledged delegates and 764 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.[1]

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot—an estimated 1,885 pledged delegates. If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates—an estimated 2,267 delegates.[2] Roughly two-thirds of the delegates will have been allocated by the end of March 2020.

This page provides an overview of the types of delegates to the convention and a summary of delegates by state. Election dates, delegate counts, delegate allocation rules are subject to change as each state finalizes its delegation selection process.

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020

Let me make sure I understand this correctly....

On the FIRST BALLOT the delegates are pledged to vote initially for a specific candidate OR had to explicitly be pledge to be uncommitted before hand. If someone has a majority, they are the nominee.

On subsequent ballots the previously pledged delegates are free to change who they vote for. So supporters of different candidates can change their votes and give a majority to another candidate.

I know it's a simplistic question, but I really want to be absolutely clear on how the process works.

It might very well turn out that this year, with so many good people in the race, that no candidate will win the nomination on the first ballot. So, it could turn out that a candidate with the single most number of delegates on the first ballot (say 35% for example) might not end up winning the nomination if the remaining delegates get behind another single candidate.

Woah. This could get very interesting.

Thanks!

[brooklynite]

1. I've been hearing about "contested" or (even more exciting) "brokered" conventions for years...

It won't happen.

There may be marginal candidates, but if they have no chance of winning, they'll put out and throw their support to someone else.

[uawchild]

2. Consider this scenario...

What if the primary battle settles down to 3 candidates instead of 2 as it usually does.

This year, it is possible that Biden, Warren and Sanders could all be in it to the end and none of them get a first ballot majority.

What makes this somewhat more possible, in my opinion, is that all three candidates would be able to fund their campaigns thru the entire process. Also, Sanders seems more likely, again in my opinion, to stay in to keep the issues and concerns of his supporters in the forefront than most other candidates would.

But you are probably right, it most likely will come to a head to head contest for delegates. ( Personally, I believe between Joe Biden and Liz Warren. )

But, I would start being nice to Sanders' supporters just to be safe.

[George II]

6. Don't forget, after the first ballot the superdelegates get to vote.....

....I think there will be less than three years ago, maybe around 500 (don't think the exact number has been determined yet) The way I see it, if it's down to Biden, Warren, and BS, Biden and Warren will probably split almost all of them. Remember, they're superdelegates because of their long time work with the Democratic Party over the years as well as elected Democratic legislators. When it comes down to support for a candidate who has been a Democrat for years vs. one for just a short period of time, they're going to go with the long term Democrat.

Also, although the pledged delegates are free to vote for whoever they want after the first ballot, chances are the candidates who drop out will urge their delegates to vote for a long term Democrat.

[uawchild]

8. Warren is the mostly likely Nominee if it goes to a second ballot

Yep, the super delegates get to vote after the first ballot.

But if it came down to Biden versus Warren, both respected Democratic figures, I really don't think they would go against the will of the majority of "pledged" delegates on a second ballot.

Doing that would be a disaster in the general election.

So, even if Warren does not win on the first ballot, she would have great shot at prevailing on the second. Warren seems a more likely second choice for Sanders' supporters than Biden, in my opinion.

Don't just focus on Biden-Sanders... Sanders will not be getting the nomination, it's all about whether Biden will or someone like Warren will be our nominee.

[brooklynite]

12. If Warren isn't tied with Biden at the end of the Primary season, she'll drop out...

...and endorse Biden. Most candidates will not say "even though I got fewer elected delegates I can win in a disruptive Convention."

[uawchild]

13. That's an interesting take

So, the candidate with just a plurality of delegates going into the convention would win because the second place finisher would not want to win on a second ballot, they would drop out?

Huh.

I never considered that as a possibility.

Honestly, it's the Presidency, that's an awfully tempting job, I am not convinced that the second place finisher would drop out, especially if the third place finisher and they shared similar positions.

Huh.

I suppose it all depends on how close the top two candidates are in delegates. Good point.

Tied, essentially tied, neck and neck, close, trailing... seems like it would be a hard call judging that on a sliding scale. I can see if the first place candidate's plurality was significantly (there's a weasel word again) higher then second place total that the latter would concede.

Thanks for that viewpoint. Good food for thought.

[brooklynite]

14. The ego drive to win the nomination is indeed strong...

...but most of the candidates are smart enough to know from history that a discordant Convention doesn't lay the groundwork for a unified Party supporting the eventual nominee. (see 1956, 1972, 1980).

[The Mouth]

16. In my understanding, that's also the reason for Superdelegates

Their job is to keep the convention from going on and on making us Democrats appear to not have our act together.

I know in the last election, lots of people didn't seen to understand, or care, that it was to avoid a repeat of 1972 with seemingly endless ballots and a decision reached in the middle of the night.

It needs to be a fine balance- we can't be *too* lockstep and prefabricated seeming, but it can't be anarchy, protests and disruption, either.

[Gothmog]

17. I was at the Philadelphia convention and that was not a fun convention

[murielm99]

3. Sanders is not going to be the nominee.

[uawchild]

4. Sanders might be the "Kingmaker", so to speak

I think Biden and Warren will both get more delegates, ultimately, then Sanders.

I also think that Warren will probably win the nomination on the first ballot.

But there is a not insignificant chance that Sanders might get enough delegates to force a second ballot at the convention.

Soooo, like I say jokingly, mostly, it might be smart to start being nice to the Sanders' supporters, just to be safe.

[murielm99]

5. Sanders is losing support all the time.

People who supported him previously are going to Warren and Buttigieg.

He's no kingmaker, not with the way he and his followers treat Democrats.

[uawchild]

7. Buttigieg is another possible "kingmaker"

Sander's and Buttigieg BOTH could end up with significant number of delegates that could force a second ballot.

Or not. Time will tell.

Thanks for the discussion.

[George II]

9. I don't think so, Buttigieg is only polling in double digits in Iowa, a Midwestern state....

...and he's from (almost) neighboring Indiana, another Midwestern state. He's not doing very well in any of the other three early states (New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) Also remember, if he doesn't get over 15% he won't have any delegates (other than a small smattering in a few districts where he gets over 15%) with which to become a "kingmaker".

With all the "minor" candidates splitting a big chunk of voters, they'll be keeping many of their fellow candidates below that magic 15%. Until some start to drop out, I can see Biden and Sanders getting all of the delegates, and maybe even in a state or two Biden might get ALL the delegates since the minor candidates may even keep Sanders below 15%!

[uawchild]

10. Interesting points, but lets look forward...

The trend line seems to be that Warren will also move way above the 15% threshold when the field thins out.

I see Liz eventually getting more delegates than Bernie actually. She will certainly be above the 15% cutoff by the time of the first caucus and primaries.

For the entire primary campaign, what seems most probable to me is this:

Biden maintains his core support in the 40-45% range
Warren comes on strong and also gets around 40%
Sanders, being Sanders, doesn't drop out even when it's clear he can't get more than, say, 15-20% of the delegates.

This would force a second ballot at the convention.

Sander's has a following and he has the money to stay in until the end to push for his positions. He has the crusading type personality to want to do that too.

I know, I know... second ballots never happen. But it sure seems at least possible that a second ballot might happen in 2020.

Hey, it will be interesting to see what shakes out.

[LibFarmer]

18. hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[MineralMan]

11. Only those candidates who earn delegates in the primaries or caucuses

will be available for nomination at the convention. Most of the 24 will not receive 15% of the vote in any district and, so, will not have any delegates pledged to them. It is unlikely that more than 4 will actually have enough delegates to matter, frankly.

[Gothmog]

15. I was a Clinton pledged delegate to the Philadelphia National Convention

Under DNC rules all delegates even pledged delegates are allowed to change their vote at any time (though if they announced prior to the start of the convention, they could be removed and replaced by the campaign). Under DNC rules, each candidate has absolute approval rights over their delegates and so each real campaign carefully vet their delegates. I know that I was vetted and I helped to vet other Clinton delegates. The other reason for vetting one's delegates is that these delegates represent the campaign.

The vetting process also works in that it gets delegates who are long time members of the party. I remember one delegate complaining that I got to be a delegate after only 16 years of party work and it took her 30+ years. Once you are seated at the convention, then the campaign cannot remove and replace you with an alternative. If nothing else, the Secret Service would have to be notified and they would have to provide new credentials to the replacement delegate. There is a ton of security at the convention

Many sanders delegates were very active in attempting to get Clinton delegates to change their votes. For example I was at a mini-riot at the Texas Delegation breakfast. Every morning you had to pick up new credentials and there was breakfast for all delegates to discuss events and to listen to candidates and other speakers. On the Monday breakfast, I signed the petition to place Clinton on the ballot. Under the rules one needs 300 delegates to sign a petition. The vote for the nomination was on Tuesday. The first round ballot were all recorded on a form that you signed and indicated your vote prior to the breakfast when you picked up your credentials.
I was at the Texas delegation breakfast when a group of sanders delegates marched in and demanded that we condemn Clinton and change our votes to sanders.

sanders spoke to the Texas delegation the next morning and his speech was again solely about himself. There was a mini-riot due to his delegates the prior morning and the only thing that sanders talked about was himself. Finally a group of sanders delegates yelled at my daughter and called her the c-Word because she would not try to get me to change my vote. That tactic was not very effective.

I am fairly sure that no Clinton delegate flipped to sanders. Most if not all of us had signed the election tally form prior to the breakfast. The tactics used by the sanders delegates will not work on hard core democrats who have worked for years inside the party. The more that I was yelled at by sanders delegates, the more determined I became to honor my pledge and to cast my ballot for Clinton.

It is possible to change one's vote at the convention. I can see one or more candidates with delegates cutting deals to get their delegates to support the front runner in they determine that the front runner is electable Again, the campaigns normally vet delegates and so there will be a number of hard core democrats who have worked inside the party for a long time who will want to do what is best for the party.

I really hope that there is not another mini-riot at the next convention.

Again, this could be an interesting convention