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Undecided 36%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden13%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris8%

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:31 AM

 

Is Bernie Sanders Finished?


Democrats like him. They just show no signs of wanting to vote for him this time around.

By Jonathan Bernstein
June 10, 2019, 6:33 AM EDT

At least a dozen Democratic presidential candidates have plausible paths to the nomination. Maybe more than that. And after the 2016 election, Iím not counting anyone out. That said: I think itís starting to sink in that Senator Bernie Sanders is right at the fringes of plausibility. At best.

Thatís what Iím seeing from the mainstream media, some liberal bloggers and sophisticated polling analysis. Recent Iowa polls show Sanders at about 15%, essentially in a three-person race for second place with Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Thatís for a candidate who won half the vote there in 2016.

And while Sanders is faring somewhat better nationally, thatís mainly because almost all the other candidates remain unknown to voters. As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say theyíre definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, itís entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldnít be much of a factor.

Sanders does have some assets, of course. That 8% matches former Vice President Joe Bidenís dedicated voters, and no one else registers as more than a rounding error at this point. If itís true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.

more
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-10/bernie-sanders-might-not-be-a-viable-2020-contender
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 42 replies Author Time Post
Reply Is Bernie Sanders Finished? (Original post)
DonViejo Jun 2019 OP
Gothmog Jun 2019 #1
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #2
Funtatlaguy Jun 2019 #3
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #5
Funtatlaguy Jun 2019 #7
comradebillyboy Jun 2019 #15
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #18
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #23
Cha Jun 2019 #30
cwydro Jun 2019 #32
thesquanderer Jun 2019 #35
customerserviceguy Jun 2019 #24
SidDithers Jun 2019 #4
Tom Rinaldo Jun 2019 #6
watoos Jun 2019 #9
cwydro Jun 2019 #33
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #25
Gothmog Jun 2019 #41
McKim Jun 2019 #8
FBaggins Jun 2019 #10
customerserviceguy Jun 2019 #26
FBaggins Jun 2019 #29
customerserviceguy Jun 2019 #34
Blue_Tires Jun 2019 #11
aikoaiko Jun 2019 #12
customerserviceguy Jun 2019 #27
Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #37
Stellar Jun 2019 #13
Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #39
Stellar Jun 2019 #40
MineralMan Jun 2019 #14
uawchild Jun 2019 #16
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #19
Maven Jun 2019 #17
sacto95834 Jun 2019 #22
Cha Jun 2019 #31
lillypaddle Jun 2019 #20
mopinko Jun 2019 #21
Mike Nelson Jun 2019 #28
Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #38
Gothmog Jun 2019 #36
Gothmog Jun 2019 #42

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:32 AM

1. Good article

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:34 AM

2. The handwriting is on the wall nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:35 AM

3. This is way too soon. Bernie has a strong base/money.

 

His biggest concern is Warren and Pete possibly taking some of his voters.
(Younger, higher educated, white liberals).
If they are on the same debate stage, I will be particularly interested in watching Warrens interactions with Bernie (and, for that matter, her interaction withBiden).
It seems like Warren is heading into the June debate, now only 16 days away, with the most momentum.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #3)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:46 AM

5. Your second half

 

Explains Bernie's problem, Warren cuts into his voting pool and is more dynamic than him this time around.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #5)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:51 AM

7. Yes, she seems like a happier, younger acting version of Bernie.

 

Even though their ages arenít that far apart.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #7)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:07 AM

15. Casting Warren as a version of Bernie is an insult to Warren.

 

She isn't his clone, she isn't his follower and aside from being fairly progressive she isn't anything like him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to comradebillyboy (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:58 AM

18. IKR?

 

Sen. Warren has detailed policies showing how things will work and get paid for.

Bernie only has slogans.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to comradebillyboy (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:26 PM

23. I think you ascribe ill intent

 

where none was intended. Bernie has a ROLE in the process...the progressive candidate.
Warren fits that exact same ROLE, except she's more vibrant, and filling that role better at this moment.

I'm fairly certain that was the comparison intended, not casting her as a "Clone" of Bernie or as a "follower."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to comradebillyboy (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:40 PM

30. Right..

 

No "version".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to comradebillyboy (Reply #15)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:55 PM

32. This.

 

Thank you.

I donít see Bernie and Warren as having ANYthing in common.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to cwydro (Reply #32)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 07:15 PM

35. They have plenty in common.

 

They are white senior citizens from the northeast, with policies that align more with the left side of the party. They appeal to many of the same potential voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #3)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:29 PM

24. Bernie stands a high chance

 

of his first debate being with either Warren or Buttigieg as a direct opponent. If he draws them both, he'll really have a battle on his hands.

I can't see the two of them going after each other so much, they need to take down Sanders and/or Biden if they have the chance to do so.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:41 AM

4. Hope so...nt

 

Sid
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:49 AM

6. Dumb. It wasn't that long ago that pundits were thinking Elizabeth Warren was done

 

Or that Beto was 2020's Obama. Or that Harris was on a rocket trajectory to the top. The most recent buzz has been that Biden is an avalanche that can't be stopped. Now that buzz is starting to fray a little around the edges.And all of those earlier predictions proved wrong but they may yet again prove right.

Pundits get paid to do punditry. And they get paid better if they can come up with a new click worthy angle on a political story, the more startling the better. "Sanders does have some assets of course", which of course begs the question "Is Bernie Sanders finished?"

This is the season when people try on candidates like tee shirts. Should I go with my usual color palette or try out something more daring? Should I shop at my usual store or check out that new place that opened up one town over?

There hasn't even been a single debate yet, and twelve are scheduled. Sure there are negative tea leaves available to be read about Bernie's chances. They may prove correct in their prognosis. Or they may not. Every day is a news cycle. Every month is a political near eternity, and the impact of a single day grows ever more powerful once the calendar flips from 2019 to 2020 when January finally arrives. And STILL not a single primary or caucus vote will have been cast.

I am fine with this type of political speculation when it doesn't over reach. "Troubling indicators for Sanders?", OK. "Is Bernie Sanders finished?", dumb.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #6)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:56 AM

9. Well said,

 

who's next on the chopping block? We certainly don't need to eat our own.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to watoos (Reply #9)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:56 PM

33. Tell Bernie's aides and supporters that.

 

Eating our own, indeed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #6)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:32 PM

25. I think the difference is

 

that:

1. Warren didn't have the name recognition that Sanders did. He started off with an advantage and he's taken it, well, nowhere.
2. Meanwhile, his primary competition for the same voter pool (Warren) is rising. That's not good news for Biden. Even if she tapers off a bit, what I think is clear is that she's not going to fall of the map either. Thus, there's little reason to believe through at least Super Tuesday, that Sanders is not going to consolidate the progressive vote.
3. Biden could also lose some ground (and already has) but there's no reason to believe he too is going to fall off the map, or that his votes will go to Bernie vice one of the other top candidates.

Thus, you have a situation where Bernie seems capped. There's probably a minimum he won't fall below, but there's also probably a maximum he won't rise above.

To me, then, you are looking at a muddled mess of choices and ultimately some sort of compromise candidate, which Bernie is never going to be.

So, IMO, and I've said this from the start...Bernie's ceiling is too low to win the nomination. Maybe if Warren had sat out, but she's in, so I think to a certain extent barring some sort of political earthquake he is "finished."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #6)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:30 PM

41. Warren leapfrogs Sanders in a new pair of 2020 polls

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:53 AM

8. No, People are Giving Him Money

 

No, people are not tired of Bernie Sanderís ideas. People are giving him money to keep him talking about his ideas which this country sorely needs. If his ideas are not in the platform, we are sunk!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 08:59 AM

10. Why not speculate on candidates who are actually sub 1% ???

 

Strange that anyone would even as the question of the top-ranked opponent to the current front runner
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #10)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:33 PM

26. Because there's no interest in doing so

 

Anybody who is sub-1% at this point, and who stays that way after the first debate (not qualifying to make that debate would be a major factor) will be gone by the second or third debate. Not worth reading about, thus, not worth writing about.

The top five or six candidates are the ones most newsworthy at this point in the election cycle.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to customerserviceguy (Reply #26)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 03:55 PM

29. That doesn't really change the question

 

"Top five or six" gets us down to less than 1/4th of Sanders' support levels. It's still a valid question re: why the second-highest support level candidate needs to be doubted before a single vote is case.

Moreover... your position is directly refuted by the article itself (which posits that there are at least a dozen candidates with plausible paths to the nomination). That takes us well into the sub-1% range.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #29)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 05:45 PM

34. Plausible path

 

is miles away from likely path. At some point, we will be where anybody under Kamala Harris' current level will just go away, or be ignored. The sooner we can get to that point, the better it will be in my opinion.

In the meantime, there will be plenty of fighting and sniping that will intensify as Iowa approaches. That will be an obstacle for the eventual nominee to overcome.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 09:15 AM

11. Wow... It's almost like everything I said

 

would happen with Sanders is actually happening... Just like it did in 2016...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Kamala Harris

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 09:30 AM

12. As a former Bernie Sanders primary voter, I hope he stays in until the convention

 


regardless of his chances of winning. He's helping the Democratic Party be a better Democratic Party.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #12)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:35 PM

27. If Warren

 

can top him in the polls by a bit better than the margin of error, it's time for him to step aside. If he stages a repeat performance of 2016 (or at least his supporters do), he won't be doing us any favors.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to aikoaiko (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:22 PM

37. No in 16 ...we lost Get the hell out and lets start beating Trump.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 09:35 AM

13. So true,so true.

 

If itís true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Stellar (Reply #13)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:24 PM

39. He is not well liked.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #39)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 07:55 AM

40. By you.

 

And Biden's favorability is decreasing by the week. They were once way up in double digits and now...no more double digits. When he finally let go of Obama's hand they slide down with a quickness.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 09:36 AM

14. I wouldn't put it that way at all.

 

No, he's not finished. He's just in a primary race with a lot of other qualified, smart, progressive candidates. People have many more choices than they did the last time he ran.

And many are choosing someone else to support in this early stage of the campaign.

While I don't think Senator Sanders has much of a chance of being the Democratic nominee, I could say the same for many others who are running, too. The 2020 race is a brand new race, with brand new issues to consider. Since his last run for the nomination, we've all seen what Donald Trump has brought to the White House.

This is not 2016. It is 2020, and the game is different, as are almost all of the players.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:28 AM

16. Brokered convention!

 

I want to grab full credit for calling it first.

Seriously, It could very well shape up that NO candidate gets a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention.

Usually these races boil down to a one versus one showdown, but I can see Biden, Warren and Sanders ending up with the most delegates and none of them have over 50%. Harris could definitely end up with a significant number of delegates also.

It might be a very interesting convention. Time will tell.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Cory Booker

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Response to uawchild (Reply #16)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 11:01 AM

19. There won't be a brokered convention. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:57 AM

17. "Democrats like him"

 

Except, you know, for the many Democrats who can't stand him.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Maven (Reply #17)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:25 PM

22. Yes

 

But in this field, I don't think you can be taken seriously if you don't have part of the party who disagree with you. It's kind of who we are; the Democrats have always come from different walks of life and see so many different ways to address a problem. Somewhere in that chaos of ideas lies the way forward.

In the end, I think that being different from each other is our greatest strength....and its when we work together there is nothing we can't do.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Maven (Reply #17)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:43 PM

31. Yeah, there may

 

be a few of them. Can't imagine why

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 11:02 AM

20. God, I hope so!

 

Done, finished, gone.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 11:19 AM

21. we are passed peak bernie.

 

by 2 years.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 02:43 PM

28. While I don't believe...

 

Ö he'll win, he's not finished. He has a loyal following - and can raise money. He will want to have delegates at the convention, and may hold out until the very end.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Mike Nelson (Reply #28)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:23 PM

38. And if this causes us to lose that will be a hell of a legacy.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 06:25 PM

36. If you look at Nate Silver's polling, sanders may not get delegates in a number of states

 

From the article cited in the OP
As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say theyíre definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, itís entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldnít be much of a factor.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Wed Jun 19, 2019, 04:18 PM

42. someone's extra grouchy today. Must be Warren passing him in the polls

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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