Is Bernie Sanders Finished?

[DonViejo]

Democrats like him. They just show no signs of wanting to vote for him this time around.

By Jonathan Bernstein
June 10, 2019, 6:33 AM EDT

At least a dozen Democratic presidential candidates have plausible paths to the nomination. Maybe more than that. And after the 2016 election, I’m not counting anyone out. That said: I think it’s starting to sink in that Senator Bernie Sanders is right at the fringes of plausibility. At best.

That’s what I’m seeing from the mainstream media, some liberal bloggers and sophisticated polling analysis. Recent Iowa polls show Sanders at about 15%, essentially in a three-person race for second place with Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. That’s for a candidate who won half the vote there in 2016.

And while Sanders is faring somewhat better nationally, that’s mainly because almost all the other candidates remain unknown to voters. As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say they’re definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, it’s entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldn’t be much of a factor.

Sanders does have some assets, of course. That 8% matches former Vice President Joe Biden’s dedicated voters, and no one else registers as more than a rounding error at this point. If it’s true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.

more
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-10/bernie-sanders-might-not-be-a-viable-2020-contender

[Gothmog]

1. Good article

[LibFarmer]

2. The handwriting is on the wall nt

[Funtatlaguy]

3. This is way too soon. Bernie has a strong base/money.

His biggest concern is Warren and Pete possibly taking some of his voters.
(Younger, higher educated, white liberals).
If they are on the same debate stage, I will be particularly interested in watching Warrens interactions with Bernie (and, for that matter, her interaction withBiden).
It seems like Warren is heading into the June debate, now only 16 days away, with the most momentum.

[qazplm135]

5. Your second half

Explains Bernie's problem, Warren cuts into his voting pool and is more dynamic than him this time around.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Yes, she seems like a happier, younger acting version of Bernie.

Even though their ages aren’t that far apart.

[comradebillyboy]

15. Casting Warren as a version of Bernie is an insult to Warren.

She isn't his clone, she isn't his follower and aside from being fairly progressive she isn't anything like him.

[LibFarmer]

18. IKR?

Sen. Warren has detailed policies showing how things will work and get paid for.

Bernie only has slogans.

[qazplm135]

23. I think you ascribe ill intent

where none was intended. Bernie has a ROLE in the process...the progressive candidate.
Warren fits that exact same ROLE, except she's more vibrant, and filling that role better at this moment.

I'm fairly certain that was the comparison intended, not casting her as a "Clone" of Bernie or as a "follower."

[Cha]

30. Right..

No "version".

[cwydro]

32. This.

Thank you.

I don’t see Bernie and Warren as having ANYthing in common.

[thesquanderer]

35. They have plenty in common.

They are white senior citizens from the northeast, with policies that align more with the left side of the party. They appeal to many of the same potential voters.

[customerserviceguy]

24. Bernie stands a high chance

of his first debate being with either Warren or Buttigieg as a direct opponent. If he draws them both, he'll really have a battle on his hands.

I can't see the two of them going after each other so much, they need to take down Sanders and/or Biden if they have the chance to do so.

[SidDithers]

4. Hope so...nt

Sid

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Dumb. It wasn't that long ago that pundits were thinking Elizabeth Warren was done

Or that Beto was 2020's Obama. Or that Harris was on a rocket trajectory to the top. The most recent buzz has been that Biden is an avalanche that can't be stopped. Now that buzz is starting to fray a little around the edges.And all of those earlier predictions proved wrong but they may yet again prove right.

Pundits get paid to do punditry. And they get paid better if they can come up with a new click worthy angle on a political story, the more startling the better. "Sanders does have some assets of course", which of course begs the question "Is Bernie Sanders finished?"

This is the season when people try on candidates like tee shirts. Should I go with my usual color palette or try out something more daring? Should I shop at my usual store or check out that new place that opened up one town over?

There hasn't even been a single debate yet, and twelve are scheduled. Sure there are negative tea leaves available to be read about Bernie's chances. They may prove correct in their prognosis. Or they may not. Every day is a news cycle. Every month is a political near eternity, and the impact of a single day grows ever more powerful once the calendar flips from 2019 to 2020 when January finally arrives. And STILL not a single primary or caucus vote will have been cast.

I am fine with this type of political speculation when it doesn't over reach. "Troubling indicators for Sanders?", OK. "Is Bernie Sanders finished?", dumb.

[watoos]

9. Well said,

who's next on the chopping block? We certainly don't need to eat our own.

[cwydro]

33. Tell Bernie's aides and supporters that.

Eating our own, indeed.

[qazplm135]

25. I think the difference is

that:

1. Warren didn't have the name recognition that Sanders did. He started off with an advantage and he's taken it, well, nowhere.
2. Meanwhile, his primary competition for the same voter pool (Warren) is rising. That's not good news for Biden. Even if she tapers off a bit, what I think is clear is that she's not going to fall of the map either. Thus, there's little reason to believe through at least Super Tuesday, that Sanders is not going to consolidate the progressive vote.
3. Biden could also lose some ground (and already has) but there's no reason to believe he too is going to fall off the map, or that his votes will go to Bernie vice one of the other top candidates.

Thus, you have a situation where Bernie seems capped. There's probably a minimum he won't fall below, but there's also probably a maximum he won't rise above.

To me, then, you are looking at a muddled mess of choices and ultimately some sort of compromise candidate, which Bernie is never going to be.

So, IMO, and I've said this from the start...Bernie's ceiling is too low to win the nomination. Maybe if Warren had sat out, but she's in, so I think to a certain extent barring some sort of political earthquake he is "finished."

[Gothmog]

41. Warren leapfrogs Sanders in a new pair of 2020 polls

Link to tweet

[McKim]

8. No, People are Giving Him Money

No, people are not tired of Bernie Sander’s ideas. People are giving him money to keep him talking about his ideas which this country sorely needs. If his ideas are not in the platform, we are sunk!

[FBaggins]

10. Why not speculate on candidates who are actually sub 1% ???

Strange that anyone would even as the question of the top-ranked opponent to the current front runner

[customerserviceguy]

26. Because there's no interest in doing so

Anybody who is sub-1% at this point, and who stays that way after the first debate (not qualifying to make that debate would be a major factor) will be gone by the second or third debate. Not worth reading about, thus, not worth writing about.

The top five or six candidates are the ones most newsworthy at this point in the election cycle.

[FBaggins]

29. That doesn't really change the question

"Top five or six" gets us down to less than 1/4th of Sanders' support levels. It's still a valid question re: why the second-highest support level candidate needs to be doubted before a single vote is case.

Moreover... your position is directly refuted by the article itself (which posits that there are at least a dozen candidates with plausible paths to the nomination). That takes us well into the sub-1% range.

[customerserviceguy]

34. Plausible path

is miles away from likely path. At some point, we will be where anybody under Kamala Harris' current level will just go away, or be ignored. The sooner we can get to that point, the better it will be in my opinion.

In the meantime, there will be plenty of fighting and sniping that will intensify as Iowa approaches. That will be an obstacle for the eventual nominee to overcome.

[Blue_Tires]

11. Wow... It's almost like everything I said

would happen with Sanders is actually happening... Just like it did in 2016...

[aikoaiko]

12. As a former Bernie Sanders primary voter, I hope he stays in until the convention

regardless of his chances of winning. He's helping the Democratic Party be a better Democratic Party.

[customerserviceguy]

27. If Warren

can top him in the polls by a bit better than the margin of error, it's time for him to step aside. If he stages a repeat performance of 2016 (or at least his supporters do), he won't be doing us any favors.

[Demsrule86]

37. No in 16 ...we lost Get the hell out and lets start beating Trump.

[Stellar]

13. So true,so true.

If it’s true that any candidate can catch fire and surge in the polls, then Sanders definitely starts a step ahead of everyone but Biden. He also has plenty of money and the capacity for raising more. He remains well-liked by Democrats.

[Demsrule86]

39. He is not well liked.

[Stellar]

40. By you.

And Biden's favorability is decreasing by the week. They were once way up in double digits and now...no more double digits. When he finally let go of Obama's hand they slide down with a quickness.

[MineralMan]

14. I wouldn't put it that way at all.

No, he's not finished. He's just in a primary race with a lot of other qualified, smart, progressive candidates. People have many more choices than they did the last time he ran.

And many are choosing someone else to support in this early stage of the campaign.

While I don't think Senator Sanders has much of a chance of being the Democratic nominee, I could say the same for many others who are running, too. The 2020 race is a brand new race, with brand new issues to consider. Since his last run for the nomination, we've all seen what Donald Trump has brought to the White House.

This is not 2016. It is 2020, and the game is different, as are almost all of the players.

[uawchild]

16. Brokered convention!

I want to grab full credit for calling it first.

Seriously, It could very well shape up that NO candidate gets a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention.

Usually these races boil down to a one versus one showdown, but I can see Biden, Warren and Sanders ending up with the most delegates and none of them have over 50%. Harris could definitely end up with a significant number of delegates also.

It might be a very interesting convention. Time will tell.

[LibFarmer]

19. There won't be a brokered convention. nt

[Maven]

17. "Democrats like him"

Except, you know, for the many Democrats who can't stand him.

[sacto95834]

22. Yes

But in this field, I don't think you can be taken seriously if you don't have part of the party who disagree with you. It's kind of who we are; the Democrats have always come from different walks of life and see so many different ways to address a problem. Somewhere in that chaos of ideas lies the way forward.

In the end, I think that being different from each other is our greatest strength....and its when we work together there is nothing we can't do.

[Cha]

31. Yeah, there may

be a few of them. Can't imagine why

[lillypaddle]

20. God, I hope so!

Done, finished, gone.

[mopinko]

21. we are passed peak bernie.

by 2 years.

[Mike Nelson]

28. While I don't believe...

… he'll win, he's not finished. He has a loyal following - and can raise money. He will want to have delegates at the convention, and may hold out until the very end.

[Demsrule86]

38. And if this causes us to lose that will be a hell of a legacy.

[Gothmog]

36. If you look at Nate Silver's polling, sanders may not get delegates in a number of states

From the article cited in the OP

As Nate Silver points out, only about 8% of Democrats say they’re definitely supporting Sanders. In other words, it’s entirely plausible that Sanders could fail to reach the delegate threshold in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina (and possibly New Hampshire). Even if he stayed in, he probably wouldn’t be much of a factor.

[Gothmog]

42. someone's extra grouchy today. Must be Warren passing him in the polls

Link to tweet