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Undecided 36%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden13%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris8%

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:28 AM

 

Biden supporters should hope that Bernie Sanders never drops out of this race

because if Sanders eventually drops out, there's a good chance that Elizabeth Warren will walk away with the Democratic nomination when most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math.

Even if Bernie doesn't drop out, Biden might do so poorly in the debates that Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Beto, and a few others will likely catch him in the polls, regardless. Warren and Buttigieg are gaining momentum while Biden's early momentum is already slipping, but if Bernie drops out of the race, I think Biden's presidential hopes will quickly be dashed for the 3rd straight time.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Biden supporters should hope that Bernie Sanders never drops out of this race (Original post)
mtnsnake Jun 2019 OP
DrToast Jun 2019 #1
Hortensis Jun 2019 #21
JI7 Jun 2019 #2
ananda Jun 2019 #3
wyldwolf Jun 2019 #4
Gothmog Jun 2019 #19
George II Jun 2019 #5
uawchild Jun 2019 #7
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #11
uawchild Jun 2019 #24
left-of-center2012 Jun 2019 #6
watoos Jun 2019 #8
George II Jun 2019 #13
genxlib Jun 2019 #9
mainstreetonce Jun 2019 #12
Ace Rothstein Jun 2019 #15
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #10
Gothmog Jun 2019 #20
cwydro Jun 2019 #22
still_one Jun 2019 #14
Cha Jun 2019 #25
still_one Jun 2019 #27
samnsara Jun 2019 #16
LanternWaste Jun 2019 #17
karynnj Jun 2019 #18
Cha Jun 2019 #23
mtnsnake Jun 2019 #29
EveHammond13 Jun 2019 #26
Butterflylady Jun 2019 #28
SouthernProgressive Jun 2019 #30

Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:31 AM

1. Nope...Biden beats everyone head to head.

 

Former vice president Joe Biden’s status as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 is highlighted in a new poll, which suggests he is not only the current favorite in the crowded field of candidates, but that he would remain the favorite even if he were running against a single Democratic opponent.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/25/18639755/joe-biden-new-poll-beat-democratic-candidate-2020-one-on-one-race
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to DrToast (Reply #1)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:04 PM

21. Yes. This is tested various ways. The OP ignores also

 

that Sanders has both a LW sorta-socialist faction (because he is) and a populist faction that includes a lot of people who lean socially conservative; his dissenting class-warfare revolution and hostility toward Democrats are what unite them. Then there's the usual goulash of regular Democrats who think he makes sense and the job would keep him reined in, romantics looking for a movement to be part of and leader to scream for, plus various types who more often than not end up voting third party for whatever reasons people do that.

Sure, Warren will get a fair number of those remaining after those who promise to walk do, at least initially, but with all these candidates it seems reasonable there'll be a fair amount of scatter also.

I'd say former Sanders supporter Marianne Williamson is made to order for some. Her version of Sanders' positions may sound a little too sensible for some maybe, but with her feel-good spirituality she strikes me as a natural "third-party" choice conveniently already available during the primaries. She's as charming and charismatic a speaker as Sarah Palin and several times smarter, so I'm kind of expecting after the first debate ecstatic claims that she must be our next president.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:33 AM

2. i think most Biden supporters are ok if Warren ends up nominee

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JI7 (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:35 AM

3. This Biden supporter likes Warren too!

 

nt
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JI7 (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:37 AM

4. I think you're right, but then again...

 

I like *just about* every top and second tier candidate in the race.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to JI7 (Reply #2)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 01:44 PM

19. Agreed-I would be glad to support Warren

 

I still believe that is sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:38 AM

5. Nationally, RCP averages are Biden 33.6, Sanders 17.0, Warren 7.8 -

 

Biden 33.6 vs. Sanders/Warren 24.8

Plus, in each individual poll Biden's number is higher than both BS and Warren combined.

Early states (most recent poll):

Iowa: Biden 24, BS/Warren 30
New Hampshire: Biden 36, BS/Warren 27
Nevada: Biden 26, BS/Warren 33 (back in March before Biden announced)
South Carolina: Biden 41.5, BS/Warren 24.5

Except for in Iowa, Biden is ahead of both of them combined, and in Iowa would only finish second if EVERY Sanders supporter goes to Warren.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #5)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:45 AM

7. What is today's date? lol

 

It's the trends that will tell the tale.

Has Biden hit his ceiling?

Will Warren continue to move up?

Will Sanders motivate more people to vote?

Time will tell.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Cory Booker

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Response to uawchild (Reply #7)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:48 AM

11. Dreamy thinking

 

technically called "hypnagogic cognition."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #11)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:26 PM

24. yeah, it is dreaming to think that things stay the same, eh?

 

Time will tell.

Cheers!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Cory Booker

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:40 AM

6. "Elizabeth Warren will walk away with the Democratic nomination"

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:45 AM

8. I think most Bernie supporters

 

would be happy if Warren is the nominee.

If Bernie were to throw his support to Warren she would be a shoo in. She moved to the top of my list just because she is taking on Trump.

I voted for Biden in the 2008 primary, I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, maybe it's time for someone else like Warren?

I hate polls, I don't believe in them, they are used as tools to sway the narrative. Biden is a good Joe but IMO he carries a lot of baggage with him. I'm for whoever wins, my record isn't very good in picking winners, I even voted for McGovern.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to watoos (Reply #8)


Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:45 AM

9. I think there is another reason for this

 

I am reluctantly behind Biden because I see him as the only thing standing between us and a disastrous Sanders nomination. In a fractured, overcrowded field, Sanders is polling high enough to win if Biden were not there.

Without Sanders, I would probably move away from Biden because I prefer a second group of candidates that includes Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to genxlib (Reply #9)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:50 AM

12. I like your reasoning.

 

I have always thought Biden decided not to run last time because he would have taken votes from Hillary giving Sanders the nomination.
Thinking Hillary would win,but Sanders would lose to Trump,Joe stayed out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mainstreetonce (Reply #12)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:59 AM

15. I think Biden would have won.

 

It is pretty clear that a lot of Bernie's 2016 support were people that just didn't want to vote for Hillary. Bernie would probably have been in the 20% +/- range last primary if it was a 3 person race like he is this time around.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:47 AM

10. The Southern states will go overwhelmingly to Biden

 

That will seal the deal.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #10)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 01:45 PM

20. That is what I think will happen

 

Super Tuesday will decide this race
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #10)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:06 PM

22. They sure as hell won't go for Bernie.

 

No way.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 10:53 AM

14. First of all Bernie is not dropping out. Second, that hypothetical ignores every other candidate

 

Last edited Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

running, and not only minimizes them, it assumes that those supporters will flock to Warren

No one can assume that

It is a long way off, and a lot can happen, and Super Tuesday has a lot of states, where so far some of those critical states do not show Senator Warren fairing that well

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to still_one (Reply #14)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:27 PM

25. Exactly, still_one.. False Hypothetical

 

that will never happen.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #25)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:30 PM

27. That is the bottom left me.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 11:05 AM

16. not so sure....

 

...i still feel bidens by far the best candidate and im not sure that liz could stand up to trump during a debate. Bidens as much of a bulldog as trump and thats who we need to go toe to toe with him. trumps scared of joe..not so much scared of liz. She would make a GREAT veep i think!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 12:28 PM

17. You can support that premise with actual numbers, yes?

 

"most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math."

You can support that premise with objective numbers and analysis, yes? Or is this one of those "I know art when I see it"- type posts that relies wholly on the subjective, and refuses to support its own weight?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 01:34 PM

18. Absolutely agree with your analysis

 

I would add that if Warren does continue to rise to the point where she and Biden lead with others far behind, she will be seen as a very viable woman. She also seems more dynamic than Biden. The debates will be the first time they are seen side by side (at least after the number of candidates falls do they are on the same stage.)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:24 PM

23. JHC.. do you have a Wrong Number as

 

far as I'm concerned.

But, like was said up thread.. that ain't Never gonna happen.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #23)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 05:21 PM

29. "that ain't Never gonna happen"

 

They also said Trump ain't never gonna happen, and it did, Cha.

I don't think Bernie is gonna stay in it this time around like he did in 2016. In 2016, Bernie only had Hillary for serious competition. This time he has competition coming out of his ears. Not just Biden, but lots of other excellent choices to contend with as well. I think Biden will do everything in his power to encourage Bernie to stay in the race because without Bernie in it, I think Biden could be finished. Even if Bernie stays in till the end, Big Joe will still most likely drop drastically in the polls once the debates begin.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:29 PM

26. um, no.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:51 PM

28. Now reading this

 

Gave me a ........well my grandma said if you can't say something nice ...shut up so........
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to mtnsnake (Original post)

Mon Jun 10, 2019, 05:55 PM

30. If he gets any delegates in the first few states...

 

He won’t even consider dropping out. He is power hungry and views any delegates gained as power. He owes his millions to Warren. Sanders would have been virtually unheard of and wouldn’t have made millions had Warren run last time around. If he was more good natured he wouldn’t even have considered running this time. Sad to see his futile attempt hurting Warren.

He isn’t going to drop out no matter how many wish it. If wishes worked he never would have ran.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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