Biden supporters should hope that Bernie Sanders never drops out of this race

[mtnsnake]

because if Sanders eventually drops out, there's a good chance that Elizabeth Warren will walk away with the Democratic nomination when most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math.

Even if Bernie doesn't drop out, Biden might do so poorly in the debates that Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Beto, and a few others will likely catch him in the polls, regardless. Warren and Buttigieg are gaining momentum while Biden's early momentum is already slipping, but if Bernie drops out of the race, I think Biden's presidential hopes will quickly be dashed for the 3rd straight time.

[DrToast]

1. Nope...Biden beats everyone head to head.

Former vice president Joe Biden’s status as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 is highlighted in a new poll, which suggests he is not only the current favorite in the crowded field of candidates, but that he would remain the favorite even if he were running against a single Democratic opponent.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/25/18639755/joe-biden-new-poll-beat-democratic-candidate-2020-one-on-one-race

[Hortensis]

21. Yes. This is tested various ways. The OP ignores also

that Sanders has both a LW sorta-socialist faction (because he is) and a populist faction that includes a lot of people who lean socially conservative; his dissenting class-warfare revolution and hostility toward Democrats are what unite them. Then there's the usual goulash of regular Democrats who think he makes sense and the job would keep him reined in, romantics looking for a movement to be part of and leader to scream for, plus various types who more often than not end up voting third party for whatever reasons people do that.

Sure, Warren will get a fair number of those remaining after those who promise to walk do, at least initially, but with all these candidates it seems reasonable there'll be a fair amount of scatter also.

I'd say former Sanders supporter Marianne Williamson is made to order for some. Her version of Sanders' positions may sound a little too sensible for some maybe, but with her feel-good spirituality she strikes me as a natural "third-party" choice conveniently already available during the primaries. She's as charming and charismatic a speaker as Sarah Palin and several times smarter, so I'm kind of expecting after the first debate ecstatic claims that she must be our next president.

[JI7]

2. i think most Biden supporters are ok if Warren ends up nominee

[ananda]

3. This Biden supporter likes Warren too!

nt

[wyldwolf]

4. I think you're right, but then again...

I like *just about* every top and second tier candidate in the race.

[Gothmog]

19. Agreed-I would be glad to support Warren

I still believe that is sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states

[George II]

5. Nationally, RCP averages are Biden 33.6, Sanders 17.0, Warren 7.8 -

Biden 33.6 vs. Sanders/Warren 24.8

Plus, in each individual poll Biden's number is higher than both BS and Warren combined.

Early states (most recent poll):

Iowa: Biden 24, BS/Warren 30
New Hampshire: Biden 36, BS/Warren 27
Nevada: Biden 26, BS/Warren 33 (back in March before Biden announced)
South Carolina: Biden 41.5, BS/Warren 24.5

Except for in Iowa, Biden is ahead of both of them combined, and in Iowa would only finish second if EVERY Sanders supporter goes to Warren.

[uawchild]

7. What is today's date? lol

It's the trends that will tell the tale.

Has Biden hit his ceiling?

Will Warren continue to move up?

Will Sanders motivate more people to vote?

Time will tell.

[LibFarmer]

11. Dreamy thinking

technically called "hypnagogic cognition."

[uawchild]

24. yeah, it is dreaming to think that things stay the same, eh?

Time will tell.

Cheers!

[left-of-center2012]

6. "Elizabeth Warren will walk away with the Democratic nomination"

[watoos]

8. I think most Bernie supporters

would be happy if Warren is the nominee.

If Bernie were to throw his support to Warren she would be a shoo in. She moved to the top of my list just because she is taking on Trump.

I voted for Biden in the 2008 primary, I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, maybe it's time for someone else like Warren?

I hate polls, I don't believe in them, they are used as tools to sway the narrative. Biden is a good Joe but IMO he carries a lot of baggage with him. I'm for whoever wins, my record isn't very good in picking winners, I even voted for McGovern.

[genxlib]

9. I think there is another reason for this

I am reluctantly behind Biden because I see him as the only thing standing between us and a disastrous Sanders nomination. In a fractured, overcrowded field, Sanders is polling high enough to win if Biden were not there.

Without Sanders, I would probably move away from Biden because I prefer a second group of candidates that includes Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker.

[mainstreetonce]

12. I like your reasoning.

I have always thought Biden decided not to run last time because he would have taken votes from Hillary giving Sanders the nomination.
Thinking Hillary would win,but Sanders would lose to Trump,Joe stayed out.

[Ace Rothstein]

15. I think Biden would have won.

It is pretty clear that a lot of Bernie's 2016 support were people that just didn't want to vote for Hillary. Bernie would probably have been in the 20% +/- range last primary if it was a 3 person race like he is this time around.

[LibFarmer]

10. The Southern states will go overwhelmingly to Biden

That will seal the deal.

[Gothmog]

20. That is what I think will happen

Super Tuesday will decide this race

[cwydro]

22. They sure as hell won't go for Bernie.

No way.

[still_one]

14. First of all Bernie is not dropping out. Second, that hypothetical ignores every other candidate

Last edited Mon Jun 10, 2019, 04:29 PM - Edit history (1)

running, and not only minimizes them, it assumes that those supporters will flock to Warren

No one can assume that

It is a long way off, and a lot can happen, and Super Tuesday has a lot of states, where so far some of those critical states do not show Senator Warren fairing that well

[Cha]

25. Exactly, still_one.. False Hypothetical

that will never happen.

[still_one]

27. That is the bottom left me.

[samnsara]

16. not so sure....

...i still feel bidens by far the best candidate and im not sure that liz could stand up to trump during a debate. Bidens as much of a bulldog as trump and thats who we need to go toe to toe with him. trumps scared of joe..not so much scared of liz. She would make a GREAT veep i think!

[LanternWaste]

17. You can support that premise with actual numbers, yes?

"most of Bernie's supporters go flocking over to her instead of to Biden. Do the math."

You can support that premise with objective numbers and analysis, yes? Or is this one of those "I know art when I see it"- type posts that relies wholly on the subjective, and refuses to support its own weight?

[karynnj]

18. Absolutely agree with your analysis

I would add that if Warren does continue to rise to the point where she and Biden lead with others far behind, she will be seen as a very viable woman. She also seems more dynamic than Biden. The debates will be the first time they are seen side by side (at least after the number of candidates falls do they are on the same stage.)

[Cha]

23. JHC.. do you have a Wrong Number as

far as I'm concerned.

But, like was said up thread.. that ain't Never gonna happen.

[mtnsnake]

29. "that ain't Never gonna happen"

They also said Trump ain't never gonna happen, and it did, Cha.

I don't think Bernie is gonna stay in it this time around like he did in 2016. In 2016, Bernie only had Hillary for serious competition. This time he has competition coming out of his ears. Not just Biden, but lots of other excellent choices to contend with as well. I think Biden will do everything in his power to encourage Bernie to stay in the race because without Bernie in it, I think Biden could be finished. Even if Bernie stays in till the end, Big Joe will still most likely drop drastically in the polls once the debates begin.

[EveHammond13]

26. um, no.

[Butterflylady]

28. Now reading this

Gave me a ........well my grandma said if you can't say something nice ...shut up so........

[SouthernProgressive]

30. If he gets any delegates in the first few states...

He won’t even consider dropping out. He is power hungry and views any delegates gained as power. He owes his millions to Warren. Sanders would have been virtually unheard of and wouldn’t have made millions had Warren run last time around. If he was more good natured he wouldn’t even have considered running this time. Sad to see his futile attempt hurting Warren.

He isn’t going to drop out no matter how many wish it. If wishes worked he never would have ran.