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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 01:41 AM

 

The Morning Consult Poll... The UAWCHILD Analysis!

Last edited Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:32 AM - Edit history (1)

I know you all have been waiting for this, so here's probably the most insightful analysis of this weeks Morning Consult Poll results you will find on the web, wait, did I just call the internet "the web"?

Good lord, that makes me sound as old as our leading candidates... Never mind, here is the analysis:

The Biden bounce is over, but he's still at 37%.
For the third week in a row he's lost 1%. How low will he go?
When will he start to gain ground again?


Warren's rise seems unstoppable.
She gained again and is at 11% now and is the only person with a consistent trend upwards in the entire poll.
She's creeping up slowly to Join Biden and Sanders in the 15% cutoff for delegates club.
Will she pass Bernie at 19% and head even further up?

Bernie held steady at 19% while Biden lost ground this week.
Many many people will claim pointing this out makes me some sort of stealth Sanders supporter.
Will Bernie close ground or is ~20% his ceiling this year?

The Take-Away:

If these trends hold, I will be able to claim I am some sort of political genius when Biden, Warren and Sanders take it to The Brokered Convention 2020!

Yeah, that's right, I am calling it early! No candidate is going to get a majority on the first ballot this year. The big three and probably Harris with all her California Delegates will be starring at a brokered convention in 2020.

Wooo! Yeah, baby.

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Morning Consult Poll... The UAWCHILD Analysis! (Original post)
uawchild Jun 2019 OP
PatrickforO Jun 2019 #1
mr_liberal Jun 2019 #2
cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #4
cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #3
Cha Jun 2019 #5
emmaverybo Jun 2019 #6
Cha Jun 2019 #7
Gothmog Jun 2019 #10
still_one Jun 2019 #16
Cha Jun 2019 #17
emmaverybo Jun 2019 #8
emmaverybo Jun 2019 #9
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #13
brooklynite Jun 2019 #11
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #14
uawchild Jun 2019 #12
LibFarmer Jun 2019 #15
BannonsLiver Jun 2019 #18
BannonsLiver Jun 2019 #19

Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 01:55 AM

1. I like Buttigieg, but I also like Warren an awful lot.

 

She'd be a wonderful president.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 02:00 AM

2. Warren and Harris would drop out and endorse Biden

 

Bernie will drop out too, I don't think he really wants to be the nominee.

If Biden flops and tanks then I don't know what will happen. Then a brokered convention is possible, or someone like Booker or Beto could be the nominee.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to mr_liberal (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 02:13 AM

4. Warren might...

 

endorse Biden. But I'm not sure her supporters will all go to Biden. I think it will depend on when that would happen. If it happens earlier, they probably won't. If it happens later and Biden is still in the lead they probably will.

People who are still Bernie supporters probably won't.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 02:06 AM

3. Anything could happen..

 

I think it's way too early. But Elizabeth Warren was who all the Progessives want to run in 2016 but she sat it out and Bernie was the Progressive candidate instead. Bernie and Elizabeth together are close to Biden and if one of them drop out of lose support, it will more likely to go to the other and not Biden. Also, Biden has yet to endure much media scrutiny. And there haven't even been any debates yet, and I've heard Biden refered to as a gaffe machine so the debates might do him in. He's basking in the glow of Obama right now but will it last?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 02:50 AM

5. No.. Biden is Not "basking

 

in the glow of President Obama". That comes up every now and then by those who don't know or care to know Biden's experience and qualifications.

Biden was a working Vice President with invaluable experience in Foreign Relations.

Biden was a long-time member and former chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden

Biden is a great political asset

Since he first stood in the massive shadow of Barack Obama four years ago, Joe Biden has emerged to be a full partner and a great political asset for the president.

The unequal nature of their relationship at first was a function of Obama’s unique standing as a candidate, but as he has fallen to earth, Biden’s star has risen. He is becoming an excellent surrogate for the president, taking on some of the essential work of defending the administration and sticking in the shiv when necessary. Biden does the latter with real skill, most of the time. His attack this weekend on Mitt Romney and Republicans as being “a little out of touch” was masterful.

Biden, whose campaign I worked for in the 1980’s, is a remarkable political figure. His personal story is masterfully chronicled in the great Richard Ben Cramer book, “What It Takes.” Biden was elected to the Senate in 1972 at the age of 29, headed the Judiciary and Foreign Relations committees and ran for president twice.

But what animates him politically is his visceral connection to a middle-class, often ethnic population who, as the cliche goes, work hard and play by the rules. He comes from Scranton, Pa., and from an America where people sweep their stoops, know their neighbors, often serve their country, love their kids, but aren’t afraid to smack them. It is an America where the dream is still college, maybe a professional job, Sundays down on the shore and enough in the bank to retire. It is an America that is struggling, disappearing really, in many places in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New York and Michigan.

It is also a voting population that started abandoning the Democratic Party in 1980 and has rarely come back. This shrinking group is still a crucial swing vote, and while they may not warm to the cerebral Obama or the mega-millionaire elitist Romney, they might just like Joey Biden.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-insiders/post/biden-is-a-great-political-asset/2012/04/01/gIQAZlWYpS_blog.html

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1002509667



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 03:39 AM

6. We need his foreign relations and policy expertise more than ever. Nice job on Biden not basking.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #6)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 03:52 AM

7. Really, emmaverybo.. "Nice job on Biden not basking"!

 



Yes, his experience in Foreign policy in the Senate, and in Obama's White House would be priceless.

I like that article from 2012 on Biden being "a great political asset.. ". I found it by accident, and thought.. "hey, that's what many of us are thinking about Joe Biden right now in 2019!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 08:26 AM

10. I prefer Biden's number in this poll over the other candidates

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Cha (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:41 AM

16. Thanks Cha. Some of the criticisms against Joe are so lame, they indicate to me grasphing at straws

 

for anything.

Those who argue that he is only where he is today because he was President Obama's VP ignores Biden's entire career, and is insulting.

Excellent post


Thanks


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #16)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 05:45 PM

17. Mahalo, still_one!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 03:58 AM

8. Biden is an adept debater. I don't recall Biden making any major gaffes in debates. nt

 



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 04:05 AM

9. Morning consult just did a poll. Sanders supporters second choice would be Biden. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:35 AM

13. Biden was instrumental in negotiating the Iran deal and the Paris accords. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 08:35 AM

11. I think some people WANT a contested convention...

 

I'll call it here, there won't be one. The third place person will throw their support to someone else before the Convention starts.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #11)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:36 AM

14. So far, only the OP wants it

 

others are more realistic.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:33 AM

12. Added the link to Morning Consult

 

Check out the interactive graphical tracking chart for yourself!

Cheers!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 10:38 AM

15. If you studied "margin of error"

 

you'll know that Biden is not dropping and Bernie is not rising.

For someone to say "Biden is dropping", he will have to drop to 32% or below between two consecutive polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LibFarmer (Reply #15)


Response to uawchild (Original post)

Tue Jun 11, 2019, 06:05 PM

19. Bookmarking.

 

No do overs or qualifiers down the road.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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