Biden's campaign is showing some deep cracks in Iowa

[pnwmom]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/12/bidens-campaign-is-showing-some-deep-cracks-iowa/?utm_term=.df754d36c972

Joe Biden attracted a lot of attention Tuesday after exchanging rhetorical fire with President Trump while in Iowa. But a far bigger news story was that Biden was in Iowa in the first place. That’s because his lead in Iowa polls is much smaller than his national margin, suggesting the Democratic front-runner is far from an inevitable nominee.

The Iowa caucuses are historically much more important to Democratic candidates than to Republicans. Only one of the state’s past four GOP caucus winners have gone on to win the nomination, as Iowa’s Republican electorate is much more conservative and evangelical Christian than the nation as a whole. But on the Democratic side, the Iowa winner has gone on to capture the nomination in each of the past four contested races.

That makes Biden’s slim lead more notable than his wide national lead. Candidates have been in and out of Iowa all year long. One, Marianne Williamson, has even moved there. Iowa Democratic voters have seen and heard much more from the contenders than almost any other state, and thus are much less likely to base their preferences largely on name identification. For Biden, that hasn’t been a good thing.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Biden leads by five points in Iowa compared to 16 points nationally. This is not because of a lack of name ID, as Biden is as well known and nearly as well liked among Iowa Democrats as he is nationally. It’s just that more Iowa Democrats who do like Biden are picking someone else.

SNIP

[saidsimplesimon]

1. It's an editorial opinion

I'm saving my clicks.

[pnwmom]

2. I just added the 4th paragraph, saying he had a 5% lead there, compared to 16% nationally.

[DownriverDem]

15. Please focus

Who can win the Electoral College and beat trump? That's all that matters. It's going to take quite a while to undo the damage trump has caused. A lot of the damage we don't even know about. I want a candidate that knows how it goes and can get to work on day one. It's not who I like or who you like. It's who can win and get this country back on track.

[pnwmom]

20. Several of the Democrats could beat Trump and know how the system works. We'll have a better idea

who will be strongest once we've had some debates.

At this point in 2007, Biden was a frontrunner and Obama had about 1%. We were in the depths of the worst recession since the Great Depression, and we needed a President who could get to work on day one.

Biden dropped out after placing 5th in Iowa, and Obama went on to become the President who pulled us out of the disaster left by Bush.

So I think it's way too early to be making predictions.

[msongs]

3. the difference? 24 candidates to choose from, not 2 or 3 nt

[jberryhill]

4. Just a reminder, the Iowa caucuses are in February

Anyone remember June of 2007, and what was going on in Iowa at that time?

It’s just that more Iowa Democrats who do like Biden are picking someone else

And they're all going to stay frozen in that position for the next, oh, seven months. Lol.

[pnwmom]

6. He's lucky he has that time because he still has a lot of work to do there.

He also needs to play catch-up in building the ground game that Iowa experts say you need to win. Reports this week claim Biden is only now hiring the staff needed to identify potential supporters and turn them out to vote, historically a crucial part of winning a caucus state. He did not hire his first Iowa staffers until mid-May, months behind his competitors. There might still be enough time to get the nearly 1,800 volunteer precinct captains he needs for caucus night, but with 23 candidates, the supply of potential volunteers is limited.

[jberryhill]

10. Yeah, he might go for Tom Harkin's 76.55% Iowa Caucus win in 1992

I really do miss President Harkin.

[DownriverDem]

16. I really

just want to beat trump. I don't want to take a chance on a candidate that I fear the voters will reject.

[jberryhill]

21. Ah, a veteran of the Hillary 2008 campaign

[marylandblue]

24. The problem is you won't know who that it is until election day.

The candidate who makes you least anxious is not necessarily the most likely to win.

[saidsimplesimon]

8. I am an optimist.

Every day is an opportunity to settle old scores and pave a path to better days.

[emmaverybo]

5. Deep cracks? I am not seeing deep cracks based on the editorial's information. Just that Iowa,

where currently he leads, will be a challenge for his campaign, mainly because he started building later there. But deep cracks in the campaign? The list of editorials following this one make it clear
that WaPo favors Biden-negative headlines.

[DownriverDem]

18. What a waste

We don't have time for this kind of crap and tit for tat games. We need to focus. I personally think there are too many candidates. I hope this doesn't drag on and become a dog and pony show.

[emmaverybo]

26. I sure agree. Feel some should self-eliminate and now. nt

[Pathwalker]

7. The "Hillarying" of Biden will continue adnauseum.

The press doesn't want him, the GOP doesn't want him, so we must just all do what they want. Unless, like me, you're just plain contrary. Screw 'em.

[redstatebluegirl]

14. And like me, I hated what they did to Secretary Clinton.

[DownriverDem]

19. For sure

The attacks here do no good for our side either.

[cwydro]

25. They seem to be coming from the same few posters.

Interesting.

[emmaverybo]

29. Noticed that. And persistent at it. nt

[cwydro]

30. Perhaps they're unaware there's a "Biden Pile-On" thread!

They could just chirp away on that one lol!

[emmaverybo]

27. Amen.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. This opinion is pretty flawed.

Iowa has always been more centralized, and clustered, in its polling compared to the national average. This doesn't mean squat - since, you know, its role as the first official primary/caucus of the election means they have way more interaction with the candidates than national voters ... and that includes the lower-level candidates who might not be registering at the national level yet.

Hillary under-performed her national average by a wide-margin in 2016. Nationally, she led Bernie by an average of 51.6-37.2 nationally (RCP) - yet, the RCP average of Iowa the day of the Caucus had her at only a 4.0+ margin over Bernie. She'd win by less than a percentage point.

In 2008, Obama led by an average margin of +1.6% in the polls the day of the Iowa Caucus (won by +7.8) and his national standing on Jan. 3rd, 2008 (the day of the caucus) put him 20 points behind Hillary. That turned out to be a swing of nearly 30 points in Obama's favor from the national vote to the Iowa Caucus.

In 2004, going by a Time/CNN Poll conducted three days before the Iowa Caucus, Howard Dean led nationally with 22% of the vote - and John Kerry was second at 10. Kerry would go on to win the Iowa Caucus - while Dean placed a paltry third at 18%.

The take away on all this: Of course the polls will be tighter in Iowa - they've been tighter in each of the last three primaries for the party. The difference? In 2008 and 2004, the candidate who led nationally (Clinton, Dean) weren't winning in Iowa, or didn't win in Iowa. Biden currently is.

[Peacetrain]

11. VP Biden announced 7 weeks ago today.. soooo

hmmmm ... deep cracks in 7 weeks.. not seeing it, and I am on the ground in Iowa.. I live here.. now granted I am not everywhere Iowa.. but don't think I will panic just yet..but thanks for the warning.. will watch my step and keep my eyes out for those cracks in Iowa..

[MineralMan]

12. Still months to go before the caucuses, aren't there?

I wouldn't put too much weight on these early polls.

[George II]

13. RealClear's average is based on four polls, only one of which came after Biden's announcement....

...and one of which is considered among the worst, Gravis. The Des Moines Register is considered one of the most accurate in Iowa.

DM Register/CNN, 6/2 - 6/5 Biden +8 (no rating)
Gravis, 4/17 - 4/18 Biden/Sanders tied (C+ rating)
Monmouth, 4/4 - 4/9 Biden +11 (A+ rating)
Emerson, 3/21 - 3/24 Biden +1 (B+ rating)

Looking at the progression of average lead, Biden's lead has been 1 after the first poll, 6 after the first two polls, 4 after the first three polls, and 5 after all four polls. That's pretty consistent.

I'd be curious to see the next round of polls now that Biden has announced and all have had recent appearances in Iowa.

[LibFarmer]

22. Some people don't believe in math nt

[SidDithers]

17. Henry Olsen is a conservative...

His National Review articles here:

https://www.nationalreview.com/author/henry-olsen/

Sid

[progressoid]

23. Frankly, I've not really seen much of a campaign from Biden in Iowa at all.

[Kurt V.]

28. K&R

[underpants]

31. Any points Iowa are ok. Yes it helps with coverage and, maybe, momentum but spend money in Primaries

That's my take.

Caucuses are very susceptible to who runs them. Literally your team is spread thin. It can be a god testing ground for the staff but you are going to exert a tremendous amount of energy covering all that person to person turf.

Being the front runner, he is, and having debates prior to Iowa helps him a lot. Go to few county fairs. Avoid corn dog pics. Hit the cities and have advance teams at the third/fourth primary ahead of you.

[still_one]

32. let's go Joe !

[JI7]

33. Biden could lose Iowa. mostly becsuse he doesn't like to campaign

so it will be an opening for others to make their case and try to win.

[Blue_true]

34. I like Warren because she is inexhaustible as a campaigner.

We can't have a 2020 nominee who spends large amounts of time off the campaign trail. Trump loves adoring crowds, he will likely be doing lots of stops before the droolers that come to watch him. We need a campaigner that makes him look tired, so far Warren is the only one showing that instinct.

[VarryOn]

35. I know IA is first and winning can set a candidate up going into NH...

but it seems to require an inaordinate amount of attention from candidates.

Every election, all we hear on the front end of election seaon is about IA .IA this..IA that...who's been there...who hasnt. And then there seems to be 10 or 15 people who run the whole damn show who can deem a candiate in trouble with even the smallest of perceived slight. It's so annoying.

Rant over.