The winners -- and losers -- of the Democratic debate draw

[left-of-center2012]

Despite the Democratic Party's efforts to avoid a 'kiddie table,' the first night lineup comes close.
Here’s who won and who lost in the first debate draw of the Democratic primary:

Harris and Buttigieg prosper
Most candidates, if not all, had hoped to draw a lectern alongside Biden or Sanders, eager to draft off the early front-runners’ stature — and to emphasize their own contrasts with them.
Harris and Buttigieg will get them both.

Warren’s consolation prize
Warren was left out of the debate featuring most of the other top-polling candidates — an unlucky draw, according to many Democratic strategists. But NBC News’ decision to run her debate on the first night, when viewership is expected to be high no matter who is participating, is a consolation prize for the surging Massachusetts senator.
The first night’s stage will include former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, as well as Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar. For Warren and any of those candidates, not having to contend with Biden and Sanders could give them more room to stand out.

Counter-programming
Part of that demand will be satisfied by Trump, who is widely expected to tweet about the debates as they unfold.

Missing out
Among the candidates who will not appear on stage with Biden or Sanders are at least two who had appeared poised to engage directly with them.
O’Rourke earlier this week had sharply rebuked Biden, saying his nomination would mark a return to the past that the country cannot afford.
Former Rep. John Delaney, meanwhile, told MSNBC that he had hoped to highlight his “big contrast” with Sanders on health care.

DNC communications director Xochitl Hinojosa:
“I think both nights will get amazing viewership,”. “I think we’re already starting to hear, people are extremely excited about these candidates. I think they’re both very strong lineups. I think that you will also hear candidates respond to each other on various nights.”

Much more at:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/14/2020-democratic-debate-winners-losers-1365629

[Fresh_Start]

1. I was disappointed that Liz got day 1 instead of the with the big boys

but then I realized we can use that.
Now whenever someone talks up Bernie we can say he copied what Liz said a day earlier

[SkatmanRoth]

2. Warren can carry the progressive message in the second string debate

Bernie Sanders will have no problem advancing the progressive left in the major debate.

[Celerity]

3. Bernie is going to be trying to plant a verbal/philosophical dagger/zinger in Biden, Pete, & Harris'

collective backs. He is in free-fall in the polls and will act like a cornered animal. Fortunately for our party and the nation, he will fail. IF he really cared about his issues, he will drop out after being hammered on (or hopefully before) Super Tuesday and urge all his supporters to support Warren.

Bernie has many good ideas, he is just a poor messenger and an even worse self-labeller (his tosh calling himself a democratic socialist.)

[SkatmanRoth]

4. The competition's advice to Bernie is to drop out

Bernie's dropping out would sure solve a number of otherwise unsolvable for the lower tiered candidates.

[Celerity]

5. no, Bernie's dropping out almost guarantees we (no matter who is the nominee) beat Rump

He himself has zero chance to win, but he does have a tremendous amount of potential wrecker power. The longer he stays in the more divisive and bitter he and his legions will become, and his plazzy, fake DemSoc pose and self mis-labelling tars and feathers the rest of our candidates with a really shitty fake socialist brush that empowers Rethugs to falsely blast any and all as 'socialist thus ergo.....commie!!', in millions of dull brains.

The true, non-DU, Berner sites and channels are now busy doing to their acolytes, Bro's/Bro'ettes, followers, etc exactly what they accused the 'establishment' (cough cough) Democrats doing in 2016.

They are lying, gaslighting, wilfully misrepresenting, and claiming that ONLY Bernie is pure and good. It is sickening to see. We (my wife and I) got into a huge argument here (we are in the EU for the summer) with a group of American expats, some of whom I went to LSE with. I was shocked at how cult-like and utterly uncritically thinking they had become in just the last 3 years. They have become caricatures of themselves, and are more like the phantom enemy they imagined back then they could surely bear, IF they took a long hard look into that old mirror of Socrates......

[marylandblue]

8. Well, I hope that those hardcore Sanderites are very few.

In particular I think with more competition he will not be as appealing to reasonable people who wanted change in 2016.

[Celerity]

12. if a large chunk of his supporters go batshit cray, they can really fuck up a close election

His 2020 supporters (non DU) are a far different, far more radical, far less Democratic Party voting/friendly lot than his 2016 cohort.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/#448e5b557ddd

No. 1: Only 51% of current Bernie supporters actually voted in the 2016 General Election for the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton – 7% voted for Trump, 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 19% did not vote.

No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.

No. 3: 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.

No. 4: Only 42% of those who voted for Bernie in the 2016 Primary selected him as their top choice in the 2020 Primary.

my thoughts:

The 2020 underlying fundamentals buttressing the Sanders supporters demographics truly worry me. It is a petrol can looking for a swan vesta.

So many structurally dissimilar metrics to 2016 in a negative way. A 40 to 45% (or higher) walk-away ratio, with a 25% or so possible straight to Trump vote quotient contained within that overall yield is not at all a good thing.

If the current statistical trend-lines hold true, that extrapolates out to a direct defection rate (even with far fewer overall votes captured) of around 2 to 3 million votes straight to Trump, and another 1 million to 2 million to a 3rd party(s).

That is a massive increase over the 2016 numbers. That would be catastrophic. He simply must cement those new supporters to stay in-tent even if he fails to land the nomination. The onus is ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT on HIM and him alone to do that.

The more hostile a stance towards our overall Democratic Party apparatus he himself takes, the more he inculcates a defector mentality into the minds and ultimately the actionable intent of his baseline support to do just that, walk away.

It will become a self re-enforcing negative feedback loop that culminates in a viscous circle that truly raises the re-election chances of the monster orange bloat to a maddening degree.

[marylandblue]

14. I see what you are saying, but I don't think 2020 plays out the same as 2016.

It's predicted to be the highest turnout in 100 years. That's usually a good sign for Democrats. I don't see all those new voters showing up to vote 3rd party. And like 2018, women will be the deciding factor, and they won't be going for Trump.

[Celerity]

16. I feel a little better than when I first visited this subject months ago, as Sanders has partially

collapsed, and has almost zero chance to go into a potentially tense, or even brokered convention with anywhere near enough delegates to be a kingmaker or (far more likely) a phoney victim who storms out.

[SkatmanRoth]

10. And if we eliminate the number two guy, everyone else moves up in rank!

Infallible logic.

[Politicub]

7. He's pretty predictable

He typically gives the same responses about his laundry list of issues. He’ll probably try to put a finer point on the definition of democratic socialism.

[Celerity]

9. it is a massive self-inflicted wound that is spreading in its effects onto all the rest of us

It is poisoning the well and is falsely tarnishing bog standard (in all other advanced nations) social democratic programmes with a phoney 'socialist' patina of failure.

[Politicub]

11. Is it? I don't worry about it or see the same enthusiasm around his campaign.

And I don’t understand why people fret about Bernie. None of us can control him.

The nominee will have to put up with sharper attacks than Bernie and his hired guns can muster.

[Celerity]

13. He and his hired guns are feeding the Rumpian/Rethug shit machine so so much ammo with which our

winning candidates (POTUS, Senate, House, state houses, Govs, ect etc) will be shot with.

[Skittles]

21. absolutely correct

[Blue_true]

18. That is what I am afraid of. If Bernie continues to slide in the polls,

look for scorched earth against anyone that he sees as a threat. He may even try to zing Warren, although she has an excellent chance to set the table in a way that Bernie will fail attacking her.

[marylandblue]

6. I think Warren and O'Rourke are being way underestimated.

Warren is brilliant and engaging. She will have a chance to show off without Biden or Sanders overshadowing her. O'Rourke also looks good on stage. He has a chance to revive his campaign.

[Blue_true]

19. I agree.

That first night lineup seems to have a lot of people in it who won't over talk their opponents. I actually feel that the ones that got hurt were Buttigieg and Harris, two cerebral candidates in night two.

[JI7]

15. there are no winners or losers until after

and overall it won't matter much unless someone really does badly.

[Indygram]

17. This is actually excellent for Warren and Beto

Most of the people in the first debate are not possessed by ego so they are most likely to discuss actual issues that people care about and want to hear about. The only possible disruption could be Inslee trying to turn it into a full on Climate Debate, which if he does I hope all of the rest of them slap him down like a 9 armed octopus on a rampage, lol. Yes, the climate is crucial but he can have a damn townhall. OK, back to the subject at hand...night 2 is going to be all about ego and trying to one up each other and with limited time I think those egos of some are going to turn that debate into a big "I know you are but what am I" fiasco.

Also...Warren and Beto go FIRST, and more people usually tune in to the first night than the second.

[Blue_true]

20. Pretty much the way that I see the situation.

I actually think that Warren drew the ace card. She gets away from the firestorm that Bernie likely will ignite, but she gets a clean shot to contrast herself to every other front runner.

[tishaLA]

22. I honestly believe Sen Warren and Mr O'Rourke are

In a great position, along with Sen Booker, to draw positive attention to themselves by virtue of being out of the second debate. I suspect Sen Warren will make the most of it and, when the dust clears, hers will be among the more memorable performances of the two nights.

I have no idea how the second night will go, though.