Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWill the initial debates thin out the candidate list a little?
I don't know. We'll probably find out in the post-debate polls If the 1% and 2% candidates lose ground, we'll know, I think. If those who currently have them as their favorites begin distributing their preferences to the leading candidates, we'll see the poll results change somewhat.
It's hard to predict, really. It's very early in the primary campaign. However, what happens in those first polls following the two debates might convince some people that it's time to look for a different windmill at which to tilt.
As we move into July, I hope the list gets trimmed down to a more manageable number. As much as I love Amy Klobuchar, it's clear that she's not going to become our party's nominee. Her 2% can go to a different candidate and she can continue being one of Minnesota's two Democratic Senators. She won't mind too much, I'm sure.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,280 posts)The other lesser-known candidates will start to drop out as their contributions fall off, which will probably occur as the front-runners solidify their support. With a few exceptions, these are all good, competent people but that's not a sufficient reason to run for president, so Bennet, Bullock, Swalwell (impressive people, but...), Di Blasio, Hickenlooper, Gravel, Moulton, Ryan and Messam will probably fold by August-ish. Gabbard, Gillibrand, Castro and Inslee might manage a little longer; I'm not sure how long Klobuchar will hold out. Bernie won't go away no matter what happens, but Warren is gradually eating up his support. In the end, unless something unexpected happens, I think it will probably come down to Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, O'Rourke and Buttigieg who are still in it when the primaries start next winter. But, of course, I could be totally wrong.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,811 posts)In September, the second round of debates will double the qualification in terms of polling and donations. Some candidates will not be able to push out of the 1% polling or will drop beneath the new qualifying %; donations will dry up. Which is not a bad thing because the number of candidates at the moment is unmanageable.
On the other hand, this debate--for all its flaws--will give some of these candidates a chance to leap forward. I anticipate the polling numbers will boost a few and demolish others.
We shall see. I'll be watching and listening.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Baclava
(12,047 posts)What kind of candidate would fold up their tables so soon?
When they start running out of money, then yes there will be an exodus, not for the first few months though
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden