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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
Sat Jun 15, 2019, 11:36 AM Jun 2019

Will the initial debates thin out the candidate list a little?

I don't know. We'll probably find out in the post-debate polls If the 1% and 2% candidates lose ground, we'll know, I think. If those who currently have them as their favorites begin distributing their preferences to the leading candidates, we'll see the poll results change somewhat.

It's hard to predict, really. It's very early in the primary campaign. However, what happens in those first polls following the two debates might convince some people that it's time to look for a different windmill at which to tilt.

As we move into July, I hope the list gets trimmed down to a more manageable number. As much as I love Amy Klobuchar, it's clear that she's not going to become our party's nominee. Her 2% can go to a different candidate and she can continue being one of Minnesota's two Democratic Senators. She won't mind too much, I'm sure.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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Will the initial debates thin out the candidate list a little? (Original Post) MineralMan Jun 2019 OP
My guess is yes. By January, we'll be down to 10. Funtatlaguy Jun 2019 #1
I hope the vanity candidates like Yang and Williamson go away soon. The Velveteen Ocelot Jun 2019 #2
I expect this round will begin to cull the number of candidates peggysue2 Jun 2019 #3
I really don't think so, not after a couple speeches Baclava Jun 2019 #4
 

Funtatlaguy

(10,856 posts)
1. My guess is yes. By January, we'll be down to 10.
Sat Jun 15, 2019, 11:46 AM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,280 posts)
2. I hope the vanity candidates like Yang and Williamson go away soon.
Sat Jun 15, 2019, 11:51 AM
Jun 2019

The other lesser-known candidates will start to drop out as their contributions fall off, which will probably occur as the front-runners solidify their support. With a few exceptions, these are all good, competent people but that's not a sufficient reason to run for president, so Bennet, Bullock, Swalwell (impressive people, but...), Di Blasio, Hickenlooper, Gravel, Moulton, Ryan and Messam will probably fold by August-ish. Gabbard, Gillibrand, Castro and Inslee might manage a little longer; I'm not sure how long Klobuchar will hold out. Bernie won't go away no matter what happens, but Warren is gradually eating up his support. In the end, unless something unexpected happens, I think it will probably come down to Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, O'Rourke and Buttigieg who are still in it when the primaries start next winter. But, of course, I could be totally wrong.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
3. I expect this round will begin to cull the number of candidates
Sat Jun 15, 2019, 12:23 PM
Jun 2019

In September, the second round of debates will double the qualification in terms of polling and donations. Some candidates will not be able to push out of the 1% polling or will drop beneath the new qualifying %; donations will dry up. Which is not a bad thing because the number of candidates at the moment is unmanageable.

On the other hand, this debate--for all its flaws--will give some of these candidates a chance to leap forward. I anticipate the polling numbers will boost a few and demolish others.

We shall see. I'll be watching and listening.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
4. I really don't think so, not after a couple speeches
Sat Jun 15, 2019, 12:52 PM
Jun 2019

What kind of candidate would fold up their tables so soon?

When they start running out of money, then yes there will be an exodus, not for the first few months though

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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