NBC/WSJ poll: Enthusiasm for Warren surges while same for Biden, Sanders falls

[Bradshaw3]

A clip about the poll from MSNBC:

https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/enthusiasm-for-elizabeth-warren-surges-in-new-poll-62111813873

Seems Biden and and Sanders have slipped about 6 points when it comes to the enthusiasm factor.

[Skid Rogue]

1. Warren is absolutely amazing! :D

I'm happy to see her do so well. In a perfect world she'd be my candidate.

[honest.abe]

2. Not sure how that translates into actual voter prefercence..

since Biden actually still has the highest enthusiasm numbers.

Meanwhile, Warren’s support among Democratic primary voters has grown in the last three months, according to the NBC/WSJ poll.

A combined 64 percent of them say they’re enthusiastic/comfortable about her (up from 57 percent in March), while a combined 27 percent have reservations or are very uncomfortable (down from 33 percent).

Biden’s numbers among Democratic primary voters are 66 percent enthusiastic/comfortable (down from 73 percent in March), versus 32 percent with reservations or who are very uncomfortable (up from 25 percent in March).

And Sanders’ numbers are 56 percent enthusiastic/comfortable (down from 62 percent in March), versus 41 percent with reservations or who are uncomfortable (up from 36 percent in March).

[Bradshaw3]

3. Biden's numbers have gone down as far as enthusiasm

As far as preferences, it may signal a drop in voting preference in the future. I think that is what happened with the Beto and Pete surges after they announced; people were excited about them. In a recent poll, Beto seems to be getting a second wind while Pete's number is going down.

[honest.abe]

5. Yes, but down from a very high number 73% to 66%.

So even though down he's still higher than Liz who is at 64% so that's my point.

[Bradshaw3]

15. The point here is that she is heading up while he is headed down

And right now it's just two points higher, so within the margin of error.

[marylandblue]

6. Signals a potential trend against Biden. But it's not time for him to worry yet.

[Demsrule86]

7. I believe Biden will be the nominee

[marylandblue]

9. I know, you keep saying that, even when it's not relevant.

Such as here.

[honest.abe]

12. Two data points are not a trend.

His numbers were so high it was inevitable they would come down a bit.

[marylandblue]

13. POTENTIAL trend. And like I said, not time for him to worry yet.

[honest.abe]

17. POTENTIAL trend with two data points??

Hardly a statistic worth mentioning.

[marylandblue]

18. Nonetheless, it was mentioned and you responded, as did I.

[LanternWaste]

27. No, two data points are not a trend.

It takes three points to show a pattern. e.g. 2,4,6 (even numbers); 2,3,5 (prime numbers). You get no information on pattern from just two numbers. From two points you might be able to tell that there is an orientation (say) upwards, but one cannot tell the nature of that movement. Is it linear? Exponential? Oscillating? The third data point gives us a lot of additional information about drift that two points simply cannot give.

[marylandblue]

28. Thanks for the math lesson I don't need.

May I give you a syntax lesson? The word "potential" in this context indicates the speaker's opinion that something COULD happen, but, in fact, has not yet happened. If three points make a trend, then two points do not. But two points COULD be part of a trend that might be established with additional data. Or it could not happen, which is always implied when the word "could" or "potential" is used.

The use of capitals to emphasize the word "potential" in the response above is meant to further emphasize the highly uncertain and subjective nature of this analysis, as does the emphasized word "could" in this post.

The acknowledged lack of support for the opinion is further reinforced by the follow-up sentence which said that Biden shouldn't be worried yet, indicating that the change should not be taken as a sign of a problem for him, in the way an actual trend might.

[VarryOn]

4. I'm waiting until after the debates to make a decision...

But she is definitely moving up for me. I love her thoughtful positions. I dont get the feeling most of the candidates have put as much thought into what they believe.

I also think she's got some good political advisors. Dealing early with the elephant in the room was smart!

[Demsrule86]

8. I don't think she can win the rustbelt...I like her but...we have to win.

[Susan Calvin]

14. Given a chance, I think she can talk them around. nt

[Demsrule86]

26. I think there is too much sexism for any womsn to win...very disturbing pollls

On this. It makes me sad and angry. But we have to win.

[Blue_true]

22. She is a hard worker and will go talk to people in that part

of the country as she will in other parts. If it comes down to her v the baboon (trump), my money is on her. She is certainly smarter by infinity, but she also has a element about her where she quietly roll up her sleeves and work to remove roadblocks - I think that is critical in defeating Trump.

[Demsrule86]

25. Polls show too many who are reluctant to vote for a woman...we can't

take a chance.

[Blue_true]

36. Wow.

You are wrong. If we did not have caustic disruption of our party mechanics and socalled progressive telling people not to vote for the democrat, we would have a female president RIGHT NOW!!!! It is about time people realize that and get their heads screwed on, the stakes are too high not to this time around.

[Demsrule86]

37. Did you see the poll?

[Demsrule86]

38. But we don't. I believe sexism played a role in this.

[zentrum]

21. Basically I feel the

...way you do. But she just recently snuck up on me.

[Blue_true]

23. I love her work ethic and never give up optimism.

"And yet she persisted".

[VarryOn]

24. I really like Senator Klobuchar, too...

and would have no problem voting them in. In fact, I would relish it. And I think I wouldnt be the only one.

Two women running the Executive Branch would make an everslasting and positive impact onnn the country.

In the early days of the campaign, I was big on Kamala Harris. She's disappeared! At this point, I'd put her on SCOTUS.

[MoonRiver]

10. I love Warren! My first choice is still Kamala, but Liz is a close second!

[BlueMTexpat]

30. I've been vacillating for

some time between the two. I too am waiting for debates.

[empedocles]

11. Some people think polls are important, except when they think polls are not important.

[Bradshaw3]

20. Some people are able to put polls in context, or as a snapshot.

Some people aren't. Some people think polls are predictive of what will happen a year away. Some people don't think they are.

[barbtries]

16. yeah!

#Warren2020

[zentrum]

19. Great News. nt

[Fresh_Start]

29. Love Liz,hate the fact that even democratic men are misogynists

and believe women can't do the job

[Bradshaw3]

32. True but think she is changing minds

And will do so in the general.

[marylandblue]

34. That's what I think. She amazingly talented. perhaps enough to overcome misogyny.

Last edited Tue Jun 18, 2019, 02:28 PM - Edit history (1)

People sometimes say they would vote for a woman, but not that particular woman. But sometimes they find some woman so impressive, they vote for her anyway. Think of a liberal Margaret Thatcher. I think Warren is that tough, but in a more subtle way.

Please don't take the Thatcher analogy too far. Just pointing out that a few women do succeed in a man's world.

[Bradshaw3]

35. Good points

People don't like to hear it, but I think there are people who wouldn't vote for HRC but would vote for Warren. I like your liberal Thatcher comparison - strong but compassionate (unlike Thatcher).

[Politicub]

31. Even though the media is paying close attention to Sanders, he isn't gaining

any momentum. This is in contrast to 2016 when more visibility equaled more support.

People don't seem to be flirting with the idea of democratic socialism as much as they were in the past.

This augurs well for Klobuchar, IMHO. Hear me out: While Biden holds the pragmatism crown now, Klobuchar's platform is closest in substance to what Biden is selling. If Biden slips and Klobuchar's message holds, then I see her inching up in the polls.

I firmly believe that Klobuchar is the sleeper candidate this cycle. She is impressive in town halls, and her proposals seem possible to accomplish. What she needs is more visibility, and will get that during the debates.

She's a bit centrist for my taste, but I know I'm to the left of the average voter. I know that about myself, and would support her enthusiastically.

[marylandblue]

33. I don't think people were flirting with democratic socialism so much as

looking for change. Sanders was the change candidate on the Democratic side, so he outperformed expectations. This time he has competition from several other change candidates.

I like Klobuchar. I think she comes across well. Today she put out a long list of policy proposals. Nothing major but ambitious for it's breadth. People may prefer that kind of change to the more wholesale changes proposed by Warren.