'Electability' is the most important, least understood word in the 2020 race

[DonViejo]

Some say it's a code word for discrimination against candidates who are women and people of color. Experts have studied that issue.

June 23, 2019, 6:00 AM EDT / Updated June 23, 2019, 7:04 AM EDT

By Alex Seitz-Wald

WASHINGTON — The most important factor in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is also the most unknowable: Electability.

Unlike primary voters in every other recent presidential election, Democrats are still so rattled by the 2016 election that they keep telling pollsters they'll vote for whichever candidate they think has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, whether or not they like that contender most.

The problem is that no one, whether it's the voters or the professional prognosticators, can predict the future enough to figure out who it will take to beat the president some 500 days from now.

“Electability is in the eye of the beholder," said Patrick Murray, who runs the well-respected Monmouth University poll. "Voters are not very good at predicting electability...It really is ill-informed, but we know that it's not facts —but perception — that drive voter behavior."

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/electability-eye-beholder-what-hell-do-we-actually-know-about-n1020576?cid=public-rss_20190623

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Once the debates start next week, the perception of electability will shift significantly

Things will change dramatically between now and January; even the Third Way folks are signaling a shift in the narrative.

Bye bye, inevitability.

[Wounded Bear]

2. The most "unelectable" candidate in my memory is now squatting in the White House...

Worrying about electability is bullshit IMHO.

Repubs don't waste time on that kind of bullshit. They cheat, they lie, they "win" any way they can.

Most importantly, they stick together, regardless of the quality of their candidate.

[marylandblue]

3. Yeah, electibility is a problem. We can't predict who voters will want in the end.

We only think we can, but all we are doing is guessing about people who we never met and are undecided or are easily swayed by various factors. If they don't know who they will vote for, how would you?

[Politicub]

4. The "Warren Wand" question is eye-opening

She leads the field with the magic wand question. I think the aura of “safe” will shift to a “magic wand” candidate as the primary cycle progresses.

The more people hear from someone like Warren, the more confident they will become in her electability. Or not. It could always go the other way.

And some people will cling to their choice until after the convention and begrudgingly support the nominee but won’t bother with helping to GoTV.

The someone-or-bust people will apply balm to one anothers’ chapped asses and convince themselves not to vote or vote third party, if their candidate doesn’t get the nomination. There won’t be many of them this cycle.

The next few months will be interesting. The needle moving among the candidates may be a good sign: it will mean more people are starting to get engaged with the process.