BTRTN: Biden Go Seek... Harris Goes on the Offensive and Wins Big

[reggieandlee]

Born to Run the Numbers provides its analysis of the two nights of Democratic debates:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-biden-go-seekharris-goes-on.html

Excerpts: "For two hours on Wednesday and another hour on Thursday, the Democratic debates were spirited and energetic, but all seeming to little effect. It appeared that there would be only modest shifts in the hierarchy of the candidates’ standing, as most candidates turned in solid performances and no one committed a train-wreck caliber gaffe. Then... Kamala Harris turned and faced Joe Biden, and the tectonic plates underneath the race shuddered with the force of a 7.0 Richter California quake...
"It took all of five minutes for Harris to upend the Presidential election campaign of 2020. She had not simply taken Biden down. She had presented herself as a powerful leader willing to take on the toughest issues. For a party that is desperately searching for the leader who has the guts, gravitas, the personal power, and the savvy to take down Donald Trump, Harris’ tour de force was mesmerizing. The inevitability of Biden’s nomination seemed to drain in real time...
"Look for gains, too, for Pete Buttigieg, and even for tier three candidate Eric Swalwell. From Wednesday night, Elizabeth Warren was outstanding, and Julian Castro and Bill de Blasio both elevated their standing...
"In fact, Kamala Harris was right about a lot of stuff last night. The Democratic Party is desperate to find someone who is sure to beat Donald Trump. That is the criteria, end of story. Joe Biden's strong support to date has been because most people believe that he is the most likely to beat Trump. That belief system was shaken last night. Harris intuited that the best way to prove that she is the one who can take it to Trump would be to take it to the current front runner...Harris knew that the only way to position herself as the leader was to take on the leader. Round one to the Senator from California."

[stonecutter357]

1. let's go Joe !

[emmaverybo]

2. Indeed! Always makes me smile. NT

[ucrdem]

3. I dunno .. she was my #3 but it seemed over the top and below the belt.

Yes, she'll get lots of press. Will she make it out of the third string? Will Cory? That I'm less certain of.

[Raven123]

4. Below the belt? How?

[reggieandlee]

5. Third string?

Not sure what you mean by third string. I think that Biden and Bernie took strong leads larger because of brand familiarity and residual loyalty. After those two, there may be a second grouping, but that would definitely be comprised of Harris, Buttigieg, and Warren. All three of those candidates did well in the debates. I think the gap between Biden and Bernie and the next three will tighten considerably in the next few weeks.

I really like Cory, and he did well on Wednesday. But he simply did not have a single "moment" -- the kind of transformative moment like Kamala initiated with Biden. Cory may be finding his voice, but the broader narrative is currently taking shape... and he is not in it as of now.

[reggieandlee]

6. Below the belt? I don't thing so.

Can't say that I agree that this shot was below the belt. Biden made a mistake to discuss segregationist Senators in the first place. He exacerbated the error by failing to acknowledge that his statement was at minimum, open to a negative interpretation. Joe Biden should have been keenly aware that this issue was going to come up in the debate. He should have been thoroughly prepped about how to respond. This could have been a great opportunity for him to come back with strength, and actually turn the entire encounter to his advantage.

[tgards79]

7. Biden is Biden

What you love about him, if you do, is that he is authentic and resists scripting. Scripting Biden is insane, it's not him.