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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 05:19 PM

 

Biden's Support Slipped 10 Points After Debates, Poll Shows

https://time.com/5617826/primary-debate-biden-harris-poll-slips-10/

The first Democratic primary debates appear to have cost Vice President Joe Biden some of his supporters – at least for now, one poll suggests.

Polling by Morning Consult and FiveThirtyEight before and after the two debates on Wednesday and Thursday suggests that support for Biden dropped by about 10 points among likely Democratic voters, when asked who they would choose if the election were held tomorrow.

Biden had previously enjoyed a healthy lead over the other Democrats. The polling prior to debates, which was conducted between June 19 and 26, suggested that Biden was supported by about 41.5% of voters. At that point, the polling showed Sen. Elizabeth Warren had the support of 12.6% of voters and Bernie Sanders had 14.4% of support. Biden appears to have slipped in the polls after each debate, his support falling to 35.4% after the first debate and to 31.5% after the second round.

Post-debate analyses suggest that Sen. Kamala Harris’ strong debate performance – coupled with her willingness directly attack Biden, including his civil rights record – posed a challenge for the former Vice President. In one of the most heated moments of the debate, Harris drew attention to Biden’s previous opposition to busing as a tool to promote school integration.

The poll also showed Harris gaining a significant number of supporters. While she had the support of just 7.9% of likely voters before the debate, she had 16.6% of the the support afterwards. Other candidates appeared to experience smaller gains and losses, according to the poll. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ support rose from 14.4% to 17.3% after the second debate; Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s support grew from 12.6% to 14.4%.

snip
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Biden's Support Slipped 10 Points After Debates, Poll Shows (Original post)
Celerity Jun 2019 OP
Mr.Bill Jun 2019 #1
sandensea Jun 2019 #5
sandensea Jun 2019 #2
True Dough Jun 2019 #3
DesertRat Jun 2019 #6
Kind of Blue Jun 2019 #4
frazzled Jun 2019 #7
Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #8
Green Line Jun 2019 #9
Demsrule86 Jun 2019 #10

Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 05:51 PM

1. The ironic thing is that Harrises state, California

 

voted by ballot initiative to ban affirmative action in all state institutions, including our universities over two decades ago.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Mr.Bill (Reply #1)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 06:01 PM

5. And another irony:

 

Many white voters - who were, as a group, the most vocal supporters of Prop 209 - later came to regret it.

Because the biggest (practically the sole) beneficiaries of the repeal, were Asian-American students.

At around 13% of the population at the time, they made up something like 40% of A-grade high schoolers. Affirmative Action, in effect, had long restricted their admittance numbers - an unintended injustice of the policy.

And once Affirmative Action was repealed, their share of college admittance numbers soared. The share of Blacks and Hispanics declined, yes - but so did White students'.

So the repeal had unintended consequences, you might say. But then, GOP voters aren't known for their foresight.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 05:52 PM

2. Now it's a real race again.

 

For the time being at least.

These things, as the article shows, can change quickly and unexpectedly.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 05:52 PM

3. This is why anointments shouldn't be a thing

 

and a primary process has to play out in full. We have several months to determine who most deserves to represent the Dems. There will be many more spotlight moments to come.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to True Dough (Reply #3)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 06:02 PM

6. Exactly right. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 06:01 PM

4. Very good. Thanks.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 06:38 PM

7. Those polls show what could be expected

 

He lost around 6 points after the first debate (in which he did not even participate): this indicates it was a factor of people discovering other good candidates—Castro, Warren, Booker—that they may not have considered previously. And then 4 more points in the second debate, in which he did appear. Probably half of that had to do with Harris’s comments and/or his shaky performance. The other half, again, was a function of people shifting their attention to other candidates or becoming undecided.

That the other candidates didn’t see large shifts isn’t surprising: they were Biden’s to lose, because he was way out front, due to name recognition. But there were 20 candidates to divide those lost points among. Each got a small share of the lost 10 points.

I was predicting Biden’s high standings would slip as people started to listen to less familiar voices, notwithstanding his performance or any controversy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 07:25 PM

8. To soon...all over internet about the pre-planning aspect and the timeline too...we shall see.

 

I predict that Harris did herself no favors here.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #8)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 07:28 PM

9. I agree

 

People are seeing her hit job for what it was. Of course if you listen to MSNBC, she's a super star.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Green Line (Reply #9)

Sat Jun 29, 2019, 07:34 PM

10. The media has been out to get Biden from the get go..I really wonder if they believe Harris

 

can win a general...or if they want Trump to win...the fantasy of the 'woke' party is attractive...only the reality of the moderate house majority won in 18 is well reality. With Harris or Warren, we will be lucky to save the house.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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