With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election

[octoberlib]

In July of 2018, I raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives. In hindsight, that may not seem such a bold prediction, but when my forecast was released, election Twitter was still having a robust debate as to whether the Blue Wave would be large enough for Democrats to pick up the 23 seats they needed to take control of the House of Representatives and return the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi.

Based on its 2018 performance, my model, , seem well poised to tackle the 2020 presidential election – 16 months out. I’ll serve up that result below, but first let’s set the table by reviewing my model’s 2018 forecasting success.

Not only did I predict that they would gain nearly double the seats they needed, but I also identified a specific list of Republican seats Democrats would flip, including some, such as , that were listed as “Lean Republican” by the majority of race raters at the time. At a time when other analysts coded even the most competitive House races for Democrats as Lean or Tilt Democrat, I identified 13 Republican-held districts as “Will Flips,” 12 as “Likely to Flip,” and 6 as “Lean Democrat.” I also identified a large list of “Toss Ups,” from which I would later identify the remaining “flippers.” In addition, I identified some “long-shot toss-up” districts that could be viable flips under some turnout scenarios. Of the original 25 districts I identified as definitely or highly likely to flip, all but one, Colorado CD3, did so, possibly because the party failed to invest in their nominee there.

The post-election diagnostics of my forecasting model, which departs significantly from the approaches used in conventional election forecasting models, such as those used by , reveal just how powerful my model was at identifying the House districts and Senate races capable of producing Blue Wave effects powered by Trump backlash in the electorate. Indeed, the places I went astray in my final, “handicapped” predictions are races where I ignored the clear signals of my model, such as Georgia’s 6th congressional district, which my model was quite clear about flipping, and Kentucky’s 6th, which my model was quite clear couldn’t. Still, in other races, my manual handicapping was necessary, and correct, because despite its overall accuracy, my model underpredicts the Democrats’ two-party vote share in Utah’s 4th district.

Looking ahead to the 2020 Electoral College map, my model delivers on two of the most critical elements of election forecasting: , that is, simplicity. It’s probably not lost on you, dear reader, that I am offering a forecast not for the presidential primary election, itself still in its infancy, but for the November 2020 general election that is some 16 months away. And I am offering a forecast free from all the trappings you are used to. There are no poll aggregators, no daily or weekly updates, no simple versus deluxe versions. Right now, there is not even a nominee! By and large, I don’t expect that the specific nominee the Democratic electorate chooses will matter all that much unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.

Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.

I can't copy and paste the graphics but her electoral vote prediction is Dems: 278 Reps: 197

Her graphic has the breakdown of electoral votes by state.

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

[delisen]

1. How is the Wason Center factoring in Russia as a player in 2020?

[octoberlib]

2. Unless they hack into the systems and change votes, I think we'll be fine.

We're onto their trolling techniques. Of course, it's not impossible. Also, it's not just Russia. I'd add Saudi Arabia as a player , too.

[PETRUS]

3. Wow, that was really interesting reading. Thanks for posting. nt

[octoberlib]

4. I thought it was interesting, too. It was floating around on Twitter.

Of course, we should take it with a grain of salt but her model also predicted Trump's win in 16.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. She makes some good points but ignores the Hispanic realities of 2020

If Donald Trump wins in 2020 it will be due to Hispanics. Beto seems to be the only one who understands that. I realize all this day to day arguing is popular, like the current Biden/Harris nonsense. None of it matters at all in comparison to the big picture.

Hispanics have a long history of benefit of a doubt toward the presidential incumbent, regardless of policies and how they impact the Hispanic community. No other key demographic is at stake right now. I would argue that more than 50% of our emphasis should be toward Hispanics.

There is always a tipoff beforehand. The 2014 midterm demonstrated severe and growing unrest among working class whites. It exploded in 2016, given the preferred vehicle of Donald Trump. The tipoff in 2018 were the two stunning results in Florida. Democrats lost an incumbent senate race, and also a governors race, that we had no business losing. It was accomplished via Republicans quietly fortifying the state for years, while Democrats slept, and then hammering the socialism and fear tactics at targeted segments of the Hispanic community. Nelson and Gillum lost those races due to underperformance in South Florida and especially among Cubans who had voted for Hillary in 2016.

If Democrats spend all of our time arguing about day to day nonsense and overlook the extreme fragility of maintaining the Hispanic numbers from 2016 and 2018, Trump has every opportunity to win the electoral college narrowly again. There are only 4-6% Hispanics in those key midwestern states but that is plenty to tip a tight race. As I've mentioned many times, the relationship of self-identified conservatives and liberals in those states indicates that they are true swing states with only slight advantage to our side, and hardly the automatic pickup that we foolishly believed prior to 2016. When a state reports 4-9% more conservatives than liberals -- which is true for every one of those states -- then we are in jeopardy of candidate-to-candidate or short term situational factors (incumbency) shifting the outcome in the wrong direction.

Only when a state has parity or liberal advantage in that category can we fully relax and take things for granted.

I really can't take any analysis of the 2020 presidential race seriously when it doesn't place huge focus on the Hispanic vote and likelihood that Trump will regain several vital percent of that vote, even if he maintains animosity toward the Hispanic community and enacts policies against them. It is the single greatest untold story toward 2020. There are many indications that Republicans are quietly working to shore up that demographic, while we sleep on it and continue to fight over the past.

I don't want to be saying...I told you so. This should be obvious now, but I'm afraid our party is flooded with inept handicappers, especially at the top.

Biden and Harris toward the Hispanic community. Doesn't that sound almost exactly parallel to Nelson and Gillum, and the problems they had among Hispanics?

Sorry, but it does to me

[Turin_C3PO]

7. Wasn't there a recent poll

showing his approval among Hispanics way underwater? Anecdotal, but here in New Mexico, Trump doesn’t have a prayer of gaining any more Hispanic support. Florida is different, but we can win without Florida, if we have to.

[Honeycombe8]

6. Good news! I hope it's right! I have a feeling of the same....

that any Democrat (barring someone "out there," like Bernie) will have the edge over Trump. Doesn't mean the Democrat will win. Esp since RUSSIA is still trolling & hacking.

But if we win by a bigger margin than before, the RUSSIAN effect can't change the results.