HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » WaPo: Where the Democrati...
Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Wed Jul 10, 2019, 02:05 AM

 

WaPo: Where the Democratic primary race stands after the first debate

The Post-ABC News poll (29 percent), the Emerson poll (30 percent ) and the Morning Consult poll (31 percent) all show former vice president Joe Biden dropping a significant amount yet still in first place. In early states, Biden lost 12 points compared with 7 points overall in the Morning Consult survey.

Morning Consult shows Biden has lost 8 points among African Americans, but not all of his support went to Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.). After the debate, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) also gained slightly (4 percent) with African American voters in that same poll.

In face-to-face match-ups against President Trump, Biden does the best of any Democrat and consistently scores outside the margin of error. Sanders recently has come in slightly above Trump (a shade over 4 percent in the RCP averages), but often within the margin of error. Harris and Warren are about 2 points ahead of Trump in the RCP averages (again within the margin of error).

We have several takeaways from all of this.

First, itís clear that Bidenís support was in fact fragile, as the first significant event in the contest, the debate, demonstrated. His draw, however, has been in large part premised on his ability to beat Trump; if he continues to do a whole lot better against Trump than the other contenders, that advantage will remain...

Fifth, the past few weeks should underscore how unstable the race is and how early we are in the primary. We will see five more debates before the end of the year alone. We are still learning a whole lot about the candidatesí backgrounds and records, and none has started a concerted attack on any other participant...

Finally, weíve seen a dramatic demonstration of how critical the black vote is in the Democratic primary. As we saw in 2008, a front-runner with strong African American support can tumble if those voters find a viable African American contender, as they did with Barack Obama after his Iowa victory. The support of African American voters ó as Obama had in 2008 and Hillary Clinton had in 2016 ó can be absolutely critical, if not determine the outcome. And that, in turn, points to a failure in media coverage: Rather than trace the whims of mostly white, super-progressive voters, the media should be paying a whole lot more attention to African American voters. Itís they who will likely pick the nominee, and in turn, determine whether Democrats can field a winning candidate to boot out Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/07/09/where-democratic-primary-race-stands-after-first-debate/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.df61eef54ec3


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

2 replies, 541 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 2 replies Author Time Post
Reply WaPo: Where the Democratic primary race stands after the first debate (Original post)
Kind of Blue Jul 2019 OP
BlueWI Jul 2019 #1
Kind of Blue Jul 2019 #2

Response to Kind of Blue (Original post)

Wed Jul 10, 2019, 03:43 PM

1. Good analysis. eom

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BlueWI (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 10, 2019, 05:18 PM

2. Yeah, I do appreciate those with as much analysis as possible.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread