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Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 11:41 AM

 

Which states do you think your favorite will pick up? Why?

I don't think I've seen this approach posted yet, and I'm of the opinion that it is the MOST important discussion to have. Popularity? We saw what that got Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Al Gore in 2000 (well that plus the court stolen Florida). I don't want a most popular loser again (I'm talking election, not candidates. Neither Hillary nor Al were losers as people, and I'd never insinuate such). I want a candidate that can make enough of that red turn blue to get OUR candidate to 270.

So, simply put, what red colored states will YOUR choice flip to blue? How and why? I'll give my own assessment separately.




https://www.270towin.com/maps/2016-actual-electoral-map
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Which states do you think your favorite will pick up? Why? (Original post)
Amimnoch Mar 2019 OP
Funtatlaguy Mar 2019 #1
Amimnoch Mar 2019 #2
CrossingTheRubicon Mar 2019 #3
Funtatlaguy Mar 2019 #4
Awsi Dooger Mar 2019 #5
dsc Mar 2019 #7
scheming daemons Mar 2019 #6
dsc Mar 2019 #8

Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 11:46 AM

1. Seeing that map again makes me want to vomit.

 

So many stupid people in so many states.
Iím undecided but look forward to this threads results.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 12:09 PM

2. Me too.

 

I am actually open to changing my choice. IMO, we do have a LOT of incredible talent, experience, personality, and "right on the issues" candidates to choose from.

For me, that map is the end all for us.. win or lose, it depends on that map, not the numbers that turn out to vote as a country, but the numbers by state.

I'm with you on that map making me want to vomit as well.. I've looked at it so many times since orange Hitler took office..
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 12:12 PM

3. "Scranton Joe" Biden would take PA, MI, and WI. That's enough to win.

 

I think he'd also win AZ where Trump isn't popular and Biden is popular.

FL, TX, OH, NC, and GA would all be true battlegrounds.

Joe Biden is the only Democrat running in my estimation who has a clear and uncontestable path to victory in the Electoral College.

Other major contenders could take the popular vote, but...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 12:43 PM

4. We can't rely on any states that are GOP owned and operated.

 

Two examples would be Florida and Georgia.
These are purple states by population.
But, both are run with the crooked GOP controlling the state offices and apparatus.
They know how to suppress Dem votes.
Therefore, until we get control of these states, I donít trust their voting and will not expect statewide wins there no matter who the Dem candidates are.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 12:52 PM

5. The logical pick up order has to look something like this

 

I'll use the liberal/conservative breakdown, which is easily the most revealing and instructive and predictive. I'll be frank and say I don't respect subjectivity that attempts to adjust or deny these numbers in favor of a fanciful version. I watched adjusters lose for 24 years in Las Vegas.

Keep in mind the nation was 35% conservatives and 26% liberals in 2016, for a 9% gap. Likewise the gap was 9% in 2018, as in 36% conservatives and 27% liberals. The percentage of liberals will continue to climb as the older Silent Generation reaches mortality, but it is true that our liberal numbers are inefficiently distributed...i.e. the 37% liberals in California and 35% in New York.

* Pennsylvania -- 33% conservatives 27% liberals for a 6% gap. Since I have followed political math beginning in 1992, Pennsylvania 2016 is the only state that has ever voted red despite an ideological gap lower than the nation itself. I did not believe that was possible. I am not a cynic but if anything seems strange it is Pennsylvania 2016.

* Wisconsin -- 34% conservatives 25% liberals for a 9% gap

* Michigan -- 36% conservatives 27% liberals for a 9% gap

* Florida -- 36% conservatives 25% liberals for an 11% gap

* Arizona -- 41% conservatives 27% liberals for a 14% gap (Note: the Arizona exit poll long reported 40% conservatives then changed to 41%. A friend pointed that out to me as I was continuing to reference the 40%. Changes to fit the actual electorate are normal but that was the most tardy adjustment I have ever seen. It does make sense, however)

* Indiana -- 38% conservatives 22% liberals for a 16% gap

* Iowa -- 40% conservatives 23% liberals for a 17% gap

* Ohio -- 39% conservatives 20% liberals for a 19% gap (Note: Ohio is more of a fraud and lost cause than these numbers reveal. Too many whites and not enough Hispanics or Asians for a logical return. Same is true in Iowa to lesser extent. Likewise Indiana, where self-identified moderates tend to be considerably more right leaning than the national norm)

* North Carolina -- 43% conservatives 22% liberals for a 21% gap (Note: you can see how idiotic it was for Hillary to be emphasizing states with a 20+% no-chance gap while ignoring states that were smack on the national tipping point of 9%)

* Georgia -- 42% conservatives 22% liberals for a 20% gap

* Texas -- 44% conservatives 20% liberals for a 24% gap (Note: Beto and emphasis cut this gap to 43-22 in 2018. Still, as you can see from the numbers Texas is still very far away from legitimate swing state. Nancy Pelosi is indeed a world class moron if she is dense enough to believe that everything flows through Texas in 2020)

* Major Note: a state like Nevada at 36% conservatives and 25% liberals cannot be taken for granted. Note that it is actually outside the national gap at 11% compared to 9%. Recently we have really fortified the Clark County turnout machine, and we also are receiving unusually high support from self-identified moderates. Nevada conservatives are less loyal to Republicans than other states. It is quite comical that Nevada is now considered a cinch and Florida a lost cause, despite both states reporting that 11% gap. I have lived in both states recently and sophistication/emphasis in all the difference. I have reported many times that Democrats dominate voter outreach in Nevada while Republicans do the same in Florida.

* Virginia at 33% conservatives and 26% liberals for a 7% gap is also not exactly a sure thing, despite the positive demographic trend and recent results. We can't afford to take Virginia for granted like Michigan/Wisconsin 2016. Colorado is in the same boat at 35% conservatives and 28% liberals for a 7% gap.

* The states we assume as safe are actually fairly close to the national number. Minnesota is 32% conservatives and 28% liberals for a 4% gap. Likewise New Hampshire at 31% conservatives and 27% liberals for a 4% gap.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 02:19 PM

7. I think you need to account for black populations in this analysis

 

there are many blacks who are conservative but won't vote for any Republican. A state with a high black population can have a higher discrepency in that conservative liberal number but be easier to win than a closer state. VA and NC are examples. She only lost NC by a small amount and we have won every statewide election here since (all Supreme Court and Appellate judges but still we are 5 for 5)
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 01:53 PM

6. Here's my list

 


Kamala Harris: Arizona, NC, PA, Michigan, Wisconsin (299 total)

Joe Biden: PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Iowa (326 total)

Beto O'Rourke: Arizona, Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan (302 total)

Amy Klobuchar: Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Ohio, Iowa (300 total)

Bernie Sanders: Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine's extra 1 - Would lose Nevada (248 total)


None of the rest have a chance at the nomination, so no consideration.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Tue Mar 12, 2019, 02:27 PM

8. I don't have a favorite yet but here is my list

 

I think pretty much anyone is likely to get PA, MI, and WI given the level of buyers remorse in those states. I think Higgenlooper could win AZ. I think Harris, Booker put NC in play and maybe Georgia. I think only Brown had a shot an Ohio. I think Klobochar puts Iowa into possibility. I could see a southerner put Florida into play but we currently don't have one running. I don't know enough about Washington state's demographics to know what demographic Inslee has been running for. We could lose Maine and New Hampshire with the wrong candidate but I think that is unlikely.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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