Sanders 3rd, Biden 4th in New, High-Quality California Poll

[bluewater]

That’s why it’s significant that the best-regarded Golden State poll, taken by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), is showing a turnabout in the nomination contest. Here’s PPIC’s terse summary of its findings:

Based on an open-ended question, the frontrunners are Kamala Harris (19%), Elizabeth Warren (15%), Bernie Sanders (12%), and Joe Biden (11%). Pete Buttigieg (5%) is the only other candidate supported by at least 5 percent, while 25 percent say they don’t know.

Most election preference polls utilize lists of candidates. An open-ended poll, requiring respondents to volunteer their favored candidate, is arguably more accurate, but if anything it puts a thumb on the scale for the better-known rivals. So the fact that the best-known candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, are running, respectively, fourth and third in this survey is a big and surprising development.

Harris’s lead in PPIC’s open-ended poll is, of course, good news for the Californian. She leads the field among self-identified liberals and moderates alike and in every major region. What this really means is that whoever comes steaming out of the early states with momentum will be in a position to win a lot of delegates in California. If PPIC’s findings are any indication, the state will not be any sort of firewall for Joe Biden if he stumbles in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or South Carolina. It could, in fact, represent the death knell for his campaign. But at this point Biden leads in all the four early states. He’d better do well before the contest splits to the Left Coast. There’s no comfort there for him.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/07/sanders-third-biden-fourth-in-high-quality-california-poll.html


This poll was just released by the 538 A rated Public Policy institute of California:

July 14–23, 2019
1,706 California Adult Residents:
English, Spanish
MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.4% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE

Disclaimer: This is an early poll. No single poll's results , especially one this early, should be over emphasized.

[crazytown]

1. What is the sampling period?

IE - how recent is the sample?

[wyldwolf]

2. A popular California senator leads in a presidential primary poll there? Color me shocked.

[ucrdem]

3. Month old news.

[bluewater]

5. Wrong. So wrong.

[bigtree]

4. yep, new California poll

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

7. "If PPIC's findings are any indication, the state will not be any sort of firewall for Joe Biden"

Indeed.

[LakeArenal]

6. Just as I thought.

Polls no longer early or within points spread when Biden is behind.

[bluewater]

8. OP was being updated to included requested information as you posted.

The polling date and margin of error were added as soon as I found them. They were not included in the OP article.

Those and my usual disclaimer were updated as you were making your post here.
That took me a few minutes, sorry for the delay.

[LakeArenal]

9. Or as soon as I posted.

[bluewater]

14. .

[Cha]

15. Exactly "Polls are unreliable a year before an election."

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287212804

SouthernProgressive

[bluewater]

16. lol General Election Polls, says that 538 article.

Did anyone actually read that article? Seems not.

It wasn't about primary polls, it was about... GENERAL ELECTION polls.

"Democrats desperate to beat President Donald Trump this time around have been focused on one word looking toward 2020: electability. And polls should provide a kind of guidepost. But if history is any indication, polling more than a year away from a general election is terribly unreliable. "


But hey, what does 538 know? Why even bother reading their article?

[LakeArenal]

21. Exactly...

But I do "Rock".. so Bluewater says..... Which of course we knew also..

[SouthernProgressive]

10. .

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287212804

[LanternWaste]

11. We rarely say "polls don't matter. It's too soon!!!" when they support our choice.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. It is to soon and could change. But it does appear Biden is fading

To 4th in this poll

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Biden fading

[Tarheel_Dem]

17. And Beto's blowing everyone out of the water in TX. Home state advantage. So?

[bluewater]

18. Great News for both Beto and Harris! LOTS of delegates in Texas and California.

Let's all celebrate for them both!

[Tarheel_Dem]

19. "Celebrate good times....Come on!"

[bluewater]

20. Nice! Love the balloon gif!

I love this gif, so I am going to put it in my post here so I can find it again easier.



Thanks!