After watching the 2 debates these are the candidates I think have a chance

[bloom]

(The others either don't have enough of a 'presence', or they don't know enough for the job, or some other problem.)

Amy Klobuchar

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O'Rourke

Cory Booker

Kamala Harris

[sharedvalues]

1. Agreed. I probably would drop Klobuchar.

And I would add Julián Castro.

And several second-tier candidates have distinguished themselves enough to make a great case for cabinet secretary:
- Inslee
- Bennet (but keep him in the Senate)

[bloom]

4. Yes to Inslee

And various ones could have a place somewhere.

I was thinking Castro except for that I don't think enough was done for Flint - and if he had something to do with that - which it sounds like he did - then that's a problem.

[thesquanderer]

15. I agree, Klobuchar has no chance.

As I said elsewhere, I don't see where she offers anything that isn't available in stronger candidates like Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or even Beto. Her "lane" is too crowded, and she's driving a sub-compact.

[radical noodle]

2. I don't think Sanders has a chance

nor Beto, nor Amy.

[bloom]

6. Maybe not.

I don't think Pete does, either. Maybe in 8 years - if he gets some experience at the National level - in some role or other.

[radical noodle]

10. Realistically, I agree

I personally would vote for Pete over the other candidates if the primary was held tomorrow. That doesn't mean that I believe he can win. You notice I didn't suggest adding him to your list of possibilities. I think he is the best person for the job right now, but he just doesn't have the name recognition.

[Tipperary]

16. Agree with all of those.

[Music Man]

3. Disagree about Klobuchar.

She is exceptionally smart and quick witted, but her campaign just isn't taking traction. I think most voters can't think of a single thing in the past two debates that distinguishes her. She's from the Midwest... maybe?

I also don't see O'Rourke taking off.

I think it will come down to Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Harris. I'd like to think Buttigieg will be in the mix, but I'm not sure (I say that with Buttigieg currently being my #1). Booker maybe and Castro maybe will be in the final tier.

[bloom]

5. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out in the next week or so.

I thought Biden looked like he was done. He was not keeping up.

I would put the top 3 as Warren, Harris, Sanders (except that I don't know if Sanders can make it, either.)

So that makes it Warren and Harris.

[Music Man]

7. I agree with you there.

Warren and Harris certainly have the momentum now, and I think they'll absolutely be there at the end.

I sense some fatigue from voters over Sanders and Biden, even though Sanders had a good debate last night.

What will be interesting is to see how the primaries will play out, as Sanders, Harris, and Warren are much closer to each other politically than Biden, and they would seem to split a similar voting block, leaving Biden to clean up.

[cannabis_flower]

9. I'm looking forward

to Elizabeth Warren being on the stage with Joe Biden. I didn't think Biden did well in either debate. In particular, several times he completely ignored the question and went off in another direction. I think Elizabeth is going to wipe the floor with him.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Mostly can't agree. The poll numbers are just not there

You do realize that the average voter does not pick their candidate based on debates

[bloom]

14. I don't really care what Biden's poll numbers are at this point.

Typically the winner is not ahead in the polls the year before. That just reflects name recognition - not who people think would actually be the best candidate.

[Raine]

11. No ... I think Beto and Booker don't have

much of a chance.

[Garrett78]

12. It's a 2-person race. Ultimately, it'll come down to Biden and Harris.

Sanders was never going to be the nominee for reasons that have been discussed repeatedly. And Warren can't win because of Sanders. Mayor Pete will fade.

That leaves just 2 candidates who are polling well, Biden and Harris. The Black vote will be key, as always. And the key to Harris winning over Black Biden supporters will be her doing well in the early states (the way Obama did in 2008 against Clinton). We'll have our nominee after Super Tuesday, just as we did in 2016 (Bernie Math aside).

Maybe Booker or Inslee or Castro will surge but I doubt it. When the dust settles, it's Biden or Harris.

[bloom]

20. I don't think Biden is that strong

I think he is just riding the name recognition wave.

I see Warren and Harris as the strongest candidates. And Bernie - but I think his embrace of socialism probably would hurt him.

[Garrett78]

23. I also think his strength is overstated, but I give him better odds than Warren.

If Sanders wasn't running, Warren would stand a better chance. They'll hurt one another in Iowa and New Hampshire. And I don't see either doing very well on Super Tuesday.

There's a lack of enthusiasm for Biden, but he's a known quantity and he benefits from the narrative that says we need an old white male to defeat an old white male.

[joshcryer]

21. The Black vote decides this race.

Just like it did in 2016.

Warren and Sanders just are a non-starter.

[Garrett78]

22. Yep. People are over-complicating this race.

[SaschaHM]

13. My list is...

Harris.
Warren.
Biden.

Booker isn't connecting w/ voters despite his performance in these things. Beto's shine/luster has been stolen by Buttigieg. Sanders, imo, had too many Warren and Biden voters in his 2016 coalition that have since gone home and they probably won't come back.

Ultimately, it will come between those 3 w/ Biden winning, but Warren or Harris having a 2nd place finish and a strong passionate following necessitating a unity ticket despite how nasty the primary may get (which tbh is pretty tame so far despite what people's supporters will cry about on DU). Biden has to be careful not to fall into the Clinton 2008 trap though. If he takes the nomination, it's because of his strength with black voters. His attacks on Harris may run the risk of turning them off of him and on to her if they're not planned perfectly.

[Peacetrain]

17. My choices

Biden..

Buttigieg

Warren

Klobuchar

[mtnsnake]

18. Looking into the future, I think these candidates have the best chance of becoming our nominee:

in this order:

1: Warren

2: Buttigieg (I think he has a better chance than what most people are giving him)

3: Sanders

4: Biden

5: Harris

6: Bennet (Look out for this guy in the coming months)

7: Klobuchar

8: Castro

[Autumn]

19. That's pretty much mine except for Klobuchar. I would love to see Inslee gain traction. nt