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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

CaliforniaPeggy

(149,307 posts)
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 04:19 AM Aug 2019

Pete Buttigieg's Only Problem with Black Voters is They Don't Know Who He Is

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/08/08-buttigieg-favorability/?fbclid=IwAR0E_OS3smYM7ADRGYKs0jlC0XhNdcOLBu9pmLj7CaLz9LP-K6G39P3zBUM

From the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy

Heading into the final stretch of summer pundits continue to marvel at Joe Biden’s continued primacy in the Democratic primary polls. Biden’s robust support among black voters is often cited as one of the main drivers behind his continued frontrunner status. Pundits usually discount the ability of his main opponents, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, to overtake him based on their lackluster performance among this key constituency of the Democratic Party.

At the end of July, when Monmouth University released their latest South Carolina poll Biden lead the horserace with 39% of the vote, including the support of 51% of blacks respondents. No other candidate came close to challenging Biden. In terms of support among black voters, Buttigieg carried just 1%, Warren 2%, and Harris 12%. The numbers are so overwhelming and have changed so little since Monmouth’s poll at the beginning of July, it is easy to understand why pundits have come to the conclusion that the other Democratic candidates are failing to woo black voters. But the truth is, a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate has yet to tune into the primary, and this has profound impacts on polling data.

Pundits usually preface their assessment of primary polling data with the disclaimer that name recognition is an important driver of both Joe Biden’s as well as Bernie Sanders’ leads in the polls at this point in the process. But few truly comprehend just how profound an impact name recognition, combined with low interest and low participation rates, has on early polling data.

A common misconception is that name recognition can be adequately controlled for. Analysts have a strong incentive to find a way to compare low and high name ID candidates because failing to do so severely limits the use of early polling data. In the case of the massive 2020 Democratic field, we have 2 well-known, nationally recognized candidates and 21 obscure candidates virtually unknown outside their own states. Just 1% of potential Democratic primary voters fail to identify Joe Biden in Morning Consult's Tracking Data,
compared to 7% for Bernie Sanders because Sanders was the runner-up in last cycle’s primary and Biden was Vice President for 8 years under Obama.


The rest at the link. Yes, it's long, but well worth reading.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Pete Buttigieg's Only Problem with Black Voters is They Don't Know Who He Is (Original Post) CaliforniaPeggy Aug 2019 OP
Not sure that's true. A black gay friend was reminding me recently pnwmom Aug 2019 #1
Its a problem for any "new" candidate; name recognition. Regardless of race. oldsoftie Aug 2019 #2
I think a similar argument can be made to any of the candidates who aren't in the top 5 still_one Aug 2019 #3
Many of my friends know who he is. RLG Aug 2019 #4
that's reason number two. we all know the real reason number one nt msongs Aug 2019 #5
He's the mayor of South Bend. Isn't that where they kept killing Kenny? JustABozoOnThisBus Aug 2019 #6
We know exactly who he is. rogue emissary Aug 2019 #7
 

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
1. Not sure that's true. A black gay friend was reminding me recently
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 05:11 AM
Aug 2019

that many African Americans are more on the moderate side, especially with regard to attitudes about LGBT. As a gay man, he feels more accepted among whites, than among black people in his home town. A lot of this has to do with the churches that many African Americans belong to.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oldsoftie

(12,410 posts)
2. Its a problem for any "new" candidate; name recognition. Regardless of race.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 06:16 AM
Aug 2019

Just as early polls probably showed Pete with near zero support. Nobody knew him yet. Numbers change as you get noticed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

still_one

(91,963 posts)
3. I think a similar argument can be made to any of the candidates who aren't in the top 5
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 07:42 AM
Aug 2019

That is why the debates to let the candidates introduce themselves

However, there are other reasons too. For one thing we simply have too many candidates with many essentially duplicating each other ideologically, that in many cases it comes down to personality preferences, and who someone feels best able to first win the GE, and actually accomplish something

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RLG

(314 posts)
4. Many of my friends know who he is.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 08:31 AM
Aug 2019

The problem for him will be the South Bend issues many in DU dismiss but others will use against him like "All Lives Matter" and the demotion of South Bend's first AA police chief.

I know he has an explanation for both issues, but like Hillary and the "superpredators" comment, it's going to be hard for him to woo black millennials because of it. I wish him luck.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

msongs

(67,197 posts)
5. that's reason number two. we all know the real reason number one nt
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:21 PM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,283 posts)
6. He's the mayor of South Bend. Isn't that where they kept killing Kenny?
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 06:26 PM
Aug 2019

That bastard!

I'd bet plenty of black voters know who he is. But at this point, most seem to lean toward Biden. I don't think Mayor Pete has a chance of being the Dem Nominee. I'd be happy to vote for him in the general if he gets that far.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

rogue emissary

(3,147 posts)
7. We know exactly who he is.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 10:37 PM
Aug 2019

Rachel Bitecofer giving that title to this piece is essentially call African Americans ignorant.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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