HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » Pete Buttigieg's Only Pro...
Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 04:19 AM

 

Pete Buttigieg's Only Problem with Black Voters is They Don't Know Who He Is

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/08/08-buttigieg-favorability/?fbclid=IwAR0E_OS3smYM7ADRGYKs0jlC0XhNdcOLBu9pmLj7CaLz9LP-K6G39P3zBUM

From the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy

Heading into the final stretch of summer pundits continue to marvel at Joe Biden’s continued primacy in the Democratic primary polls. Biden’s robust support among black voters is often cited as one of the main drivers behind his continued frontrunner status. Pundits usually discount the ability of his main opponents, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, to overtake him based on their lackluster performance among this key constituency of the Democratic Party.

At the end of July, when Monmouth University released their latest South Carolina poll Biden lead the horserace with 39% of the vote, including the support of 51% of blacks respondents. No other candidate came close to challenging Biden. In terms of support among black voters, Buttigieg carried just 1%, Warren 2%, and Harris 12%. The numbers are so overwhelming and have changed so little since Monmouth’s poll at the beginning of July, it is easy to understand why pundits have come to the conclusion that the other Democratic candidates are failing to woo black voters. But the truth is, a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate has yet to tune into the primary, and this has profound impacts on polling data.

Pundits usually preface their assessment of primary polling data with the disclaimer that name recognition is an important driver of both Joe Biden’s as well as Bernie Sanders’ leads in the polls at this point in the process. But few truly comprehend just how profound an impact name recognition, combined with low interest and low participation rates, has on early polling data.

A common misconception is that name recognition can be adequately controlled for. Analysts have a strong incentive to find a way to compare low and high name ID candidates because failing to do so severely limits the use of early polling data. In the case of the massive 2020 Democratic field, we have 2 well-known, nationally recognized candidates and 21 obscure candidates virtually unknown outside their own states. Just 1% of potential Democratic primary voters fail to identify Joe Biden in Morning Consult's Tracking Data,
compared to 7% for Bernie Sanders because Sanders was the runner-up in last cycle’s primary and Biden was Vice President for 8 years under Obama.


The rest at the link. Yes, it's long, but well worth reading.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

7 replies, 688 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Pete Buttigieg's Only Problem with Black Voters is They Don't Know Who He Is (Original post)
CaliforniaPeggy Aug 2019 OP
pnwmom Aug 2019 #1
oldsoftie Aug 2019 #2
still_one Aug 2019 #3
RLG Aug 2019 #4
msongs Aug 2019 #5
JustABozoOnThisBus Aug 2019 #6
rogue emissary Aug 2019 #7

Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 05:11 AM

1. Not sure that's true. A black gay friend was reminding me recently

 

that many African Americans are more on the moderate side, especially with regard to attitudes about LGBT. As a gay man, he feels more accepted among whites, than among black people in his home town. A lot of this has to do with the churches that many African Americans belong to.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 06:16 AM

2. Its a problem for any "new" candidate; name recognition. Regardless of race.

 

Just as early polls probably showed Pete with near zero support. Nobody knew him yet. Numbers change as you get noticed.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 07:42 AM

3. I think a similar argument can be made to any of the candidates who aren't in the top 5

 

That is why the debates to let the candidates introduce themselves

However, there are other reasons too. For one thing we simply have too many candidates with many essentially duplicating each other ideologically, that in many cases it comes down to personality preferences, and who someone feels best able to first win the GE, and actually accomplish something
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 08:31 AM

4. Many of my friends know who he is.

 

The problem for him will be the South Bend issues many in DU dismiss but others will use against him like "All Lives Matter" and the demotion of South Bend's first AA police chief.

I know he has an explanation for both issues, but like Hillary and the "superpredators" comment, it's going to be hard for him to woo black millennials because of it. I wish him luck.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:21 PM

5. that's reason number two. we all know the real reason number one nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 06:26 PM

6. He's the mayor of South Bend. Isn't that where they kept killing Kenny?

 

That bastard!

I'd bet plenty of black voters know who he is. But at this point, most seem to lean toward Biden. I don't think Mayor Pete has a chance of being the Dem Nominee. I'd be happy to vote for him in the general if he gets that far.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 10:37 PM

7. We know exactly who he is.

 

Rachel Bitecofer giving that title to this piece is essentially call African Americans ignorant.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread