Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumNY Mag: Surging in Polls, Elizabeth Warren Now Has a Path to the Nomination
(This is also posted in the Warren group, of which I am not currently a member. Note also this is based on information before this weekend's appearances in Iowa)
Warren is also clearly making gains in her implicit rivalry with her friend and ally Bernie Sanders for the affections of self-consciously progressive voters, even as she maintains some potential as a party-unifying figure that Bernie may lack thanks to leftover bad memories of his 2016 campaign. In that recent national Quinnipiac survey, she trounced Sanders among very liberal voters and actually led him among those under the age of 35.
Whether or not you think Sanders is losing strength (theres evidence pointing in both directions on that proposition), it is clear that Warren is benefiting from the erosion in Kamala Harriss support, which probably reflects both the dissipation of the buzz she commanded after the first round of debates and her widely panned performance in the second. Harriss national polling average has dropped from 15 to 8 percent in the last month. And perhaps just as important, shes showing little or no progress in taking away Joe Bidens overpowering position among African-American voters, central to the Obama Redux strategy she is relying on. Quinnipiac gives her just one percent of the black vote nationally. A somewhat older Monmouth survey of South Carolina showed Harris with 12 percent of African-American support in what for her is a key state, where a majority of Democratic primary voters are black but Joe Biden had 51 percent.
Put all that together with the inability of any candidates outside the Big Four of Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris to gain any momentum at all, and for the first time you can clearly see a plausible path to the nomination for Warren.
LINK
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)what's sobering is that she's getting it from Harris and Sanders supporters. The Harris paragraph is particularly instructive: she's back to where she was before her T-shirt moment which is how she'll be remembered for all time. Gotta wonder if it was worth it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Faux pas
(14,643 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Autumn
(44,972 posts)K&R
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Dough
(17,246 posts)She's presented herself and her policies extremely well. There's a lot to like about Elizabeth Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JI7
(89,239 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
FloridaBlues
(4,002 posts)She did move up for a few weeks. It's early .
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,691 posts)Her biggest problem is her poor showing with AA voters...coming in at just 8%
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
corbettkroehler
(1,898 posts)I support Sanders but defy anyone to prove that Warren had no path from the outset. The senior senator from Massachusetts is too accomplished, progressive and caring ever to have lacked a path.
Her 2019Q2 fundraising numbers prove my point. She did great.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided