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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:42 AM

 

Who will be the Not Biden candidate in March?

I think that after the first four primaries that it will be very clear what the race looks like.
I think by then (unless Bidenmakes some really egregious errors) that we will have narrowed it down to a two person race.
Biden vs somebody else.
Odds are that person will be Sanders, Warren, or Harris.
Now, hereís the rub.
Will the other two drop out before SuperTuesday in March?
If not, that really helps Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:45 AM

1. The not Biden polling is about 2x Biden.

 

Unless Biden wins via winner take all primaries, as things now stand Not Biden could decide the outcome.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:49 AM

2. Bernie will not drop out...

 

I hope Liz Warren is one of the top 2. But I wouldn't be heartbroken if Kamala Harris is one of the top 2 either.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Fresh_Start (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 11:14 AM

7. He is weak in IA but strong in NH. He is weak in SC but strong in NV. That is why he will stay in.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Fresh_Start (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:53 PM

15. But he still won't be the nominee. He has done precisely

 

nothing to expand his base.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:49 AM

3. Not Biden -

 

Does not poll well against Rump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to OhZone (Reply #3)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:52 AM

5. you still believe in polls?

 

after 2016 when polls assured us Hillary had 97.9% chance of winning?
forget polls and just be sure to vote!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to at140 (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 11:16 AM

8. Polls do not measure the EC. They measure the popular vote which she won handily.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:28 PM

11. I would have loved to have seen some more state by state

 

Polling in the last few weeks before November 2016.
Iím not 100% convinced that there wasnít hanky panky in the three large Democratic cities of Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
Was there any Election Day exit polling in those cities or in their 3 states.?
I never saw any.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 01:36 PM

18. There were tons of state polls on RCP

 

Real Clear Politics shows statewide polls in addition to national polls.
don't remember Trump leading in any polls in PA & MI.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to at140 (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 11:18 AM

10. "Believe in" -

 

Not like a religious thing.

No.

Not like a religious thing.

But they are interesting snapshots.

And I know they are imperfect.

But they can give an idea of what things look like at the moment.

As far as Clinton goes, if the electoral college didn't exist, that predictor was pretty accurate for the popular vote.

Now, you have to look at averages and trends. Nate Silver did notice a trend toward Trump at the last moment, if you remember.

Also, the prediction markets were much more accurate again in 2018!!

So, yeah, I do not completely discount polls.

But at the same time, I do know that things change.

However, for the moment, NOTBIDEN does not poll as well against Rump as BIDEN does.







If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to at140 (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 01:01 PM

16. Belief in the certainty of polls is what too many on the Left had in WI, MI, and PA.

 

They were convinced that Clinton would win so that freed them either not to vote for either her or Trump because they bought the Big Lie that both were the same (propaganda is how the Russians really swayed the election) or it made it ok for them to vote 3rd party like for Jill Stein who here in Wisconsin received more votes than Trump's margin of victory.

Until the horses leave the starting gate, none of them are in the lead. It's just the odds before the race showing who is the likely winner and then down the line.

Yeah, forget the polls, just vote.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to elocs (Reply #16)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 01:34 PM

17. ---/this/---

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 10:51 AM

4. Biden, Warren, maybe Harris. Sanders is losing support to Warren, and his base is not expanding

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to still_one (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 11:00 AM

6. Harris continues to fade. Will not be a factor.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Sneederbunk (Reply #6)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:47 PM

13. Most of the Harris supporters I've talked to

 

have Warren as their second choice.

A lot of the Warren supporters I've talked to have Harris as their second choice.

I've talked to a lot of people this summer, as we pulled our county Dem party float in parades.

No Biden organizer has even shown up at any of the parades. Every other major campaign has at least had a staffer or two show up at some event.

At the last parade, Sestack was walking with us. He's really likable, talked with my husband for a while.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 11:17 AM

9. I really like Harris

 

The choice between Biden and Harris would be a win/win senecio
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #9)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:36 PM

12. I really think they'd be a dynamite ticket.

 

Some think their first debate busing discussion would negate the idea.
I donít think so.
Tickets have had much worse bad blood and been successful, Reagan/Bush for example.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 12:52 PM

14. Warren most likely given the current situation...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Thu Aug 22, 2019, 02:02 PM

19. Come March, I don't think Biden will be in it. Nor do I think Bernie will be in the running by then

 

I think it will be a two or three person race in March with Warren most likely the front runner. Plus a couple of other candidates, possibly Harris, Buttigieg, or maybe even someone like Castro, Steyer, or Bennet by that time.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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