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[kentuck]

This message was self-deleted by its author (kentuck) on Tue Aug 27, 2019, 07:19 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. When he is not the frontrunner

And down 10 or 15 percent I may worry a little?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. The only poll that shows a significant drop in support is the Monmouth poll.

While this is a reputable poll, none of the others reflect the same drop, and they all have to be averaged in order to show a genuine trend. Whether the Monmouth results will be reflected in later polls remains to be seen but a single poll isn't enough to prove anything.

[DrToast]

4. Oh you caught that, too?

The latest polls do not reflect well for him.

Oh no! Do tell.

He is now behind both Elizabeth and Bernie in the latest national poll.

Oh. So one poll.

[bluewater]

6. Forgot about the latest Economist/YouGov Poll perhaps?

August 21st

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Economist/YouGov

Biden 22, Sanders 19, Warren 18, Harris 8, Buttigieg 8, O'Rourke 3, Booker 2, Yang 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 0, Williamson 0, Steyer 0

Biden +3



Is this an emerging trend to watch for in the polls?

Time will tell.

[Grasswire2]

8. the data on that poll is interesting

Seems the poll disproportionately reflects voters under 50 in its total voters polled (about 250 people).

But other Dems will sure use it to beat him up until another poll is out

[Gothmog]

10. From Nate Silver re recent poll

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[BannonsLiver]

12. The sample size does seem small for a national poll

But who am I to question our resident experts. We are so blessed to have objective, agenda free analysis of polling posted here every day.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

47. This guy makes an interesting point.

Link to tweet

[gldstwmn]

3. Gaffes are one thing. I can live with

Gaffes. I'm worried about potential senility or worse.

[kentuck]

7. Shhhh...

We are not supposed to talk about that.

[gldstwmn]

24. Oops I forgot.

Seriously though no one is doing themselves any favors by ignoring the elephant in the room.

[Eliot Rosewater]

32. Now the GOP is CERTAIN to imply he is senile if he is the nominee...why do people fall for

attacking our own candidates like this?

Have we learned nothing?

[jalan48]

34. Do you think the GOP depends on DU for their talking points? I hate to break it to you but

we're just not that important in the big scheme of things.

[Autumn]

41. So we bury our heads in the sand. And guess what? The fucking GOP is going to say it anyway.

THAT'S what I have learned. There are videos, discussing those actual events is not an attack.

[gldstwmn]

48. I didn't attack anyone. My opinion is Biden

may have a health issue. It's a valid concern and well founded at this point. And yes, if I can see it they certainly will. Others may carry on down that river in Egypt.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. IKR!! How is that allowed?!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[redstateblues]

27. Potential smear there

[AtheistCrusader]

38. It's a difficult thing, and comes down to the 'gut feel' of the individual viewer.

There was a time that Ronnie Raygun worried a lot of people about that sort of thing, but the Republicans ran with him anyway.
Later we all discovered the fears were correct, and the world a poorer place for it.

'old guy' and 'gaffes' together are always going to raise these questions, however fair or unfair.


With respect to the TOS, the subject of fitness for a candidate in all aspects, physical, character, political history, should all be vetted and at least understood/accepted, if not explicitly allowed or disqualifying. There's a material difference between a drive-by slam, and a genuine concern.

I've supported Bernie in the past. I would abandon him in favor of another candidate if needed on these grounds.
I support Warren now, I would abandon her for another candidate if needed on these grounds.

At least, insofar as all candidates for commander in chief should be held to the same standards for said fitness.

I don't think Biden is senile, or should be disqualified for his age, to state it plainly. The gaffes are problematic though, and will continue to raise the connotation in hostile press, for as long as he is the frontrunner.

[onetexan]

45. +1 K&R

[Skya Rhen]

5. You do realize that this "latest" poll was taken about 10 days ago, around the same time the CNN

poll was taken which shows Biden leading by 14 points. Fact.

There is no correlation to said "gaffes"..

[bluewater]

11. It was taken LATER the CNN Poll though.

The CNN poll was conducted Aug 15-18, 2019.

Perhaps there were more gaffes during August 16 to 20, 2019 when the Monmouth Poll was conducted?



Or previous gaffes had more time to sink in?

[Skya Rhen]

14. By CNN'S Harry Enten

Snip...

If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..

Snip...

When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.

Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.

The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.

You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.



https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-poll-analysis/index.html

[Thekaspervote]

26. Yes, he still remains in the lead. One poll doesn't cut it. Not my opinion but the experts at 538

[Green Line]

15. That makes sense

[riverine]

13. Serious question. Did you write a "Kamala Harris campaign is in trouble" thread in the last two

months?

She is now at the 5% level.

Or do you target just one candidate?

[Trenzalore]

17. Biden is the front runner nt.

[Princetonian]

16. One poll not "polls". Monmouth is an outlier with a 5.7% MOE. Wrong on his age group stat too.

Joe leads 38% with those 65 and up, followed by Warren at 18%, Buttigieg & Harris tied at 7%
Joe leads with 29% for those 45-64, followed by Liz at 18%, then Bernie at 11%
Joe is tied with Liz at 18% to Bernie's 19% for those 30-44
Joe is at 9%, Liz at 18%, Bernie at 23% for those under 30

Source: Economist

[floppyboo]

23. and then there's this poll here on DU. Biden +1 from 2 weeks ago. Warren has surged here. nt

[Thekaspervote]

35. That's true... DU is a rare group of political wonks. Doesn't represent the voting public thou

Here’s another poll done right here on DU just yesterday

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287253481

DU’ers voted for
Biden 43%
Warren 16%
Sanders 13%

More at the link

[floppyboo]

40. Missed that. Probably on ignore.

[Princetonian]

36. Thanks. No surprise...

[DownriverDem]

18. My focus

Biden has my support. I want someone who can start undoing trump's policies from the start. He'll have an experienced team immediately in place. Biden running with a strong progressive Dem woman would be a formidable ticket. We have never had a woman VP and being next in line would be seen by all. Americans are behind when it comes to supporting women leaders. trump does not want to run against Biden. trump needs Pennsylvania to win. Biden can win PA since it was where he was born and lived until 10. My focus is winning the Electoral College which is state by state.

[Thekaspervote]

37. This!

[AtheistCrusader]

42. Um...

Quinnipiac/Emerson show Biden up over Trump by 10pts in PA, but I don't think it's because he lived there till the age of 10...

That would be a pretty ephemeral reason, don't you think?

[paulkienitz]

19. I thought from the very beginning that this huge field would come down to Elizabeth vs Joe.

And even then I thought it would end up being pretty even odds.

[floppyboo]

25. It's going to be way more interesting as Sanders v. Warren! Imagine That!!! nt

[hlthe2b]

20. the single Monmouth poll is an outlier as per this CNN analysis. Time (and more polls) will tell...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-august-democrats-biden-warren-sanders/index.html

Joe Biden probably still leads the Democratic race

It's the first national poll that meets CNN's standards since early July to find that there is no clear leader in the Democratic nomination fight, and the first all year to find Biden even statistically insignificantly behind.
So does Monmouth's poll mark a turning point in the Democratic race for president? Or is this merely an outlier that later polls won't back up? My inclination is to say that it's an outlier and to pay attention to the average, though the truth is that we just don't know.
Let's place the Monmouth poll into context of what other polls have found.

If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters.
Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.

[Demsrule86]

21. Wishful thinking on your part and what about Sen. Warren's inabiity so far to connect with AA voters

very important constituency. Biden is the front runner has been since he entered the race.

[emmaverybo]

22. And that's the real story: "Joe Biden Still Leads."

Fix the damage Joe.
The world needs you

[redstateblues]

28. If she can't she will share the same fate as HRC

[Thekaspervote]

43. Indeed SC the bellwether for the AA vote is not good at just 2%

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-black-voters_n_5d41f2fae4b0ca604e2c18c1?

[Eliot Rosewater]

29. I will quote Al Davis

Joe
Kamala
Liz
Cory
Pete

even Bernie

just win Baby

I wonder if a certain group of folks will say the same?

[BlueMTexpat]

30. I think that it is really too early

to say something like this. But that's JMO.

We'll see how things play out. But I also believe that Elizabeth Warren will continue to receive more recognition at all levels and with all constituencies, especially as more people actually meet her and can judge for themselves.

She is making those meetings possible and people are responding positively.

[redstateblues]

31. You know what they say about opinions

[Kurt V.]

33. the normies haven't waded in yet. the polling (all polling) will be more accurate in a month.

[Blue_true]

46. I believe it is going to come down to Biden versus Warren for the nomination.

Warren is carefully putting in place infrastructure that will become more important as voting nears, I don't see that from other candidates to the same extent.

[brooklynite]

49. Hanging your analysis on one poll is problematic

Link to tweet