Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumOMG, Sanders within 8.1% of Biden in RCP POLLS Tracker !
While we were all focused on Biden in the Monmouth Poll, the CNN Poll, the Hill/HarrisX Poll, the Emerson Poll and the MorningConsult Poll, we all forgot to look at Sanders gaining ground.
According to the RCP Polls Tracker, Biden's AVERAGE lead in the polls is now down to just 8.1% over Sanders in second place.
As some better polls for Biden dropped off the tracker, his AVERAGE level of support is now 27.3% compared to the surging Sanders at 19.2%.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Disclaimer: It is over 5 months until actual voting starts. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.
Well, I guess I was right when I said that the race for the 2020 Democratic Nomination remains wide open.
Biden no longer has a double digit lead over his nearest rival.
Is this a sign of things to come?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)time promoting your candidate rather than attempting to discredit Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)So posting the results of the RCPPolls Tracker is now BASHING Biden?
Please.
Just, Please.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Monmouth poll.
And don't you think it's strange that Biden's support has supposedly plummeted almost 20 points on Monmouth's polling without anything happening to explain it?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
treestar
(82,383 posts)your hopes that Biden's support will decrease.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,116 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)Those that support him knew the polls would fluctuate.. big deal
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,116 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)Something other than posts with Bidens demise. Subtle ... or not so subtle.
Not to mention the number of times the same posts and comments were repeated.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Honestly.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)It certainly is interesting.
Polls have said that Biden supporters second choice was Bernie Sanders, perhaps that was accurate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,300 posts)Is that when either Warren or Sanders leave the race, they're likely to endorse each other. If/when Warren picks up most of Bernie's supporters (or vice-versa), that would be a huge push. Likely more than enough to put one of those two candidates over the top, if they're not already by then.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%
Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%
Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%
More at the link
Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%
So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.
And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)I don't know how you go from Biden to Bernie. Sounds like people only interested in name recognition.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)With big name recognition
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Otto Lidenbrock
(581 posts)Whereas Biden has that moderate lane all to himself
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)Warren and sanders voters have astonishingly little in common.
More at the link
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/12/sanders-warren-voters-2020-1408548
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Thanks for the thread bluewater.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Good luck to your candidate as well.
Peace to you bluewater.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Vegas Roller
(704 posts)omg! OMG!! OMG !!! OMG!!!! OMG!!!!!
(Some might need smelling salt)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Doodley
(9,078 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)But no worries, more polls come out almost every day. No need to cherry-pick polls to bolster a candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Doodley
(9,078 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)Especially when its not something one wants to hear
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ThreeDimensional
(11 posts)I know 2016 was, like, 20 years ago in internet years, but for sure y'all haven't forgotten who the polls predicted would win?
I say ignore the polls, put your head down, and work for your candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-26/poll-biden-sanders-warren-tied-democratic-2020-primary
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That helps to minimize systematic error and smooths out the noise a bit in the polling results.
Hence, looking at the RCP Polls Tracker of average results for the candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)bumpitty bump!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(28,813 posts)Dedicated may be one term.
But Joe remains in the lead consistently.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indykatie
(3,695 posts)Monmouth had Biden Trailing Sanders by 1. Biden has never trailed in any poll that I m aware of.
The 3 newest polls at RCP have Biden's lead ranging from 7 to 13 points. But hey, you obviously have an anti-Biden bias so carry on.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(48,959 posts)And the only reason it's that close is the outlier Monmouth poll which is looking worse with every new poll that comes out.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden