Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 03:45 PM
Morning Consult Post Debate Poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 20%, Warren 18%, Harris 6%
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
58 replies, 2743 views
 58 replies |
Author | Time | Post |
 Morning Consult Post Debate Poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 20%, Warren 18%, Harris 6% (Original post) |
Otto Lidenbrock | Sep 2019 | OP |
| LincolnRossiter | Sep 2019 | #1 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #3 | |
| Tiggeroshii | Sep 2019 | #5 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #8 | |
| LincolnRossiter | Sep 2019 | #6 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #9 | |
| LincolnRossiter | Sep 2019 | #11 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #12 | |
| LincolnRossiter | Sep 2019 | #15 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #17 | |
| LincolnRossiter | Sep 2019 | #18 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #24 | |
| Hassin Bin Sober | Sep 2019 | #10 | |
| HeartlandProgressive | Sep 2019 | #20 | |
| redstateblues | Sep 2019 | #56 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #23 | |
| emmaverybo | Sep 2019 | #55 | |
| ritapria | Sep 2019 | #2 | |
| Joe941 | Sep 2019 | #27 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #28 | |
| Tiggeroshii | Sep 2019 | #4 | |
| Otto Lidenbrock | Sep 2019 | #7 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #13 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 2019 | #48 | |
| OilemFirchen | Sep 2019 | #16 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #19 | |
| OilemFirchen | Sep 2019 | #31 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #37 | |
| OilemFirchen | Sep 2019 | #40 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #41 | |
| OilemFirchen | Sep 2019 | #42 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #43 | |
| OilemFirchen | Sep 2019 | #44 | |
| bluewater | Sep 2019 | #46 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #22 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #21 | |
| Demsrule86 | Sep 2019 | #47 | |
| Kahuna7 | Sep 2019 | #14 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #25 | |
| Kahuna7 | Sep 2019 | #26 | |
| Thekaspervote | Sep 2019 | #29 | |
| Kahuna7 | Sep 2019 | #32 | |
| redstateblues | Sep 2019 | #57 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #30 | |
| ritapria | Sep 2019 | #33 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #34 | |
| Tarheel_Dem | Sep 2019 | #35 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #36 | |
| Skya Rhen | Sep 2019 | #49 | |
| JI7 | Sep 2019 | #38 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #39 | |
| Cha | Sep 2019 | #45 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #50 | |
| Cha | Sep 2019 | #51 | |
| peggysue2 | Sep 2019 | #53 | |
| Cha | Sep 2019 | #54 | |
| MadDAsHell | Sep 2019 | #52 | |
| Scurrilous | Sep 2019 | #58 |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 03:52 PM
1. They obviously haven't factored in Corn Pop gate yet.
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That’ll get Biden down.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #1)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 03:59 PM
3. RCP POLLS: Biden now down to 26.2% Average support with this poll.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
And his lead over Warren 17% and Sanders16.8% is also down, now at +9.2 So, something is happening, no? 
Looking at the trend on the RCP POLLS tracker, the primary race definitely seems to be tightening up. But I am sure this will fluctuate some, we will have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #3)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:03 PM
5. It is tightening for sure
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #5)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:12 PM
8. Looking at the past 6 weeks of polling, Biden is shown fading.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #3)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:06 PM
6. Sure. A lot of more favorable polls fell out of the average. Those that currently make up th current
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #6)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:13 PM
9. The trend is what the trend is...
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Looking at the past 6 weeks of polling, Biden is shown fading.
Anyone can see the actual trend for themselves here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html Older polls are dropped, that is true, because they are , well, older. But the polls that are regularly strong for Biden, like the MorningConsult Poll and the Hill/HarrisX poll are included in today's numbers. The highly rated CNN poll is also included still today.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #9)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:19 PM
11. The trend is negligible. He was ahead approximately 10.5 a couple of weeks ago. He's about
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #11)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:22 PM
12. um, no... Biden was at 32.2% on august 5th compared to 26.2% today
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That's a 6% drop in Biden's actual support in 5 weeks.
The lead, which is also decreasing, is only the lead over the nearest rival, it does not show that BOTH Warren and Sanders have been gaining support while Biden has been fading significantly.
This is significant for future delegate counts in the up coming primaries.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #12)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:28 PM
15. Again, this polling sample happens to capture most the the polls he's done relatively poorly in and
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #15)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:35 PM
17. The Hill/HarrisX poll is factored in. lol
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How many HarrisX polls do you want to be counted in the polling average cycle?
The trend is what the trend is. It will fluctuate, but clearly the trend over the last 6 weeks has seen Biden fading. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html Thanks for the discussion, I think I have repeated some of these points now, so instead of repeating them again, I will assume my point has been presented. Thanks again for the discussion. 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #17)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:36 PM
18. Be well.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #6)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:53 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
24. Yes it has!!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #3)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:16 PM
10. Slowly. Inch by inch. Step by step.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #10)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:45 PM
20. lol
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #10)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 11:16 PM
redstateblues (10,561 posts)
56. Wil E Coyote Hassin
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #1)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:53 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
23. The new MC poll must certainly be an enviable position for the other candidates
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #1)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:51 PM
55. Corn Pop Gate!! OMG. May he Rest In Peace ✌️
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 03:55 PM
2. Morning Consult Post Debate Poll : Early States
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to ritapria (Reply #2)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:02 PM
27. Yup Bernie is surging!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to ritapria (Reply #2)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:03 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
28. Wow! The early state polling looks even better for Biden. Thx for posting
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:02 PM
4. One thing that is noteworthy now is if you combine warren and sanders
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:06 PM
7. I don't read much into that
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Reply #7)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:25 PM
13. It's significant for delegate counts in the up coming primaries.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #13)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 08:47 PM
Demsrule86 (66,267 posts)
48. I really do consider that wishful thinking...I follow the polls closely...I see no fading from Biden
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:31 PM
OilemFirchen (6,942 posts)
16. If Sanders drops out, which, though unlikely, is the likeliest scenario...
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #16)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:42 PM
19. Sanders won't be dropping out unless something unforeseen happens
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #19)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:13 PM
OilemFirchen (6,942 posts)
31. Then it's useless to combine Warren and Sanders percentages for analysis.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #31)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:23 PM
37. Um, no... it's very significant in regards to delegate counts in the primaries
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Delegates will be won by candidates getting over 15% in a given primary.
So, Warren and Sanders total being greater that Biden's is HUGELY significant. It might mean that Biden won't be able to get a majority of the delegates and win the nomination outright.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #37)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:43 PM
OilemFirchen (6,942 posts)
40. I've tried to compose a response to this several times.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #40)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:48 PM
41. lol So you didn't know you need a majority of the delegates to win the nomination?
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If Biden, Sander, Warren and possibly others all stay in the race, those candidates getting over 15% in any given primary get delegates from that primary.
Right now, Biden, Warren and Sanders seem in position to do just that. If Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, that means Biden would not have the needed majority of delegates won to get the nomination out right. That seems pretty simple to understand.
A second ballot has not been needed to select a nominee in decades, but if Warren and Sanders combined get more delegates than Biden, one would be needed to select the nominee. again...
But, in my opinion, I think that Warren will end up getting the majority of the delegates and win the nomination out right. Time will tell.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #41)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:58 PM
OilemFirchen (6,942 posts)
42. What the hell are you talking about?
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #42)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 07:03 PM
43. A PLURALITY of the delegates does not win the nomination.
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You need an outright MAJORITY.
A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot. FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose. A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other.
Honestly, this is pretty simple stuff. THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to bluewater (Reply #43)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 07:16 PM
OilemFirchen (6,942 posts)
44. Still not making sense.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #44)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 07:43 PM
46. It is really simple, delegates continue voting until one candidate gets a majority.
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Let me highlight it for you:
A PLURALITY does not win the nomination. You need an outright MAJORITY.
A candidate could win a MAJORITY outright in the primaries, then they are said to win the nomination "on the first ballot" at the convention since only elected pledged delegates can vote on the first ballot. FAILING to get a MAJORITY on the first ballot means the convention goes to a SECOND ballot, where selected "super delegates", usually party officials, can also vote. Plus all the elected pledge delegates are then free to vote for any candidate they choose. A PLURALITY never wins the nomination, you must get a MAJORITY one way or the other. THIS is why it matters if Warren and Sanders COMBINED support translates into a number of delegates greater than Biden's. That STOPS BIDEN from getting a majority of pledged delegates, meaning Biden can not win on the first ballot at the convention. For example, delegates originally pledged to Sanders could decide to vote on subsequent ballots for Warren, possibly giving her the majority. After the first ballot, elected pledged delegates are not locked into their original candidate. On the second ballot, and any subsequent ballots, super delegates can vote along with all the original pledged delegates, who would then be free to vote for any candidate they choose. Balloting rounds continue until one candidate GETS A MAJORITY of delegates to vote for them. Pretty simple, right? But if this process still seems confusing, I would suggest that you contact your local Democratic Campaign office and ask if someone there could explain the nomination process in detail in person. 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to OilemFirchen (Reply #16)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:48 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
22. This.. you beat me to it!!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:47 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
21. It doesn't work that way. Here's a poll of second choices for voters and where that support goes
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #4)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 08:40 PM
Demsrule86 (66,267 posts)
47. I don't think the votes neccesarily will go to Warren if Sanders drops out and I don't think he
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:27 PM
14. I believe that within 4 wks Harris will be polling at 4% nt
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Kahuna7 (Reply #14)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:55 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
25. Luv the jif...she's classy and cool!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #25)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 04:59 PM
26. LOL! I'm expecting the incoming. I expect people to tell me...
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what I am not allowed to believe.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Kahuna7 (Reply #26)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:05 PM
Thekaspervote (29,623 posts)
29. Especially after yesterday.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #29)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:17 PM
32. What's sauce for the goose....
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Kahuna7 (Reply #14)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 11:18 PM
redstateblues (10,561 posts)
57. Surging
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:10 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
30. Additional info on AA community (per age group) & ideology breakdowns
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #30)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:18 PM
33. Thanks for Posting internals on Morning Consult Poll
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to ritapria (Reply #33)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 05:27 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
34. No problem
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #30)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:10 PM
35. Thank you for that. Despite attempts by some to overemphasize Biden's "gaffes"....
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the AA community knows Joe, and we ain't going nowhere.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #35)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:21 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
36. Good to hear, Tarheel Dem
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And the polls thus far prove your point. As well as proving that the Democratic Party is a lot larger than the screeching social media platforms and political pundits.
back.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #35)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 09:57 PM
49. We. Are. Not. Budging.
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #30)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:25 PM
JI7 (87,921 posts)
38. seems like Biden has gained among young AA
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to JI7 (Reply #38)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 06:37 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
39. Looks like it though . . .
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #30)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 07:38 PM
Cha (286,306 posts)
45. Thanks, Peggysue!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Cha (Reply #45)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:08 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
50. Most welcome, Cha
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Think breaking down the numbers gives us an idea of how these numbers are playing out across the board.
Looking good for Joe! 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #50)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:11 PM
Cha (286,306 posts)
51. Because.. Corn Pop!
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RIP
 
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Cha (Reply #51)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:27 PM
peggysue2 (9,847 posts)
53. Hahahaha!
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to peggysue2 (Reply #53)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:29 PM
Cha (286,306 posts)
54. Yeah, looking at you, Michael Harriot..
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And, whomever else tried t run with it.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 10:13 PM
52. Lesson: never race bait a legend with a great civil rights track record. nt
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If I were to vote in a presidential primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Otto Lidenbrock (Original post)
Tue Sep 17, 2019, 12:14 PM
58. ...
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
