NIX RCP No Cherry Picking: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)

[UncleNoel]

NIX RCP No Cherry Picking Polls: 538 National Polling Averages: Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)
Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

Let’s keep our perspective: You can’t just say HarrisX and Morning Consult are outliers and ignore them. Here there is no eliminating polls we don’t like but just as 538 posts them. There sampling includes a broader sampling of critical states (see recent polls for Ohio and PA).

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls. The sample means LV (likely voters), RV (registered voters), etc. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders

HarrisX (10/4-8)(C+)(LV): JB 36, EW 18, BS 15 (Biden +14)
Quinnipiac (10/4-7)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 29, BS 16 (Warren +3)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6)( (LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) JB 22, EW 26, BS 14.75 (Warren +4)

Averages (rounded): Biden 29, Warren 24, Sanders 15 (Biden +5)

I will update as new polls are released.

[UncleNoel]

1. RCP sometimes averages 4 polls, sometimes 5

Don't know why, but it skews the results. I have just followed what they do even though it gives Warren a boost. I will stick to averaging as they do (4 or 5).

Do we really want to ignore polls put up by 538?
,
It would be nice if we could weight the polls by their ratings, but I am not that great on statistical analysis.

[crazytown]

2. HarrisX produces a new "poll" every day

[bluewater]

4. Often, HArrisX averages MORE than 1 poll per day.

[UncleNoel]

5. Cherry Pick as you like....

I am just including all polls rated by 538 without picking and choosing.

[crazytown]

6. Then why not do something innovative

And produce an average of the last 8 or 10 polls?

Because HarrisX "polls" daily it is oversampled.

[bluewater]

7. You are Cherry Picking which HarrisX polls to LEAVE OUT!

lol

Seriously, isn't one HarrisX Poll as valid as another? Shouldn't you include ALL the HarrisX polls for the last week?

I mean, I think you might be under representing Biden's REAL lead, since all the daily HarrisX Polls have him in the 33-36% range now.

Aren't you undercounting Biden's support by ignoring so many HarrisX polls?

[UncleNoel]

9. I just jpost the latest and stick to only posting once for any pollster

Guess I could do them all, but I have time limits.

[bluewater]

12. So basically, its RCP + the daily HarrisX poll

An occasionally, a minor polling firm like a Civiqs or Binder Research poll.

Looking at the list of polls and how often they get released, the only thing that will be different in the vast majority of cases will be including the HarrisX polls.

Well, to each their own, I say!

Good luck and have fun! Look for my OWN personal online tracker that is not in anyway affiliated with 538 of LIVE CALLER polls... coming soon.

Have a nice evening.

[pnwmom]

17. HarrisX polls are rated as C+ by 538. So you are OVER-sampling from LESS accurate polls.

That makes a lot of sense.

[bluewater]

3. 15 HarrisX polls for the primary have been released already in October!

HarrisX is an online poll that surveys the preselected Harris panel of voters, they churn out polls at a tremendous rate.

Perhaps that is why RCP POLLS tracker only uses the Harris polls when they partner with the Wall Street Journal or Harvard, they release those polls about as often as the major pollsters do, basically every month or so.

Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov are also online polls, but they release only one primary poll a week.

So, these 3 online polls ALWAYS make it into the average poll trackers since they are released EVERY week at a minimum.

Better rated live caller polls like Quinnipiac are at a disadvantage in that regard and influence any average tracker less.

But, the polls are what the polls are.

What time frame will you be using to include polls in your personal tracker? How long will older polls be included? Will you always keep the last poll for a major pollster, or will those drop off?

Well, have fun, as long as people realize that this is your PERSONAL project and not issued by 538, it's an interesting idea.

In fact, I might look into posting my OWN personal homespun not affililated with 538 tracker of LIVE caller polls, leaving out the online polls that survey the same panel over and over and over...

Thanks for the idea!

[UncleNoel]

8. I am eliminating older polls according to the 4 or 5 RCP puts up

and putting up the ones 538 has for the last 4 or 5.

If we eliminate HarrisX, I get this.

Poll (Dates) (Rating ) (Sample): Joe Biden , Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders

Quinnipiac (10/4-7)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 29, BS 16 (Warren +3)
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6)( (LV): JB 33, EW 21, BS 19 (Biden +12)
IBD/TIPP (9/26-10/3)(A-)(RV): JB 26, EW 27, BS 10 (Warren +1)
YouGov (9/28-10/1)(B) (LV) JB 22, EW 26, BS 14.75 (Warren +4)
Monmouth 9/23-9)A+RV) JB 25, EW 28, BS 15

Averages (rounded): Biden 26.4, Warren 26.2, Sanders 15 (Biden +0.2) I did this on the run, hope I got the averages right!

But the Monmouth poll is pretty old.

[bluewater]

10. So basically its the same as RCP unless the uber active online HarrisX polls are used.

Ok...

That just basically duplicated the RCP POLLS result and they have a nice visual tracker.

But again, WHY are you discounting so many of the HarrisX Polls? They issue more than 1 a week. Isn't one HarrisX poll as valid as another?

Is it somehow unfair to include more HarrisX polls since they conduct so many compared to other polls?

If that is the case, isn't it unfair that weekly polls like Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov get included every week and monthly polls do not?

On what basis did you decide to ignore so many perfectly valid HarrisX polls then? Is there something wrong with them?

[Me.]

11. No LOnger Trust RCP

“RealClear Media Has a Secret Facebook Page to Push Far-Right Memes”

“The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears, The Daily Beast has learned.

Called “Conservative Country,” the Facebook page was founded in 2014 and now boasts nearly 800,000 followers for its mix of Donald Trump hagiography and ultra-conservative memes. One recent post showed a man training two assault rifles at a closed door with the caption “Just sitting here waiting on Beto.” Others wink at right-wing conspiracy theories about Barack Obama’s “ties to Islam” or the Clintons having their enemies killed, or portray Muslim members of Congress as terrorist infiltrators. The page is effusive with praise for Vladimir Putin, and one post portrays Russia as the last bastion of freedom in Europe.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes

[Thekaspervote]

14. Well well well...makes a lot of sense

Makes sense too why some posters comments here insist that RCP is the only pollster that is correct and all others are just to be ignored!

[Celerity]

13. including the outlier (and flawed) HarrisX and Morning Consult polls is and of itself

Last edited Wed Oct 9, 2019, 12:03 AM - Edit history (1)

cherry-picking. The same can be said for the reverse-biased Change Research. The first two have a large pro-Biden mod/con bias, and CR has a very strong anti-Biden bias.

All 3 are pretty much useless.

IF you plant your flag on HarrisX, then you are also endorsing a poll that shows Rump at 49% approval rating, which is 4 points higher than even the ultra-dodgy RW Rasmussen Reports shows.

They poll the same self-selected group (some of them rewarded for participation) daily and overweight for mods and cons.. The Morning Consult is another flawed (far too pro Biden) outlier, as is the too-pro Warren Change Research poll. HarrisX also has Rump at a 49% approval rate, higher than even the discredited Rasmussen Reports.

HarrisX : Trump approval climbs to highest level of 2019 amid impeachment inquiry

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/464072-trumps-approval-ticks-to-up-to-highest-level-since-december

President Trump’s approval ticked up to 49 percent — its highest mark this year, according to a new Hill-HarrisX survey released on Wednesday.

The figure marks a 2-point increase from a Sept. 11-12 poll, but a 2-point decrease from its previous peak of 51 percent in August 2018.

Trump's disapproval rating, meanwhile, dropped to 51 percent, which marks his lowest level so far this year.

snip


HarrisX is a large outlier overall (in both primary and POTUS aprroval polls). They skew too heavily to the mods and cons. They also poll the same people (who opted in) over and over, daily. Morning Consult does similar methodology.



https://scottrasmussen.com/methodology/

The field work for ScottRasmussen.com surveys is provided by HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys. The survey is conducted online within the United States on a daily basis among approximately 1,000 Registered Voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of Americans. Results are weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population, in accordance with the demographic results of the U.S. Census Current Population Survey. These weighting categories were defined by Scott Rasmussen. Not all HarrisX surveys include all of the parameters included in ScottRasmussen.com surveys.

The respondents opt in to take our surveys and some of them are rewarded for their participation.

Biden at 36% with an 18 point lead over the field is very much an outlier result. Morning Consult is the only other major poll that has him over 30% on a remotely consistent basis.






Also, this HarrisX had a wild swing from day to day in the last 2 days, with Biden's spread increasing by a highly unlikely 64% in ONE day.




This poll overall is as useful as the Change Research ones, which are just as bad in the anti-Biden bias.



And that CR poll is over a month old, so before Warren's true surge of the last couple weeks, I can but imagine what the next one will show (should be out very soon.) I will say the same thing (outlier) to Warren people who post that one too, as I am even-handed and try to be a fair arbiter.[/i


HarrisX/Havard Harris (same firm) and Morning Consult are clear outliers at national level, with flawed methodology.

clear trends that show this to be the case

[crazytown]

15. More informative than the other posts put together

likewise earlier replies indicating that Biden and Warren's lead over Trump is narrowing. Aprreciated

[Celerity]

16. yw, yw