Democratic Primaries

UncleNoel

(864 posts) Thu Oct 10, 2019, 09:53 PM Oct 2019

All-Poll-Averages (from 538 listing) Democratic Primary: Averages: JB 30, EW 24, BS 15 (UPDATED)

Last edited Fri Oct 11, 2019, 08:02 AM - Edit history (3)

All-Poll-Averages Democratic Primary: Averages (rounded): Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +6.6)

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/

RCP does not include all the polls listed by 538. This means their average does not include all the available data from legitimate polls as recognized by 538. The following averages are given according to the last five polls released with all polling taking place up to and including October. The polls include both online and live polls (only excluding duplicates, I.e., only the most recent HarrisX) and limited to October polls only. I have listed only those with double digits Sorry about that. Consult the link above for others (Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Booker, Yang, etc.)).

October Polls Only:

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/7-10 35 17 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8 32 22 17
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8 25 29 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7 26 29 16

Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.25, Sanders 15.25 (Biden +5.25 - Corrected)

If I did the last 6 as RCP did (but with the last six as in 538), the result is not much different. It would include polls that overlapped the end of September and the begining of Ocober,keeping it within the October range at any rate.

Morning Consult ( LV 9/30 - 10/6 33 21 19
IBD/TIPP VRV 9/26 - 10/3 26 27 10

Averages: Biden 29.5, Warren 24.16, Sanders 15 (Biden +5.34)

On my last post there was a lively discussion (mostly Warren supporters) about HarrisX and Morning Consult as online outiers. Given the results from FOX News they seem perfectly in line, but here all polls exclusive to October (the last five listed) with no prejudice against YouGov and Quinnipiac which show different results. Morning Consult and IBDF/TIPP both had initial dates in September and therefore not reflected here. So it is alliteratively balanced. Biden supporters can be encuraged by FOC and Warren supporters by YouGov and Quinnipiac, but it all levels out.

RCP with its selection of polls shows a slight uptick for Biden and a slighter downtick for Warren. There is also an uptick for Sanders.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden