The Poll Wars: To HarrisX or not to HarrisX

[UncleNoel]

I would like to see more Humor in the back and forth on polls for the upper tier candidates, Biden, Warren and Sanders. I am going to vote BLUE in the GE and I am fine with the co-front-runners Joe and Liz. Either would make a fantastic president thugh I am an unabashed Biden supporter. And Bernie makes Trump look like a fool.

So I am listing the All-Poll-Averages of those listed by 538 in two groups with a further average of all of them. Take your pick and have your say. We have great candidates and I love the enthusiasm of their supporters -- Vote blue to take our government back...

I. Good News Biden

HarrisX (C+) LV 10/8-11: JB 36, EW 16, BS 14
FOX News (A) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 32, EW 22, BS 17
Morning Consult (9/30-10/6: JB 33, EW 21, BS 19
Rounded Averages: Biden 34, Warren 20, Sanders 17 (Biden +14)

II. Good News Warren

YouGov Blue/
Data for Progress LV: 9/23-10/: JB 23, EW 36, BS 15
YouGov (B) LV 10/6 - 8: JB 25, EW 29, BS 14
Quinnipiac (A-) RV 10/4 - 7: JB 26, EW 29, BS 16
Rounded Averages: Biden 25, Warren 31, Sanders 15 (Warren +6)

All-Poll-Averages: Biden 30, Warren 26, Sanders 16 (Biden +4)

Biden holding steady overall, Warren rising, Sanders static

[crazytown]

1. HarrisX - conducted by Scott Rasmussen, owned by Mark Penn

corrupt political apparatchiks. Why would you trust the polls of degenerate hacks?

Link to tweet

[UncleNoel]

2. I did not select anything

I do all polls put up by 538 and make no decisions on my own. IMO this poll is in line with that of FOX and Morning Consult.
If we eliminate HarriX we get

Biden 32.5 Warren 21.5, Sanders 18

and the overall averages are

Biden 29, Warren 26, Sanders 17

Biden +3 instead of Biden +4

Not much difference.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Thank you! I agree with you! Wish there was more levity in posters comments, but....

Your format was very fair and well laid out.

If 538 lays it out...is considered the gold standard and grades the poll, then who am I to question it.

Your efforts are appreciated

[UncleNoel]

4. Thanks. BTW the RCP Average kinda cheats

Sometimes they post averages for 4, 5, or even as now 6 polls. This is one way to manipulate the average unless I don't understand something.

RCP now has:

Biden 27.8
Warren 26
Sanders 15.2

Because they are keeping two older polls, both of which are of the II variety (IBD/TIPP, Monmouth).

[HeartlandProgressive]

7. RCP is just using a time window. It appears to be about 2 weeks.

Polls older than that are dropped off. Only the latest poll from a given pollster in that time window is included in their simple average.

The "oldest" poll they are currently using has a closing date of 9/29, that's within their normal time window.

This is readily apparent by looking at the expanded list of polls on RCP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

[HeartlandProgressive]

5. This is not done by 538 at all

The Op poster is just picking a few recent polls from a list on 538 and averaging them their self.

This is not the aggregate tracker that 538 does, that is not available yet. What 538 does is more more involved.

[ritapria]

6. I appreciate your efforts

But you count 2 polls conducted by the same outfit, YouGuv ….

[OKNancy]

8. FWIW the Yougov data for progress poll is a sponsored poll by

https://www.dataforprogress.org/

Go to the site to see their outlook.

[DrFunkenstein]

9. 30% Means 70% Are Not There

No matter who you support, there's a whole lot to sort out.