Why is Biden's popularity so high but his fundraising lagging?

[pnwmom]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-entered-fourth-quarter-with-significantly-less-money-than-his-top-competitors-filings-show/2019/10/16/4fcb8f40-ef85-11e9-8693-f487e46784aa_story.html

Former vice president Joe Biden’s presidential campaign struggled to gain financial steam in the past three months — spending money at a faster clip and having a smaller campaign war chest than his top competitors, according to new filings released Tuesday night.

The former vice president entered the final quarter of 2019 with significantly less cash on hand than other candidates who are leading in polls or fundraising. And his share of low-dollar donations — which can signal enthusiasm for his candidacy — was significantly lower.

Biden’s lackluster finances were revealed amid growing concerns among some of his allies that his campaign is not equipped for the onslaught of attacks by President Trump. Trump and the Republican Party have already launched a $10 million ad blitz, largely aimed at Biden over his son’s business ties to Ukraine.


Meanwhile, Trump’s ballooning reelection campaign shattered fundraising records in the third quarter, and his campaign continued to pull a steady stream of money from donors giving less than $200, new filings show.

SNIP

[cwydro]

1. Not a good sign.

[empedocles]

2. Name of the game. Put a tag on Biden. God forbid if someone should see his shoelace untied.

[janterry]

3. maybe his popularity isn't that high

name recognition goes a long way in these early months

[Otto Lidenbrock]

4. He's been in for six months and four debates

People have been discussing his downfall from the start citing name recognition as his asset. It's arrogant at this point.

[BeyondGeography]

6. He was basically ignored by our candidates last night

Seems like they believe in his downfall as well.

[Otto Lidenbrock]

7. Or maybe the first three debates backfired going after him

They decided to change plan?

[Cha]

9. Snap.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Biden never faced more than a fraction of what Warren did last night

Why do you think that is?

[peggysue2]

24. You must be kidding!

The spears have been out for Biden for months, one thing after another. Last night was the first time Warren's feet were held to the fire. And she blinked, became irritated and sanctimonious. Amy K nailed her on that 'my way or the highway' tone and Pete B pointed out the elephant in the room--healthcare. Elizabeth Warren has a plan for everything but has deferred to Bernie Sanders on Medicare for All and is unwilling to talk about the problematic implementation and funding issues. None of which is the public's first choice for healthcare (despite all the screaming). Warren will be under continued scrutiny just like Biden has been.

Welcome to the primary!

[BeyondGeography]

25. In a single debate?

No.

[highplainsdem]

12. Attacks on Biden backfired in earlier debates. Warren looked like an easier target.

[BeyondGeography]

13. Any gains by the moderates attacking her will be at his expense

But you probably realize that.

[highplainsdem]

15. I don't think so. But we'll see. I won't be surprised to see Warren slip in the polls after

Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2019, 09:21 AM - Edit history (1)

last night.

I'd guess, and some pollsters have confirmed, that at least some of her rise the last couple of months has come from former Harris supporters. I noticed in polls months ago that both Warren and Harris were getting a pretty large fraction of their support (think it was a third or more) from people who want a female candidate (while people supporting male candidates were much less likely to say the candidate's gender was a factor). IOW their gender is helping rather than hurting them in the race. I'd guess some of those people switched to Warren as Harris declined in the polls, but last night Klobuchar was the one who really dominated the stage.

Klobuchar's confidence and strength remind me a lot of Hillary Clinton's.

I don't see the same strength in Warren.

I'm impressed by Warren's IQ and by her debating ability, but I have a very hard time envisioning her as POTUS. I had no such problems envisioning HRC as president.

[thesquanderer]

21. Lots of people don't pay much attention this early. I would guess...

Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2019, 10:33 PM - Edit history (1)

...that the vast majority of voters have not yet watched a single debate.

Name recognition is still a real factor. Please see my post #20.

[Cha]

8. It was never name recognition.. voters

were actually aware of who Joe Biden is beyond his name.

That's a meme by those supporting other candidates.

[Hortensis]

19. Yes. Biden's been a national figure since 1973. :) Most Americans

literally grew up with his name and face on the TV while they waited for the news to end and family-rated sitcoms to begin. Teachers expected them to know about him in middle and high school. They later came to read about him in newspapers and magazines, and then the internet, and of course watch him on TV news programs, as their parents and grandparents do.

[thesquanderer]

20. Name recognition doesn't mean that's all they know of Biden.It means NOT recognizing the OTHER names

Based on latest Morning Consult poll, only 9% of Dem voters haven't heard of Biden or don't know him well enough to have an opinion. Similar to the 7% for Sanders. But that goes up to 19% for Warren; 27% for Harris; between 36% and 47% for Beto, Buttigieg, Booker, Castro, Yang; and over 50% for everyone else.

When asked in a poll who you would vote for if the election were today, you're not going to answer with anyone you have not heard of or don't know enough about to have an opinion about. This name recognition factor means that all the polls inherently favor Biden and Sanders, and to a lesser extent Warren, over everybody else.

That's Bidens' "name recognition" advantage, and it is significant. It does not necessarily mean that people know Biden's name and nothing else about him.

[OKNancy]

5. Just a guess, but the fundraising leaders are getting donations from

college educated whites, and people with higher incomes.
Joe's biggest supporters are lower income folks who don't have the disposable income to donate as much.

[highplainsdem]

16. I'd say that's a pretty good guess.

[emulatorloo]

32. Sounds right to me.

[BlueWI]

37. Actually, Sanders has an excellent record of donations

from non-college educated voters.

[TCJ70]

10. I think that's a reflection of the "enthusiasm gap". N/t

[snowybirdie]

14. The campaign is way too long

Average people are constantly urged to give and give to their candidate for years! I'm so tired of the multitude of funding requests popping up on my internet daily. Enough! Reached the point where no candidate is getting my money. I can't afford it and my funds are required for my daily living. The whole process is out of control.

[Hortensis]

17. I'm guessing part of it is that people expect someone as connected

and well known as Biden to have plenty of donors. Money problems are for unknowns, not statesmen. And small donors don't give their precious money to candidates they don't think really need it.

Donations may pick up as word gets out, but he IS very well connected and may end up having to accept more large donations.

Good news, of course, is that, courtesy of the internet, expectations for small-donor financing of Democratic campaigns have grown remarkably in a very short time. Democratic presidential campaigns financed predominantly by large donors are suddenly no longer the norm and are avoided.

We progress. (Even if Republicans do not.)

[highplainsdem]

18. Another good guess.

[elleng]

35. Good guess, imo.

[Baclava]

22. On-line polls/popularity don't automatically mean monetary support, they SAY they will vote for u

But to actually hand over money means something more

[polichick]

23. Because a poll can show whatever the pollsters want...

Biden is popular among those who profit from the status quo - not with the grassroots, who understand that tweaking won’t cut it this time.

[emulatorloo]

30. Biden's popular with people who aren't college educated. And African American women, who are

our base. Those supporters are hardly “benefiting” from the “status quo”

[polichick]

31. Actually, that's only what the polls show - which, like I said,

will show whatever they are designed to show.

Edit: Those paying for the polls profit from the status quo.

[emulatorloo]

33. Got it. The polls are only 'correct' if they say what you want them to say.

[polichick]

34. I added an edit while you were responding.

[polichick]

36. Just to be clear, I don't doubt that the groups you mentioned...

support Biden - but do suspect that pollsters (paid by supporters of the status quo) over sample those groups in order to make Biden look more popular than he is.

(I had a friend who was a pollster with one of the biggest firms, and teased him about going to jail for misleading the public because of the shady way polls are often designed.)

[Omen78]

26. I'm sad to say that I'm at the point,

Where I don't see Biden pulling it off.

[LAS14]

27. I don't think his popularity is "high." I just think people think..

... he's the safest bet. He's not inspiring enthusiasm, so people don't give money.

[OldRed2450]

28. I'm super excited for Biden.

If warren wins the nomination, I will plug my nose and vote for her but I would definitely be plugging my nose.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

29. Name recognition versus enthusiasm gap.

People not paying attention pick the name they know. People making donations at this point are paying attention to the issues and the history of previous Presidential runs.