New B+ rated Iowa poll, Warren & Biden (23) tied, Pete (16) passes Bernie (13) for 3rd, Yang (5) 5th

[Celerity]

Last edited Thu Oct 17, 2019, 03:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Bullock (4) in 6th, followed by Booker in 7th (3), then Steyer, Gabbard and Harris tied at (2). Klobuchar, Williamson, and Bennet at (1) and Castro and Beto and the rest at zero. Someone else is at (4).


https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides

Iowa 2020: Dead heat with Biden and Warren, Mayor Pete continues to build and Sanders slides

In the first caucus state of the 2020 presidential election, the Democrat Primary field has shifted since the last Emerson poll in March. Former V.P. Joe Biden is now tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for the lead 23% each, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Sen. Bernie Sanders dropping to fourth at 13%. No other candidate reaches above 5%. (n=317, +/-5.5%, MM, Oct 13-16, 2019)

According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “The good news for Biden is he did not lose much ground since March’s poll that had him at 25% of the vote. It appears that Warren has been the beneficiary of Sanders’s drop from 24% to 13%; Mayor Pete appears to have solidified his base in Iowa, going from 0% in February, to 11% in March, and now 16% in the Hawkeye state.”

Warren has also overtaken Sanders among voters under the age of 50. 21% of those under 50 support Warren followed by Sanders at 18%. Biden continues to lead with those over 50 - receiving 33% support from this cohort, followed by Warren at 24%.

Warren also now leads Sanders among those who supported the Vermont Senator in the 2016 caucus; Warren has 26% among this group, followed by Sanders at 19%, and Buttigieg at 16%. Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 caucus, Biden captures 42%, followed by Warren at 22% and Buttigieg at 13%.

The Iowa Emerson College poll was conducted October 13-16, 2019 under the Supervision of Emerson Polling Director and Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=888, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

[Iliyah]

1. Hey Pete!

One of my favorites!

[Celerity]

4. it's only one poll, so not going to bounce off the wall, but it is better than a kick in the jacobs

(IF I even had them, which I do not! LOLOL)

[Funtatlaguy]

8. I never heard of Jacobs. But, according to you, I have 2.

[Celerity]

16. it's Brit slang (I am London raised) for, well you seemed to have figured it out, lol

[Funtatlaguy]

17. Aw. Kind of like tea and crumpets or jimmies.

[Celerity]

18. well tea and also crumpets are not slang

I much prefer a Devon tea with scones, clotted cream,and strawberry jam, instead of crumpets, and tbf, we (my wife and I) do not even do it (afternoon tea) much. We are more coffee drinkers anyway, lolol

[Funtatlaguy]

19. Clotted cream sounds too much like bukkake. Nothanx. 🤢

[Celerity]

22. It is actually so jummmi!

[BootinUp]

2. Veddy Interesssting. Nt

[Chemisse]

3. It's great to see Mayor Pete rise in the polls. n/t

[Frances]

5. I have learned that it's better for me

to wait until I have seen and heard all the candidates for at least several months before making a final choice

For example, I thought John Edwards was a great candidate when he ran for president Turned out I was wrong.

The poll was done October 13-16, so the last debate isn’t fully reflected in this poll.
I wonder if the debate will cause any changes in the next poll

[Celerity]

6. agreed, the big ones will be the completely post debate ones

[ritapria]

7. 571 registred voters (landline only) 317 registered voters online panel

No voters contacted by Cellphone ... Buyer Beware …..For confirmation go to " Latest Polls 538" and click Emerson College .....Info contained at the very end

[Celerity]

13. I put the information and the link (from 538) in the OP nt

[Funtatlaguy]

9. Harris at 2% baffles me.

[bluewater]

10. Buttigieg can win Iowa

He's well liked for his positions and character and his ground game there is very well financed.

[FloridaBlues]

11. I thought Warren was ahead in Iowa polls? Good news for Biden

[CaliforniaPeggy]

12. Very good news for Pete Buttigieg in Iowa!

He's been working very hard there, with lots of field offices and people staffing them.

Looks like it's paying off.

[Celerity]

14. +10000

Yes, let's hope this holds up my dear Peggy! It is still early days, and it is only one poll.

[book_worm]

15. The only real surprise for me is Mayor Pete

If he comes in the top three he will have something to crow about. If he manages to come in second that would be really big.

[bullwinkle428]

20. To paraphrase the most memorable line from "Dumb and Dumber"...

"SO YOU'RE SAYING THAT PETE HAS A CHANCE?"

And as an Iowa resident, I sincerely believe the answer is "YES"!

[Capt. America]

21. If he wins, places, or shows Iowa he can punch his ticket to NH.

[floppyboo]

23. In a match up with Trump, Bernie is the only winner. Same poll

I haven't gone into the weeds but indies and soft rep? Could it be, gasp, that Bernie appeals to the center?

[Celerity]

24. Not sure, but I do think that Sanders would have a better chance of winning

some of the Midwest states against Rump than Warren would. It is elsewhere he (and her) would be in more trouble than Biden would.