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Undecided 38%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Kamala Harris8%

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 06:57 AM

 

Buttigieg closes on Biden, Warren in Iowa: poll

Last edited Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:59 AM - Edit history (1)

Buttigieg closes on Biden, Warren in Iowa: poll
By Rebecca Klar - 10/21/19 07:32 AM EDT


Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg now stands at third place in Iowa, according to a new poll, closely trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in the early caucus state.

Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Ind., has the support of 13 percent of 500 likely Democratic caucus goers, based on a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday.

That places him just behind Biden and Warren, who are in dead-heat for first place at 18 and 17 percent, respectively.



The poll also found that Buttigieg holds a narrow lead over Warren and Biden among debate-watchers, with 19 percent support compared to 17 percent for each of them, according to the poll.

The new poll shows a big jump for Buttigieg, who was polling at just 6 percent among likely caucus goers in a June poll. Warren also shot up 4 points from 13 percent since June.


more...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466670-buttigieg-closes-on-biden-warren-in-iowa-poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Buttigieg closes on Biden, Warren in Iowa: poll (Original post)
babylonsister Oct 21 OP
redqueen Oct 21 #1
babylonsister Oct 21 #3
crazytown Oct 21 #7
Funtatlaguy Oct 21 #10
redqueen Oct 21 #25
patricia92243 Oct 21 #2
FreeState Oct 21 #39
cwydro Oct 21 #4
AllyCat Oct 21 #17
cwydro Oct 21 #21
AllyCat Oct 21 #24
Piiolo Oct 21 #5
gopiscrap Oct 23 #41
crazytown Oct 21 #6
customerserviceguy Oct 21 #32
crazytown Oct 21 #37
customerserviceguy Oct 21 #38
still_one Oct 21 #8
FBaggins Oct 21 #9
mopinko Oct 21 #12
FBaggins Oct 21 #13
mopinko Oct 21 #15
FBaggins Oct 21 #26
Ligyron Oct 21 #11
Celerity Oct 21 #14
AllyCat Oct 21 #16
crazytown Oct 21 #18
Piiolo Oct 21 #19
Celerity Oct 21 #20
George II Oct 21 #22
FBaggins Oct 21 #30
George II Oct 21 #33
FBaggins Oct 21 #35
George II Oct 21 #36
TidalWave46 Oct 21 #23
efhmc Oct 21 #27
MineralMan Oct 21 #28
Joe941 Oct 21 #29
George II Oct 21 #34
LanternWaste Oct 23 #43
AkFemDem Oct 21 #31
maximusveritas Oct 21 #40
Gothmog Oct 23 #42

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:10 AM

1. If anyone finds a link to the poll results pleased share.

 

Looked for iif but didn't find one.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Andrew Yang

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Response to redqueen (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:35 AM

3. The poll is in this link

 

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Response to babylonsister (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:57 AM

7. No lift for Klobuchar

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:11 AM

10. Yep, Minnesota neighbor meme not paying off.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to babylonsister (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:32 AM

25. I'm looking for the full details, not the summary. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Andrew Yang

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:29 AM

2. If he wins third place in Iowa, he will be considered a serious candidate and the

 

money, attention, and criticism will flow in.

I think he will make a great president, and it will be fun watching the Trumpters head explode about having a first gentleman.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to patricia92243 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 03:06 PM

39. He's already getting the money

 

His strategy so far has been paying off, he is running a very fine campaign - hopefully indicative of how he will run the country when he becomes President Pete!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:47 AM

4. But...but...I read it right here on DU that he's "too short."

 

How can he possibly be gaining in the polls?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to cwydro (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:02 AM

17. ????

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to AllyCat (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:15 AM

21. Someone said he couldn't win because he was too short.

 

Saying (incorrectly) that only tall people win.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to cwydro (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:25 AM

24. Grrrr....really? That's what we have against our great candidates

 

(Mostly great). Not sorry I missed that one. Bizarre things people post, eh?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:54 AM

5. Horrible poll for Sanders

 

In fourth place.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Julian Castro

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Response to Piiolo (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 23, 2019, 02:18 AM

41. welcome to DU

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:54 AM

6. Pete is putting in a lot of work on the ground in Iowa

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:59 AM

32. The money he's raised

 

is being put to good use. I've not seen anything for him in South Carolina, perhaps he's bypassed this state, and I have to agree with the wisdom of that decision.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to customerserviceguy (Reply #32)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:21 AM

37. Here's another graphic: 2 in SC

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to crazytown (Reply #37)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:41 AM

38. Pete will get some votes

 

in Charleston and Columbia, but the rest of the Democratic vote in rural SC is mostly made up mainly of evangelicals who attend churches that are still somewhat homophobic. It makes no sense to spend money here that could be devoted to friendlier Super Tuesday states outside the South.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 07:58 AM

8. I have very little faith in the caucus

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:02 AM

9. Further increasing the risk of a brokered convention

 

Iowa could easily end up splitting its delegates four ways. If Buttigieg actually outdraws one or more of the current top three, NH/NV/SC could easily go from the current 3-way split (with no one candidate earning significantly more delegates than the others) to 4-way.

Which could make the March 3rd primaries messy. No reason to think that TX and CA will rank candidates the same way. We could easily get to mid-March with no clear frontrunner and nobody with a path to a majority.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:46 AM

12. meh. delegates can be released.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to mopinko (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:53 AM

13. And which candidate do you see doing that?

 

More importantly... isn't that what a brokered convention is?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:56 AM

15. no idea really, but i would suspect that biden, if he came in second or worse,

 

would hand his to the front runner. done.
sanders could do the same, but yeah...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to mopinko (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:39 AM

26. Right now I think it's more complicated than that

 

What about the second-place candidate who knows that he/she has many more superdelegates that will suddenly count on the second ballot? Do they think of themselves as the frontrunner?

What if Biden has 45% of the delegates to Warren's 40%. Does Sanders hand his to the frontrunner or to the candidate who is closer to him on the issues? Even more complicating... do released Sanders delegates vote as he wants them to or do they use their own judgment?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:32 AM

11. That was because he finally got some exposure.

 

Most Dems and almost none of the general population even knew who he was until the debates. The fact that he was in the military would be a big plus with most citizens and make it hard for the RW to paint him as a wimp and he can hold his own in any debate. I'd be happy with any of our fantastic candidates except Tulsi G. even a mod like Joe. Get a Dem Congress in there to work with and I think Joe would start heading left big time.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:54 AM

14. great poll for Pete, let's hope he continues his rise, glad to see Biden still doing well too

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:00 AM

16. I support Pete, but am happy we have so many candidates I can easily

 

Support in the GE. What a great group of people!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:05 AM

18. A strong second finish in IA does not tip the contest (necessarily)

 

Think Johnny Edwards. The headline was Kerry / Dean third.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:06 AM

19. He will do good where black voters are few

 

Iowa for example.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Julian Castro

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:08 AM

20. more numbers on the debate, big winners, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, big loser, Biden

 

Beto was the only other 'worse than expected' performer in double digits, percentage-wise, besides Biden.




I would like to see more polls on the debate to see how this one holds up
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:20 AM

22. Still a way to go and lots of "undecided" but at this rate only Biden and Warren will get delegates.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:53 AM

30. I disagree

 

I think at this rate, four of them will get delegates... because the other two are so close to the viability threshold and there are so many undecideds - combined with the fact that the viability is at the precinct level. I think it's unlikely that Sanders/Buttidieg will be below 15% in all of them.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:04 AM

33. There may be a few delegates awarded based on District results, but not many at all, if any.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to George II (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:13 AM

35. But this poll shows Biden/Warren with barely over 15% themselves

 

I don't see any reason to believe that they would get most of the undecideds - in fact, it usually works the other way around.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #35)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:16 AM

36. Correct, that's why I said that it's early, lots of "undecideds", and "at this rate"...

 

We know that will change, but as of today only Biden and Warren will qualify for delegates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:21 AM

23. Go Buttigieg! NT

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:40 AM

27. I predict that Biden will win this primary. Wrote it down so I can correct myself

 

later if wrong or say "I told you so."
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:43 AM

28. The Undecideds overwhelm all of the individual results.

 

That sort of makes the rest irrelevant. It's too early to start guessing how Iowa will look following its caucuses. And, don't forget the 15% rule. That will definitely come into play in Iowa.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:48 AM

29. Are you saying national polls arent how we elect our candidate?

 

National polls seem to be all anyone talks about.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to Joe941 (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 10:11 AM

34. Not really. I see people talking about individual state results all the time. I know I have...

 

I posted something about this over the weekend - details of all the early states (through Super Tuesday) where credible polls are available.

Based on poll results from these states - ME, NH, VT, MA, VA, NC, SC,OK, TX,IA, CO, NV, and CA, the delegates earned will be:

Biden - 617
Warren - 370
Sanders - 281

This does not account for a few delegates where delegates are earned, but this is a good "ballpark" estimate.

Early states that don't have credible polls yet and are not included here are AL, TN, AR, MN, and UT.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Joe941 (Reply #29)

Wed Oct 23, 2019, 09:25 AM

43. No surprise that you're the only making that argument

 

and handing it off to "many people say..." to better avoid the responsibility of making it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:58 AM

31. So exciting!!!! I just feel an excitement around him that's reminiscent...

 

Of the days when we “discovered” Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

There’s something really magical about a non-heir-apparent swooping in and winning the hearts and minds of the voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to AkFemDem (Reply #31)

Mon Oct 21, 2019, 09:23 PM

40. That's what he's trying to tap into

 

I thought he almost blew it with the way he stumbled early with the police controversy, but he seems to be finding his comfort zone positioning himself as the younger and more progressive alternative to Biden but more of a realist than the Sanders/Warren/Harris wing.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Wed Oct 23, 2019, 09:13 AM

42. Accoding to Nate-only scant evidence for a Buttigieg surge.

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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