If you are in the Beto/Castro/Booker/Klobuchar part of the pack, do you stay thru SC or fold sooner?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

Amy Klobuchar has had good debate moments, and is looking for a good showing in Iowa (a neighboring state)

Booker hasn't seemed to connect.

Castro and O'Rourke are both struggling, and I can't help but think one or both might be better served running for Senate in Texas.

Is it worth staying, or is the cake baked with Biden/Warren/Sanders/Harris/ & Mayor Pete?

[ritapria]

1. I believe the cake is baked

The nominee will come from the top 5 in National Polling ...We all know it .. Biden has the best chance or winning ….About 40%... Warren is a close second : 35% chance of winning ..Bernie has around a 10% chance of getting the nod ……. Buttigieg 7% ..Kamala 5%.... Amy Klobuchar 3% …. The rest of the field are running vanity campaigns ….I am will amend that : Yang is bringing up the important issue of the threat posed by automation ……………Props to him …….... The rest of the candidates refuse to see the writing on the wall...…..I feel bad putting Cory Booker and Beto in the "no hope" category … They deserved better from the voters ….But, it is what it is …..We don't need anymore than 7 candidates on the next debate stage …..

[Celerity]

4. put Biden at 50% and I am very close to your numbers. He appears to be teflon so far, and Warren has

has peaked, at least for now, at this exact point in time, based off multiple polls coming in now, legit polls I actually trust.

Obviously a LONG way to go, but the nomination is Biden's to lose atm, IMHO, barring some huge event (which is deffo possible, just not probable.) Warren needs to sort herself over MFA, it is her largest systemic Achilles heel from several levels.

[Turin_C3PO]

10. I personally

think Warren should just straight up “pivot” from MFA to a public option instead. I think it’s the only way she wins the nomination. I like Warren a lot but MFA, unfortunately, isn’t feasible in this country, at this time.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

14. I could see Yang with a role in the next Dem administration

I'm not sure if it would be a traditional cabinet post (Commerce), an ad hoc post (Tech Czar), or a less formal advisory role. But you are right - his observations about automation and the 4th industrial revolution should not be dismissed.

[vsrazdem]

2. Most of them won't have the money to stay in, it's unfortunate, but that's the name of the game.

They will need money to spend on advertising and digital ads, and there will only be 4 or 5 that will be able to hold out for any length of time.

[sacto95834]

9. Unfortunately....$$ will weed out the field.

Once a candidate is out of campaign funds and isn't raising it fast enough, they won't be able to get their message out (free internet does help - but it only reaches a certain demographic). Advertising, especially TeeVee, will probably always be necessary as well as mailings - all very expensive.

I hope of the 20 or so candidates at least 1/2 make it to Iowa and hopefully New Hampshire. Then I think the field will really thin out. I suspect that the three top candidates: Biden, Warren and Sanders will continue on. If one of the other candidates catch fire in Iowa or New Hampshire and places well, they might be able to raise funds and make it to maybe Super Tuesday. I don't expect more than 3 or 4 to compete after that. Purely my speculation as to who can catch fire in Iowa/New Hampshire: Mayor Pete, Yang or the real Dark Horse Castro.

I don't think the others can last. I was hoping my Senator Kamala Harris could make it to California - but she isn't polling well here, which I find odd as she won her Senate seat quite easily; nor is she polling well in the early states, so I have very little hope for her.

I feel especially bad for Booker and O'Rourke - two of the most charismatic candidates, but they just never really connected with the national audience. Maybe O'Rourke will reconsider a senate run in Texas and Bullock will make a race in Montana and help the Dems regain the Senate.

[Sherman A1]

3. It is way, way too early

and traditionally the early front runner(s) do not fair well in the process.

[Skya Rhen]

6. Just barely over 3 months.

[Sherman A1]

7. See post #5

Time will tell and things will all shake out when they do so.

[Andy823]

12. Exactly

I get so tired of all the new posters coming on DU and making claims about who "has it locked up" or who doesn't stand a chance. It's way to early to make "predictions" one way or another.

The only sure thing is we have some great candidates running, and like Biden said when asked who else besides him could beat trump, they all can!" Joe is right they all "can" beat him, and when the "people" vote, and we actually have a "nominee", the nominee will get the support of every person in this country who is sick and tired of trump and his lawless administration, and that will be the end of trump. Of course he could be removed from office, or resign and in that case our nominee will still win.

The one thing I know for sure is I will be supporting the nominee, whoever that will be.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

15. Just over 100 days to Iowa

New Hampshire is the following week.

Conventional wisdom would have suggested that a younger Dem (traditionally, younger Dems do well - JFK, Carter, Bill Clinton, Obama) like Harris, O'Rourke, or Booker would be leading the field. That hasn't come to pass.

To me, if there is a wild card, it's Mayor Pete. Young, incredibly well-spoken, and a vet. Currently, he polls pretty well in Iowa. However, if he emerges, we will need to brace for -- I can't think of a word negative enough - a disgusting/despicable homophobic smear campaign on several fronts (largely driven by winger social media) and (more relevant) having to sell voters on the leap from Mayor of a relatively small Midwestern city to President.

[Sherman A1]

16. Yes, it is about a 100 days

and it is still way too early.

[RLG]

18. What will be a deterrent for him is his lack of African American support.

Yes, I know about his Douglass Plan, but since he never incorporated it in South Bend, it seems like a Johnny come lately plan.

[Joe941]

5. Too early to tell. We haven't even started voting yet...

[left-of-center2012]

8. I keep wondering why ...

I keep wondering why O'Rourke is campaigning in Alabama.

Is he thinking a win there will catapult him to the nomination?

[liskddksil]

11. Because Beto's campaign is about writing no-one off and taking no-one for granted

just as he did in Texas when visited every one of Texas's counties. We're not going to win votes unless we show up and ask for them.

[Tarc]

13. Biden, Warren, Sanders

Sorry, but everyone below that needs to pack it in soon.

[Sherman A1]

17. I disagree

Traditionally the early front runners do not end up as the nominee.