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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 05:55 AM

 

Brand new Iowa State University Iowa poll: Warren 28, Pete 20, Sanders 18, Biden 12, Klobuchar 4

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_10.pdf







margin of error of 5.0% at the 95% confidence level
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Brand new Iowa State University Iowa poll: Warren 28, Pete 20, Sanders 18, Biden 12, Klobuchar 4 (Original post)
Celerity Oct 2019 OP
bearsfootball516 Oct 2019 #1
True Blue American Oct 2019 #3
Celerity Oct 2019 #4
BeyondGeography Oct 2019 #2
True Blue American Oct 2019 #5
Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #6
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2019 #9
Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #10
Celerity Oct 2019 #16
Celerity Oct 2019 #13
crazytown Oct 2019 #7
Fiendish Thingy Oct 2019 #8
crazytown Oct 2019 #11
boomer_wv Oct 2019 #12
Demsrule86 Oct 2019 #14
Celerity Oct 2019 #17
crazytown Oct 2019 #15
BeyondGeography Oct 2019 #18
Celerity Oct 2019 #19
crazytown Oct 2019 #21
crazytown Oct 2019 #20

Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 05:57 AM

1. I do believe in Warren and Buttigieg's surges

 

But I'd find it hard to see Biden finishing 4th in Iowa with how well he's polled there for months.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 06:03 AM

3. In other polls Biden surged to 34%.

 

Most people interviewed say they just want it to be over. They want normal and calming. Make of that what you wish.

The only ones who do not are radical Republican or die types.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 06:07 AM

4. I am also waiting for the gold standard, the Des Moines Register A+ poll

 

It should be coming out soon, the last one was 5 weeks ago.

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/07/top2_ia_saturday.pdf





If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 06:03 AM

2. Interesting

 

Multiple polls now showing Pete looking for real in IA. Klobuchar not so much.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 06:08 AM

5. I have not settled because

 

I have no idea what will happen in 12 months.

But Biden/ Warren gives me a good feeling. I would like to see Pete as SOD. I think that would fit perfectly for him to then take over. I really admire his immense knowledge.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:28 AM

6. Oh Please...did you read their methods...someone has their finger on the scale...a Warren

 

supporter trying to get her real momentum. Read about their method particularly about how they got the sample ...it was invitation only...

"This report contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 598 likely Democratic Caucus attendees in Iowa from
October 18-22, 2019. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research
panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at
civiqs.com.
Likely Democratic Caucus attendees are respondents who answered that they would "Definitely" or
"Probably" attend the Iowa Democratic Caucuses scheduled for February 2020, in question 1, and who
identified themselves as Democrats or Independents on a previous Civiqs survey.
The order of the candidate trait questions was rotated across six versions of the questionnaire. Respondents
were randomly asked about a different candidate first, on each of the six versions.
The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, party identification, and congressional
district to be representative of the population of likely Iowa Democratic Caucus attendees. Demographic
data, including self-reported party identification, was collected in previous Civiqs surveys. The general
design effect due to weighting is 1.57. The survey has a margin of error of 5.0% at the 95% confidence level,
accounting for the design effect. All survey results in this report are reported as percentages."

The polls are the polls...but now with this sort of thing. Proving a what some believe is a truth with a falsehood...never understood that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:40 AM

9. I don't see the part where the poll was weighted in Warren's favor

 

Many polls posted here, especially "rolling average" polls, draw from the same samples of "research panel" members as this Civiqs poll.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:45 AM

10. did you read about how it was weighed...I am telling you this is a small sample size

 

cherry picked poll.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:02 AM

16. lololol, keep on trying, because your false framing that it is a Warren supporter finger on the

 

scale poll is a fail, and makes you look silly.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287322626#post13
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:59 AM

13. legit online polls are done via emails, its not a Drudge style, mash it till you ring up 200 votes

 

free for all'. Basic standard methodology is what you are trying to frame as 'invitation only' and falsely cast in a negative light.

The A rated online polls also send emails from their sample group, as does the hallowed (by Biden supporters) HarrisX online poll. At least this one is not run by a RWer (Scott Rasmussen, who runs HarrisX), and is not owned by a RW apologist shill (Mark Penn, who owns Harris X and runs the separate Harvard/Harris Poll himself.)

You have ZERO proof this is some 'Warren finger on the scale' poll, that is just patently silly. Iowa State University is NOT going to put their name on a partisan 'cooked' poll, ludicrous.

Here is Drew Linzer's (the head pollster) info

https://twitter.com/drewlinzer?lang=en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drew_Linzer

Drew Linzer is an American political scientist who serves as the director and chief scientist at Civiqs. He was formerly a professor of political science at Emory University. He is known for his psephology site "Votamatic".[2][3] In 2014, Linzer ran the successful Daily Kos election forecast


https://votamatic.org/about-me/

Drew Linzer is a survey scientist and statistician based in Oakland, CA, and the Director and Chief Scientist of Civiqs. He was previously a Professor of Political Science at Emory University. His research has appeared in the American Political Science Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, International Journal of Forecasting, Political Analysis, Political Science Research and Methods, Journal of Politics, World Politics, Social Science & Medicine, and the Journal of Statistical Software. Drew holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles.


I am NOT saying this is the be all and end all of polls, AND I already stated (in this very thread) I am also waiting for the gold standard Des Moines Register poll



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:35 AM

7. Go Pete!

 

My second choice, despite doubts about his AA support. Would LOVE to see a debate Buttigieg v Warren - the smartest cookies in the race. Elizabeth better brush up on foreign policy - Pete outclasses the entire field on that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:36 AM

8. Thanks for including the MOE!!!

 

Considering the 5% MOE, that makes Warren's lead even more impressive, from a sample with a strong percentage of likely caucus participants.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:48 AM

11. 1st+2nd Choices: EW 52%, PB 34%, BS 31%, JB 22%, AK 11%, KH 9%

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:50 AM

12. Lol

 

When a poll looks like an outlier, it usually is.
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to boomer_wv (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 07:59 AM

14. Did you read how they conducted it? an invitation only poll...only those who voted a certain way

 

were sampled and less than 600 of them. When I see national polls showing Biden ahead, I know he probably has a greater lead because those polls skew left...with Warren just the opposite. Now as for this poll...it is simply a poll designed to make Warren look like she is surging...we have seen a number of them...when you look at polls that don't have a dog in this fight, it is a very different outcome as we have seen time and time again. Expect more of this in a desperate attempt to counteract the good polls that have come out recently for Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:05 AM

17. you are a broken record, your attempted 'invitation only' false frame smear has been summarily dealt

 

with.

here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287322626#post13

done

and dusted

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to boomer_wv (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:02 AM

15. "the polls are what the polls are"

 

ROFL
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:12 AM

18. Lol...Is it our turn for good polls today?

 

I love that you keep repeating that phrase. Sweating the polls is wasted energy, especially three months out from voting. Wake me up when the last DMR poll is released the week prior to the caucus.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #15)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:15 AM

19. All I did was post the poll, and I even said in the thread I am waiting to see the gold standard

 

Des Moines Register poll, but the level of attempts to falsely smear the basic methodology as (LOLOLOL) 'invitation only' (lololol) is so ridiculous. EVERY online poll (yes, even the A rated ones) selects a group from their sample data and sends off an invite aka an email with a secure link.

If not, then the only way to get respondents to an online poll is to toss it up, Drudge style, on a website and let anyone mash away until their fingers wear out, lolol (and use an VPN if the 'poll' has an IP address tracker that tries to stop a person from voting 100 times).

All because one group doesn't like the results. That same group sure loves the RW-run (Scott Rasmussen) RW owned (Mark Penn), 'invite only' (omg) HarrisX online poll, that is even more 'spun up' than this one is, as HarrisX PAYS a lot of the participants, LOLOL
If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:19 AM

21. Sorry. See my reply #20

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 08:18 AM

20. Hey - I'm not ridiculing the poll you posted.

 

I LOVE seeing Pete at 20%, even if its an outlier. And Pete's put a lot of work and money into Iowa. Good luck to him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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