HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Democratic Primaries (Forum) » State of the Battleground...
Undecided 48%
Joe Biden38%
Bernie Sanders14%

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:34 AM

 

State of the Battleground - November edition.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

8 replies, 496 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply State of the Battleground - November edition. (Original post)
Amimnoch Nov 2019 OP
evertonfc Nov 2019 #1
bearsfootball516 Nov 2019 #2
Amimnoch Nov 2019 #4
Green Line Nov 2019 #5
AlexSFCA Nov 2019 #3
Amimnoch Nov 2019 #6
George II Nov 2019 #7
Amimnoch Nov 2019 #8

Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:43 AM

1. Warren

 

will be a disaster as a nominee. Period. Our best progressive candidate but unable to win a General Election. Very sad considering state of affairs in America. Joe takes PA off map and puts states in play that Warren just can't. Nothing personal but if she is our nominee- we are in big trouble
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:47 AM

2. That's why I'm with Biden. My fear is M4A will kill us in the general.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:53 AM

4. I'm committed to being behind whomever has the best battleground map myself.

 

Each month I examine it closely, and if I see a shift there, my signature will change.

MUST win 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:55 AM

5. I've been saying that since she entered the race

 

She will not win the EC
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:51 AM

3. interesting about Michigan

 

why is it so different from other states - Sanders lead. Just like in 2016, Sanders won the primary by some insane margin in Michigan.
Regardless, the margins in those polls are very troubling. Trumpís support continues to be absurdly strong; plus consider that he is gonna pull all stops during general directing his barr, fbi, etc. to declare some troubling cooked up statements about our candidate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to AlexSFCA (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 10:55 AM

6. yep. While we're duking it out in the primaries his warchest is building.

 

I look at Ohio the most. Somehow that state has a knack for seeing how the winds blow. No president has sat office without Ohio's EC votes since JFK.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Amimnoch (Original post)

Mon Nov 4, 2019, 11:17 AM

7. I'd have to think that with his long friendship with John McCain and the hatred of trump....

 

....in Arizona, Biden would win there, too.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to George II (Reply #7)

Tue Nov 5, 2019, 09:11 AM

8. One would think.

 

That said, I must admit, given the last few years, my faith in the logical reasoning of a large segment of the electorate is shaken.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread