Buttigieg has taken supporters from Warren, not Biden

[brooklynite]

The Crosstab

While Washington analysts and TV pundits spouted off about the threat a Pete Buttigieg rise might pose to Joe Biden, a more predictable thing occurred: Elizabeth Warren’s collapse in the polls. Some have explained her declining poll numbers with a poor roll-out of her Medicare for All plan, while others pointed to a poor debate performance in October as the catalyst for her decline.

It seems reasonable to me that either one of those things could be the driving factor, but yet another lurks somewhere in pundit-world: that educated and liberal whites found a new favorite child—Pete Buttigieg—in their search for an alternative to Joe Biden.

It is chiefly interesting that Buttigieg has risen in national polls while Warren has sunk. Take a look at The Economist’s polling average for more on this. But we see the same pattern in Iowa and New Hampshire, per aggregation from RealClearPolitics. This is important because both NH and IA have a relatively high proportion of white liberal Democrats compared to the nation as a whole.

This suggests to me that much of the conventional wisdom about Buttigieg—that his opposition to Medicare for All made him a good “moderate” alternative to Biden—is wrong. This is yet another reminder that primaries are not as cookie-cutter as we often believe.

[Merlot]

1. Doesn't Pete get a lot of financial support from Silicon Valley?

Silicon Vally is very anti Warren.

[brooklynite]

2. The context is voters rather than funders.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Soft support that follows media coverage

Warren had a great summer, Pete had a great fall; numbers followed. Support for both candidates is still only 1/3 or so committed in IA. People floating between the two could easily land elsewhere two months from now. Bernie’s support is closer to 50% locked in, btw.

[ritapria]

4. Buttigieg and Warren

derive much of their support from white , affluent voters with college degrees …… Biden and Bernie's supporters are mainly working class voters with just a high school education. …………….Biden is super strong with African-Americans while Bernie is making gains with Latino voters ..

[samir.g]

5. I thought that Bernie had a huge following of college students

and young professionals

[blm]

6. Or, the constant media drumbeat of the political pundit class the last 2mo.

Obsessively pushing the need for moderate candidates even over traditional policy goals of the Dem party going back to FDR.

https://www.gq.com/story/political-pundits-moderate-obsession?

[LAS14]

9. I wonder what pundits were saying when FDR ran? Maybe the same sort...

... of thing and maybe it didn't matter. Sometimes history just has its way.

[judeling]

7. In stock market terms

Warren, Beto, Buttigieg, and Harris were momentum plays while Sanders and Biden are value stocks.

At first there was some rotation out of value into momentum until in mid July it reached 37%. Since then the story has been rotation in the momentum names, as Harris fell Warren rose and now as Warren fell Buttigieg rose. But now the momentum names represent 30%.

The question is will the slow rotation back to value be enough and will a small cap stock benefit.

[LAS14]

8. Just yesterday my son said he was switching from Warren to Buttigieg. He has finally decided...

.. that a gay man has more prospects of beating Trump than someone enthusiastically advocating for MFA.

I continue to hope we've reached one of those historical moments and that the country will go with big changes instead of DT. If we don't make BIG changes soon in behalf of the climate we're sunk. I understand that this would require re-taking the senate and that even then we wouldn't get MFA. BUT we might get serious action on climate change. Incremental change won't do it. So I'm sticking with EW to the bitter end. Will, of course, fight really hard to beat Trump. I'd even take Williamson or Gabbard!!!!! He is utterly destroying our identity as a nation.

[blm]

11. The pundit class will spread the fear of a gay Dem energizing the GOP vote the same

way they spread the fear that a woman just can’t beat Trump.