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Undecided 44%
Elizabeth Warren22%
Joe Biden14%
Bernie Sanders8%
Pete Buttigieg6%

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:19 PM

 

What is happening with Elizabeth Warren?

Chris Cillizza

Less than two months ago, it looked as though Elizabeth Warren might just run away with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

The Massachusetts senator had surged in Iowa and New Hampshire -- the two states that will lead off the nomination fight earlier next year -- and had pulled into a dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden nationally.

Then that Warren wave hit a wall. Starting right around mid-October, Warren's numbers not only stopped moving upward but also began trending down. A Quinnipiac University national poll released just days before Thanksgiving showed Warren at 14% in the national ballot question -- down from 28% in the same poll in October. In a Des Moines Register/CNN survey released in November, Warren dipped to 16% -- down six points from a September poll when she led the pack.

Warren's slide is impossible to debate. What's more up for argument is the "why" behind it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Arrow 67 replies Author Time Post
Reply What is happening with Elizabeth Warren? (Original post)
brooklynite Monday OP
evertonfc Monday #1
OilemFirchen Monday #2
helpisontheway Monday #3
wellst0nev0ter Tuesday #62
emmaverybo Monday #4
progressoid Monday #5
highplainsdem Monday #8
progressoid Monday #13
SCVDem Monday #14
progressoid Monday #17
SCVDem Monday #21
progressoid Monday #22
exboyfil Tuesday #51
tblue37 Tuesday #58
Demsrule86 Monday #6
colsohlibgal Monday #7
oldsoftie Monday #11
progressoid Monday #15
StevieM Monday #20
progressoid Monday #26
emmaverybo Tuesday #30
StevieM Tuesday #32
emmaverybo Tuesday #43
Me. Tuesday #49
oldsoftie Tuesday #40
BlueMTexpat Tuesday #33
Chemisse Tuesday #35
oldsoftie Tuesday #41
Demsrule86 Tuesday #56
blm Monday #9
BlueMTexpat Tuesday #34
loyalsister Tuesday #64
Me. Monday #10
blm Monday #19
brooklynite Tuesday #47
Me. Tuesday #48
Hoyt Monday #12
Thekaspervote Monday #23
Cha Monday #24
emmaverybo Tuesday #31
Tarheel_Dem Tuesday #38
Turin_C3PO Tuesday #39
oldsoftie Tuesday #42
ritapria Monday #16
crazytown Monday #18
BeyondGeography Monday #25
Aaron Pereira Tuesday #61
Liberty Belle Monday #27
Fiendish Thingy Monday #28
relayerbob Monday #29
Chemisse Tuesday #36
BeyondGeography Tuesday #37
TwilightZone Tuesday #52
MineralMan Tuesday #44
TidalWave46 Tuesday #45
honest.abe Tuesday #53
TidalWave46 Tuesday #54
crazytown Tuesday #46
honest.abe Tuesday #50
Buzz cook Tuesday #55
brooklynite Tuesday #59
honest.abe Tuesday #60
Buzz cook Wednesday #66
honest.abe Wednesday #67
tblue37 Tuesday #57
fpublic Tuesday #63
The Mouth Tuesday #65

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:21 PM

1. why?

 

because in 2020 Trump is the opponent and I simply think people find her unelectable. In a normal cycle, things would probably be different
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:23 PM

2. What happened to Chris Cillizza?

 

Rhetorical. Never mind.

Less than two months ago, it looked as though Elizabeth Warren might just run away with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

... said seriously by no sentient human ever.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:25 PM

3. Majority of Dems do not support her healthcare plans and others

 

do not believe her plan to pay for it. She crashed and burned onthe debate stage much like Beto with his guns statement.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to helpisontheway (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 05:02 PM

62. Yeah, this.

 

Too many dems using disingenuous Harry & Louise talking points to drag her down.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:28 PM

4. She screwed up on M45. She got on the defense. But leadership is knowing how to

 

pick battles and how to defend against the opposition. Warren can reinvent around her other plans
and try to articulate a central message that ties these plans together.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:29 PM

5. Bernie up. Bernie down. Biden up. Biden Down. Warren up. Warren down. Mayor Pete up...

 

It's almost like voters aren't sure what the fuck they want.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:33 PM

8. Biden's been the front-runner all year.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:51 PM

13. All politics are local.

 

I watch what's happening here.

I didn't say front-runner. I said up and down.

Biden was way up to 28 in IA now he's down 12 pts to 16.

Warren went from 10 to 23 and back down to 17.

Currently Pete is up in IA to 24 from a low of 6 pts.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:51 PM

14. Says the undecided one.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCVDem (Reply #14)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:03 PM

17. Not undecided.

 

Just don't want to say...yet. Not really interested in dealing with the petty biases that happen when you declare your choice.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #17)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:07 PM

21. I perfectly understand

 

and respect your choice.

It just seemed kinda easy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to SCVDem (Reply #21)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:08 PM

22. no prob.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #5)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:32 PM

51. A relatively young moderate

 

With charisma and experience. We don't have one of those. I personally think we lose with Sanders or Warren, but I will support whoever the nominee is and try not to criticize any of the likely nominees.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Amy Klobuchar

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #51)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 02:01 PM

58. I like Klobuchar a lot, too. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:29 PM

6. I don't doubt there has been a decline...but was she ever really ahead? and are the numbers

 

worse now so the media/some pollsters can't proper her up?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:30 PM

7. Two Main Reasons

 

She is Female and she wants to tax the Richie Riches......tax them at a percentage way, way below where the top rate was for close to 4 decades till Reagan sliced to big time.

Hopefully she bounces back, we’ll see.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:46 PM

11. "female" is a cop out. If Michelle Obama were running she'd be leaps ahead of everyone.

 

I remember when people also said the US would never elect a black president.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to oldsoftie (Reply #11)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:56 PM

15. I think you'll find hundreds/thousands of posts on DU about Hillary losing because she is a woman.

 

I don't think that was the reason, but a lot of people here do/did.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #15)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:03 PM

20. Sexism is more complicated than people saying they won't vote for a woman.

 

The 2016 election revolved around a ridiculous story about an email server. That would never have happened to a man.

Actually, George W. Bush had a private email server. For some reason that didn't lead people to conclude that he must be a terrible human being.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to StevieM (Reply #20)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:22 PM

26. Yeah. But I worked for a rabid RWer in the Bill Clinton years.

 

I listened to crazy stories about Bil (Whitewater, he murdered Vince Foster, he murdered Seth Rich, stole from the Haitians, etc.)

It the right hates you, they'll find a way to warp reality to justify their hate, regardless of gender.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to StevieM (Reply #20)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:55 AM

30. And this explains Warren's dip how?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to emmaverybo (Reply #30)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:59 AM

32. I never said it did.

 

I was responding to a post about whether sexism hurt HRC's chances in 2016.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to StevieM (Reply #32)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 08:00 AM

43. Fair enough.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to StevieM (Reply #20)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:35 AM

49. The Golden Couple Have Private Everything When It Comes To Email

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to progressoid (Reply #15)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 07:48 AM

40. Oh definitely. People dont want to look at the REAL reasons; just excuses.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 05:23 AM

33. Yes, we shall see.

 

It's less in the polls that in the grassroots organization.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 06:00 AM

35. She was female a month ago too. n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Chemisse (Reply #35)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 07:48 AM

41. Hahahahahahaha!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to colsohlibgal (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 01:49 PM

56. Does it not ocurr to you that if she can't get Democrats on board, she has no chance in a general?

 

The policiies she supports are losers in the general...and people have decided she is not electable for whatever reasons they have.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:40 PM

9. Chris Cillizza and the constant drumbeat of the media's pundit class

 

the last 2mo.obsessively pushing fear and insisting on the need for moderate candidates even over traditional policy goals of the Dem party going back to FDR.

Cillizza proving once again that he’s more douche than analyst. The money guys got scared when her numbers went up and have directed their media monkeys to tear down Warren. Cillizza is more than happy to oblige.

https://www.gq.com/story/political-pundits-moderate-obsession?

Buttigieg is dominating the debate,” tweeted CNN’s Chris Cillizza, who declared Buttigieg the top winner and Warren the number one loser in his post-debate rankings. (Cillizza previously declared Buttigieg the “hottest candidate in the 2020 race” back in March, right before Buttigieg flatlined and Warren surged.) Panelists on cable news joined the chorus: “I sort of call it a revenge of the pragmatic moderates, who I think really came out in full force," Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod enthused on MSNBC. Many major news outlets anointed Buttigieg the winner and Warren a loser.

Voters took a different view. In FiveThirtyEight’s post-debate panel, Warren netted the highest overall score and outperformed all other candidates among voters most concerned about electability. Buttigieg made modest gains relative to his starting point, but they were more muted than the punditry’s reaction suggested. The polls conducted after the debate showed no significant change in the state of the race. As one summary put it, “Warren faced an uptick in broadsides from her opponents in Tuesday’s Democratic presidential debate, but it did not impact her standing among the party’s primary voters.”
.........

Then the drumbeats became louder and constant. Cillizza knows. He’s one of the lead monkeys, after all. Just like he was in 2016.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to blm (Reply #9)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 05:24 AM

34. This.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to blm (Reply #9)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 09:06 PM

64. Bingo

 

I also think the polling and pundit opinions are pretty circular rather than observational or truly predictive at this point. It astounds me that pundits and some supporters really push them as an accurate reflection- despite 2016. The fact that Trump is in office leads me to be very skeptical of polls and other assessments of the race. I have no real basis for confidence in my or any other speculation about who is most electable or who is likely to win. My strategy is to support who most appeals to me, wait, and watch. For my own peace of mind, I avoid most mainstream news sources.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:42 PM

10. Looks Like Cilizza Has Him A New HRC

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Me. (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:03 PM

19. ✔️

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Me. (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:41 AM

47. Always telling when people attack the motives of the messenger rather than the facts of the message

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #47)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:45 AM

48. THe Messenger Has A History Of Misogyny

 

and therefore, IMHO, his motive is suspect. As for the Senator, time will tell and it is too soon for Cilizza, or anyone else, to count her out.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:47 PM

12. MFA, proposals that can't be paid for and people know it, and a few other

 

things.

Personally, I’m not convinced the kind of populism she and Sanders espouse go over well. I’d prefer a woman, and like Harris and Klobuchar. But they just aren’t catching on.

It’s ironic listening to her demonize the rich, when she needs the ones we have — and more — to pay for her endless plans. She’d do better if she acknowledged even the middle class is going to have to kick in.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:09 PM

23. +1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:16 PM

24. Good point about "demonizing the rich" when they

 

are needed to fund proposals.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:56 AM

31. +1000

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 06:44 AM

38. Excellent points. n/t

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 06:45 AM

39. I wouldn't say she

 

demonizes the rich. She’s just sick of them complaining about getting taxed more. They need to pay their fair share. I wish Joe would support a wealth tax, it is in no way unfair to the wealthy.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 07:50 AM

42. Remember the "luxury tax" from 20-30 yrs back. Total flop.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 10:57 PM

16. She tried to please everone on MFA

 

The slide began with her handling of MFA …. Initially Warren stood by Bernie as a staunch , articulate defender of MFA.. They were a tag team fending off the rest of the candidates who supported the Public Option .. …. Then she claimed middle class taxes would not have to go up to finance MFA ….Then came the position that she would pursue not MFA; but rather the Public Option in her first 2 years in Office .. Warren still has a good shot at winning the nomination ….She has a great organization in Iowa …. A victory there will put her in good shape to take on the moderate who emerges after the first 4 contests take place ……. Her mishandling of MFA will be forgotten - if she wins Iowa
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Bernie Sanders

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Response to ritapria (Reply #16)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:03 PM

18. I'm surprised people here have not explored what the first two years would actually look like.

 

The political mistake is still the same, but if her transition plan was ever put into effect private health insurance would be mortally wounded, and M4A inevitable.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to ritapria (Reply #16)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:18 PM

25. Bernie's MFA Bill has a four-year transition period with a public option

 

written by co-sponsors like Gillibrand and Stabenow. All this talk of MFA purity is absurd:

Parts of the Sanders bill help establish a road map for what some other strategies might look like.

The provisions are tucked into Title X of the bill and describe the four-year transition between current policy and the Sanders bill’s goal of a Medicare-for-all system. During that interim, some younger Americans would be able to buy access to the traditional Medicare program, which is now mainly for those 65 and up. The provisions would also establish an option for Americans to buy access to a Medicare-like government plan that would be sold on the Obamacare exchanges.

The Medicare buy-in section comes from Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, who has introduced the provision as a stand-alone bill.

The public option section was written by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, a longtime proponent of the idea. As part of the Sanders bill, she said, a public option would help the government prepare to administer a full-fledged Medicare-for-all program.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/15/upshot/buried-inside-bernie-sanderss-bill-a-fallback-plan.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to ritapria (Reply #16)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 04:43 PM

61. As a Warren supporter I think you have this right.

 

She built her career on principled, public interest stands and then she made the mistake of backing away from M4A.

If you look at the RCP poll average her numbers started declining under scrutiny of the details on her plan. In response Warren backtracked.

Then, on the very day she started equivocating the poll numbers absolutely cratered. Her reversal attracted no moderates and a further one-quarter support vanished nearly overnight.

I'm staying with Warren until the end but she made a mistake by trying to please everyone on this issue. I was sorry to see it.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:30 PM

27. I heard she won endorsement of San DIego Democrats this week, but skipped the CA convention.

 

She did speak here, which no doubt helped.

Keep a close eye on California, which this year votes on Super Tuesday in March instead of June. We have the most electoral votes of any state. I think Biden made a big mistake by not coming here for the Dem convention, which I believe Warren also skipped. I was not at the convention this year bu Bernie showed up and stole the show by default, from what I heard. Kamala Harris has tanked here in her home state.

California could be the king maker. Whoever wins here in the early primary will have huge momentum and if they have already won other key states, could be unstoppable.

I believe right now Warren is still most likely to win California, though Bernie could carry it. Nobody else has a chance.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:37 PM

28. IIRC, the November poll had a higher sample of moderates and conservatives

 

Than the October Quinnipiac poll
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Dec 2, 2019, 11:45 PM

29. She waffled way too much in the debates

 

... and didn't really show much leadership potential, IMO. Playing the "not a Democrat" card was definitely not a smart move.

I was definitely leaning her way, but now am up in the air myself. I think she is best suited for the Senate, where she does a great job.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 06:05 AM

36. The Medicare For All plan became less popular over the past few months.

 

And when she put the price tag on it, which she had to do, she took a nosedive.

It was the issue she talked the most about, so she is synonymous with it. She needs to promote some of her other plans, preferably those without fatal flaws, if she wants to regain momentum.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Chemisse (Reply #36)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 06:27 AM

37. Actually, health care was the issue she talked about the least

 

Have you ever heard her stump speech? If you had, you’d know that health care isn’t in it at all. Health care was the question she was asked about the most and attacked on the most because the MFA pay-for question was the one issue where her opponents got traction. She did become highly identified with MFA as a result but many people are just tuning in and they’ll quickly learn that it’s not at the heart of her campaign.

Her wealth tax was and remains the centerpiece of her campaign. It remains exceedingly popular with over 70 percent support from a Democrats and even majority support from a Republicans. It is why she rose in the polls in the first place and why she will rise again. If she had to change her tune or who she is, she’d be in real trouble. She’s doesn’t and she’s not.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #37)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:36 PM

52. If she isn't talking about health care, she should be.

 

It was, by a huge margin, the #1 issue voters noted in exit polls in 2018. A strong focus on health care is why we did so well in 2018.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:26 AM

44. I think she has sort of run out of steam.

 

She started off by having a "plan" for everything. But her "plans" weren't always the plan people wanted. That's especially true for her Medicare for All plan. It sounded good until you started looking for way to fund it. It sounded good until people who are covered by their employer's healthcare plans wondered what it would mean to them.

Elizabeth Warren, unfortunately, doesn't seem to have a plan for her plans not gaining traction and picking up speed.

Now, people have forgotten Bernie Sanders recent heart attack, and are shifting back to him. He and Warren have been splitting the same bloc of progressive voters, pretty much right down the middle. Right now, things have shifted a little in Bernie's direction. Who knows, though? They could shift back at any time.

They're still divvying up the same group of potential voters, though. That doesn't appear to be changing.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:29 AM

45. This is absurd.

 

"Less than two months ago, it looked as though Elizabeth Warren might just run away with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination."

Who is Cillizza and how hard was he dropped on his head as a child?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TidalWave46 (Reply #45)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:54 PM

53. Well to be fair at that time she was on an upward trajectory and Biden was sinking then..

 

quite a huge drop.. see chart below from RCP.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #53)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 01:29 PM

54. Thank you for backing up how ignorant the statement is. NT

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:32 AM

46. She's doomed. Doomed.

 

Warren should suspend her campaign and hand the Money back to donors.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 12:26 PM

50. I was actually surprised with her high numbers back in October.

 

I like Liz and most of her ideas but I just dont see her as our best candidate. She doesnt really have much spark or charisma and has minimal appeal to minority voters. Her support seems to be narrow and doesnt play well in many parts of the country. I think her numbers now are more in line with reality.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 01:34 PM

55. A concerted effort by her opponents and the media

 

To keep the Overton window to the right.

The majority of voters did support M4A, now they don't' That's because they are being poorly informed.

Biden is of course the liar in chief by conflating the cost of insuring all Americans with M4A. Adding the cost of inclusion as if it doesn't effect any health care plan that tries to be universal.

He also uses the lie that payments to medicare are a tax. They are not. Just as with SSI, Medicare/Medicaid are insurance payments. No tax increase involved you just change insurers.

The cost of M4A is dwarfed by the cost of keeping our current system. Even the minor changes that right wing democrats propose are bandages,

Of course Biden is not alone in this, Buttigieg, who earlier this year said M4A/single payer was the compromise position, has now compromised that to .. what? a public option of some sort.

Of course the media as always is the main culprit in this. From constant questioning of cost, to asserting M4A as too costly was a very short evolution.
As I've pointed out elsewhere only Warren and Sanders have been asked to define policy positions in detail. All of the other candidates have health care plans that will cost trillions of dollars over that ten year period that Warren and Sanders have had to justify, and the media doesn't say boo about that. Even when those plans may cost more than M4A or only cost less because they don't cover all Americas.

Mayor Pete was right, M4A is the compromise position. The full loaf would be a national health care system such as Britain has.
Yet here we have the media and senior democrats beating back the compromise, just to keep a system that is a white elephant.
The cost savings and carry on benefits are enormous with M4A and we're being asked to ignore that so as to protect the feelings of for pay insurance and because we're too afraid we'll be called commies.

To quote Joe Biden, "We're better than this".
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #55)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 02:04 PM

59. Biden "Liar in Chief"?

 

This should be fun.....
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Pete Buttigieg

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #55)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 04:23 PM

60. What's with the "liar in chief" insult to Biden???

 

That I believe is a violation of the rules of this forum.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #60)

Wed Dec 4, 2019, 03:56 PM

66. Biden has lied about M$A. That's just a fact.

 

Because of his position as the most senior democratic candidate the media can claim that he speaks for the democratic majority and for the party itself.

There are about 27 million uninsured Americans.
https://www.kff.org/uninsured/fact-sheet/key-facts-about-the-uninsured-population/

The average health care cost under our current system is $440 for individuals. $1,168 for families.
https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/resources/affordable-care-act/much-health-insurance-cost-without-subsidy

12 x 440 = 5,280 12 x 1168 = 14,016

Health insurance costs inflate at a higher rate than general inflation.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/cost-of-living/health-insurance-inflation/

health insurance costs rose 5% this year.
https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2019/09/25/us-health-insurance-premium-costs-increase-more-than-american-wages-employer-sponsored-coverage/2441102001/

Ok lets do some back of the envelope math.

5,280 x 27,000,000 = 142,560,000,000

That's a big number. and its before we add in ten years and 5% inflation. By the way Biden claims his plan will cost 750 billion over a decade.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/september-democratic-debate-live-updates-n1053226/ncrd1053571#liveBlogHeader

Looks like that might be a low estimate.

So lets round down to make the math easier.

5,000 x 25,000,000 x 10 = 1,250, 000,000,000
now lets add inflation. 2,036,000,000,000
https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator#d9KEMVSXhj

So the current system will cost over 2 trillion over ten years to cover our current uninsured population.

But wait, we might gain 9 million uninsured over the next decade with the current system.
https://www.cleveland.com/medical/2009/02/number_of_americans_without_he.html

kinda throws the math off a bit. So 2 trillion over ten years is way low ball.

Now lets look at the math with the current population of 329,064,917
its over 32 trillion.

So our current system costs more than the highest estimate for M4A. BTW the population will grow, that is not factored into these calculation.

So in 2016 the federal government paid 1.38 trillion for its various health care programs.
https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/jul/21/how-expensive-would-single-payer-system-be/

The high range for single payer cost is 2.8 trillion a year. The same article has Sanders team saying M4A will cost 1.38 trillion, the same amount our government currently pays.

Here's an article that says the USA paid 3.5 trillion for health care in 2017.
https://www.thebalance.com/causes-of-rising-healthcare-costs-4064878

So what is my point? Well Biden and his team have access to the same numbers we do. Those numbers clearly show that our current system will be more expensive than M4A. They also show that the highest estimated cost for M4A is lower than our current system.

So when Biden and his ilk say M4A is too expensive, they are lying. When members of the media say M5A is too expensive they are lying.

It is not a breach if the claim is factual.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to Buzz cook (Reply #66)

Wed Dec 4, 2019, 04:05 PM

67. Thanks for posting a jumble of numbers that few can decipher.

 

Lying is a strong charge especially to our former VP and our likely nominee. At some point you will need to walk all that back and give your full and complete support to Joe if you care about winning this election.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 01:59 PM

57. She hurt herself with M4A & with not being able to name more than 3 important black influences. nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Elizabeth Warren

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 08:46 PM

63. Good faith? Worry-mongering?

 

Chicken Little (I can't remember exactly why) was deluded about the sky.
Says the umbrella salesman in less than good faith: Chicken Little says the sky is falling. Get yer umbrellas here! Uncertainty, fear goose umbrella profits.

There's 1% uncertainty about climate change estimates. Says fossil-fuel sponsored denier in less than good faith: There was snow last winter; it's not getting warmer. Uncertainty buys more years of oil profits.

Primary candidate's poll numbers are dynamic and shifting yet pundits are inanely trying to call the horse race. Says non-Warren supporter: Lookee here! Chris Cilizza says to worry about Warren. Her supporters should wise up that she is flawed.
I don't actually know the motivation of the OP but it doesn't feel like good faith to parrot Chris Cilleeza's BS about your preference's competitor.

We have a wide range of candidates. We don't need to spend our time amplifying doubts about the competition. Good faith is to argue persuasively for our favorites, refrain from reporting the imagined flaws of others so that when the nominee is decided, turnout is not shaded by resentment.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 3, 2019, 09:16 PM

65. I know I'm a broken record, but

 

Ground game. Infrastructure.

The same things that took out Beto and Harris.

A presidential run takes decades to prepare for, unless one is a once-in-a-generation 'rock star' like Obama or Bill Clinton.

Biden's been preparing for this for 20+ years, he has 'ground game'.

Just like Trump built his 'brand' for many years, as did Hillary.

You don't decide to run for President, a couple of years before. GWB was also an exception in that he was merely a brainless idiot guided by a cabal, we don't have a cabal.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Andrew Yang

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