I have been convinced for months this is a three person race

[dsc]

and despite one of my three dropping out I still think only the same people can (or now could have) won. Biden is clearly the favorite. He still has a lock on support from older black voters and thus every state in the South with the possible exceptions of Florida and Texas. If that dynamic doesn't change he will get the delegates to win very fast. Remember Hillary won the nomination on Super Tuesday with the level of support Biden has and he would do better with delegates than she did since the non Biden support is divided.

That dynamic is why I felt then and still feel now that only Biden, Warren, or Harris had a shot. Booker might have one now but he is so low that I don't think he can make it out of Iowa or New Hampshire. Warren has shown some ability to attract new voters and black voters so I think she can still have a shot. Everyone else has the same problem. Older black voters seem to have decided that Biden is who they want and they, for good reason, have a great deal of influence on who our nominee is. I thought Harris had a legit shot of changing that dynamic but she dropped out. Had Harris been able to get black voters prior to now she would still be in.

As for the rest, Sanders has who he had before and seems to be getting no real new voters, Buttigieg just isn't generating support among blacks and that shows no signs of changing. Bloomberg for all his money is at 4%, Steyer is doing a little better than that, Yang a little worse. Castro and Booker have black support equal to or better than their total but their total is so low it isn't doing any good.

Like it or not, Biden is winning because he has convinced a vital constituency of ours that he is the best choice. If that doesn't change I don't see him losing. That is how democracy works.

[Ninga]

1. The candidates run their races, taking their policies and minds to the voters. We can not run

the races for the candidates, they will prevail, nor not.

It’s disheartening to see and believe and understand the value of a candidate and watch them not succeed.

Having said all of that, it’s still early.

[ritapria]

2. If Bernie takes Iowa , NH will fall in his lap

He is well organized in NV and quite popular with Latino Voters there ……...If he wins the first three states , he has a helluva shot of taking the nomination ……...John Kerry was a distant third in the national polls ( 11%) in December 2003 until he won Iowa and NH ….The Dec 2003 frontrunner Howard Dean (28%) came in third in Iowa and a distant second in NH and crashed and burned shortly thereafter .….. If Joe does poorly in Iowa and NH , will his candidacy go down the tubes as well ? What happens in Iowa and NH is huge ...That is why all the candidates spend so much time there …..

[dsc]

3. That didn't work when his opponent was Hillary

He tied her in Iowa and obliterated her in NH, did OK in NV and then cratered. Unless he gets older black votes he isn't winning and I don't see him doing that.

[Quackers]

4. I still think it was too early for Kamala to drop out. She could have continued for a while.

I’ve been for Pete for a long time now. The next few months will determine whether he can convince others to trust in him. I do remember early on though that many people looked down on Pete’s bid as a novel idea. He wasn’t seen as a serious candidate. Now that his national numbers increase, the attacks on him are increasing. I’m ok with that too. Its part of the vetting process. I’m not silly enough to say that he will absolutely win the nomination. But I will say that he will surprise many and even if he doesn’t get the nomination, he will come out of this a much stronger leader.

[brooklynite]

5. I think she knew what was coming out at the end of December when she'd have to make an FEC filing...

Historic fundraising problems tend to result in future fundraising problems.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

6. I read that she needed to get off the California ballot to avoid a weak showing and hurt senate run

Not sure if that has any validity