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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:19 PM Dec 2019

Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won't want to hear

NBC News

Joe Biden is the national front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. He is holding a steady lead in national polling, and his campaign boasts of the firewall he's established among African American voters, who may be the key to victory in the Feb. 28 South Carolina primary and who have backed the ultimate winner in every Democratic nominating contest since 1992.

That's the good news for Biden.

The bad news is that in the first two voting states, he's trailing. In fact, according to an average of the polls, he's running in fourth place in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

If that holds, it will place Biden on the perilous side of history. Traditionally, the results from Iowa and New Hampshire play a dramatic role in winnowing and clarifying presidential fields. Since the dawn of the Democratic Party's modern presidential primary system in the 1970s, no candidate has lost contested races in both Iowa and New Hampshire and still gone on to win the nomination.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Cruel primary history lessons Joe Biden won't want to hear (Original Post) brooklynite Dec 2019 OP
Ruh roh Tipperary Dec 2019 #1
In another thread poll results show him ahead in Iowa. redqueen Dec 2019 #2
Other post shows a single polling result. NBC story is based on current polling average brooklynite Dec 2019 #14
Aha, thanks. redqueen Dec 2019 #15
Bill Clinton did not win either one question everything Dec 2019 #3
Truth is a cruel mistress. The Valley Below Dec 2019 #5
It's amazing how NBC can print un-factchecked bullshit like that jberryhill Dec 2019 #4
Even worse than that. The Valley Below Dec 2019 #6
'Swhy they called him the comeback kid! nt redqueen Dec 2019 #16
Right. Wish I could contact him but there is only a twitter account question everything Dec 2019 #7
Interesting. cwydro Dec 2019 #8
No one contested Harkin in his home state in 1992 ritapria Dec 2019 #11
It's still one of those low-sample-space non-rules jberryhill Dec 2019 #20
Maybe an editorial note is in order correcting the last statement in the NBC post. emmaverybo Dec 2019 #9
I just did question everything Dec 2019 #12
Thanks. But the OP should add the comment, reflecting this information. emmaverybo Dec 2019 #13
Yes please. The Valley Below Dec 2019 #18
I honestly don"t think that IA/NH are going to have a lot of impact stopdiggin Dec 2019 #10
For someone who seems so well connected to the party..you sure do not know Iowa.. Peacetrain Dec 2019 #17
Not so fast... other polls are much more fav to Biden Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #19
 

redqueen

(115,096 posts)
2. In another thread poll results show him ahead in Iowa.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:29 PM
Dec 2019

I'm starting to hate polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

brooklynite

(93,834 posts)
14. Other post shows a single polling result. NBC story is based on current polling average
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:03 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,096 posts)
15. Aha, thanks.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:08 PM
Dec 2019

I like RCP for the averages.

Well, I did. Before Bloomberg butted in

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

question everything

(47,263 posts)
3. Bill Clinton did not win either one
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:31 PM
Dec 2019

The above is not a reliable source.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
4. It's amazing how NBC can print un-factchecked bullshit like that
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:37 PM
Dec 2019

And that other people uncritically distribute false information.

1992 Iowa - Won by Tom Harkins
1992 New Hampshire - Won by Paul Tsongas

...and the nomination went to Bill Clinton.

It's really astounding that people make shit like that up for people with short or no memories, or for people who really don't care what is true and what is not.

So, not only is it a "cruel primary lesson", it is also a false one.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

The Valley Below

(1,701 posts)
6. Even worse than that.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:44 PM
Dec 2019

Bill Clinton lost in Iowa.
Lost in NH.
Lost in Maine.
Lost in South Dakota.

Then, finally, on a day (March 3, 1992) when he lost races in Colorado, Idaho, Maryland, Minnesota, Utah, and Washington...

Bill Clinton won his first primary in Georgia.

I call: thread fail!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

redqueen

(115,096 posts)
16. 'Swhy they called him the comeback kid! nt
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:09 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

question everything

(47,263 posts)
7. Right. Wish I could contact him but there is only a twitter account
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:46 PM
Dec 2019

and I don't twit...

On edit: found their contact

Submit feedback or report an error

To report an error or comment on NBCNews.com, please email contact.nbcnews@nbcuni.com

Oh, how Whiny Donny would love to call it "fake news.."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

cwydro

(51,308 posts)
8. Interesting.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:47 PM
Dec 2019

Thanks for posting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
11. No one contested Harkin in his home state in 1992
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:51 PM
Dec 2019

As for NH , Clinton won the media narrative by declaring : "I'm the Comeback Kid" He got all the positive headlines despite coming in 2nd to Tsongas

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
20. It's still one of those low-sample-space non-rules
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:57 PM
Dec 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
9. Maybe an editorial note is in order correcting the last statement in the NBC post.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:47 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

question everything

(47,263 posts)
12. I just did
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:54 PM
Dec 2019

Submit feedback or report an error

To report an error or comment on NBCNews.com, please email contact.nbcnews@nbcuni.com

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
13. Thanks. But the OP should add the comment, reflecting this information.
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:58 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

stopdiggin

(11,089 posts)
10. I honestly don"t think that IA/NH are going to have a lot of impact
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 03:47 PM
Dec 2019

this cycle. (just an impression formed sitting in this desk chair). Qualified by saying unless someone makes a BIG, unexpected, move. Biden almost certainly is "insulated" against a poor showing by the SC numbers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Peacetrain

(22,836 posts)
17. For someone who seems so well connected to the party..you sure do not know Iowa..
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:24 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,605 posts)
19. Not so fast... other polls are much more fav to Biden
Mon Dec 9, 2019, 04:31 PM
Dec 2019

Breaking
Iowa Caucus (CBS / YouGov)
@JoeBiden : 22%
Sanders: 22%
Buttigieg: 21%
Warren: 18%



Iowa, NH, NV and SC @MorningConsult Poll:

Biden 25%
Sanders 20%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 12%
Steyer 9%
Gabbard 4%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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