New Hampshire may test durability of Sanders' popularity

[TexasTowelie]

FRANKLIN, N.H. — Bernie Sanders has consistently remained among the front-runners in the Democratic primary with polling that has stayed strong despite his campaign-trail heart attack last month and the rise of top rivals Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.

But perhaps no state will test the Vermont senator’s durability more than New Hampshire, where he trounced Hillary Clinton by 22 points in 2016 and now may find himself a victim of that success since repeating such a dominate performance seems unthinkable.

Warren, a senator from Massachusetts, is trying to erode Sanders’ support among ardent progressives, while former Vice President Joe Biden continues to woo the Democratic establishment, declaring during a recent stop in the state capital, Concord: “I plan on winning New Hampshire.”

Yet another New Englander, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, could raise the state’s stakes since he’s already relatively well known here, despite just joining the race.

Read more: https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/11/23/new-hampshire-may-test-durability-of-sanders-popularity/
(San Jose Mercury News)

[Tiggeroshii]

1. He'll be fine

Dominating in nearly every metric, Sanders has this!!

[NurseJackie]

3. New Hampshire's ethnic demographics are very favorable to the BS campaign.

New Hampshire's ethnic demographics are very favorable to the BS campaign.

The racial makeup of New Hampshire as of the 2010 Census was:[36]

White: 93.9% (92.3% non-Hispanic)
Black or African American: 1.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native: 0.2%
Asian: 2.2%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander: approx. 0.0%
Other race: 0.9%
Two or more races: 1.6%

[Tiggeroshii]

4. So are Iowa's.

Winning both will put him firmly in the lead even if he loses SC -well positioning him for Super Tuesday.

BTW welcome to the Sanders Camp!

[NurseJackie]

5. I do not believe that this is something that is worthy of boasting about.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. I believe that any candidates or their supporters willing to start off a contest substantially

behind is putting themselves at a major disadvantage. So far no candidate has ever lost a nomination after winning Iowa and New Hampshire both. And it is looking increasingly likely that candidate will be Bernie Sanders.

[NurseJackie]

9. Any candidate's inability to win the support of the AA and POC communities...

Any candidate's inability to win the support of the AA and POC communities will not succeed in becoming our party's nominee. It's disgraceful and shameful for any candidate (no matter who he or she may be) to simply write-off these important and loyal Democrats. That will be the true "major disadvantage" for anyone to believe that extra white voters can compensate for a failure to attract the support of AA voters.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. There's a difference between inability and unwillingness.

Bernie is both capable and willing to win that support. Candidates who willingly forfeit an entire contest have less of a chance,

[NurseJackie]

11. I see no evidence of that.

Remember that one time when he had a rally in North Charleston, SC? BS can't even get AA and POC to attend a rally at an historically BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK neighborhood, within a MAJORITY BLACK city.

His rally (although well-attended) had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. They did then, and they still do NOW. He can't make headway. He hasn't been able to refine and tune his message.

BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating. When the AA voters don't even BOTHER to show up to a rally that's RIGHT THERE in their city, their neighborhood, their church facility... well that is a SERIOUS SNUB and COMPLETE REJECTION.

All I'm saying is, with such a humiliating rejection by the AA and POC communities, and without their vote, BS doesn't stand a chance.

Who is feeling the Bern? In North Charleston, it was a mostly-white crowd
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/who-is-feeling-the-bern-in-north-charleston-it-was/article_851b29d6-471e-11e9-bc24-7f7b68686e53.html

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Well thanks for your support, anyways!

I'm glad you are still voting for somebody that you feel has no chance of winning for some reason.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. He'll do well there too.

Nobody has much of a doubt Bernie will majorly overperform in the caucuses. It is why so many have been trying to get rid of them.

And if polls are correct, he will be less than 10% behind in SC, keeping him firmly in the lead in the contest as a whole.Unless Biden wins IA or NH, he will not maintain the lead he needs to propel him to the super Tuesday victory he needs to maintain himself as a front runner. Also, whoever wins IA will have front runner status all the way into NH. That definitely accounts for some major credibility going into the other early states.

You know there are few candidates that ran in a subsequent election after performing strongly in the primary before. So far in modern history, we have Hillary who maintained her support in 2008 and built it in 2016, coming out strong in the second contest. I have no doubt Bernie can as well.

[NurseJackie]

13. That's not true.

It is why so many have been trying to get rid of them.

That's not true. It has nothing to do with any one candidate. It has to do with the fact that it disenfranchises so many voters by denying them the ability to participate. It leaves itself open to participants being harassed and bullied because it lacks the sanctity of the secret ballot. People have been working to get rid of caucuses and open-primaries LONG before BS thought of running.

Nobody has much of a doubt Bernie will majorly overperform in the caucuses.

Would you also argue that this this unfair and undemocratic process is why BS followers have been fighting to keep them? The arguments you've given above appear to be suggesting that the only reason they should be retained is because they give the BS campaign an advantage that would not otherwise exist if the caucuses were replaced by voting.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. I think Bernie supporters fight to keep it because it helps him.

I think anti Bernie people fight against it -and open primaries because it helps him. If we are arguing democracy and fairness, then getting rid of caucuses would be on par with keeping open primaries. But somehow that isn't the case, is it? Open primaries or caucuses were never so controversial before it allegedly disproportionately helped a particular candidate.

[NurseJackie]

15. We have a two party system... not a no-party system.

Parties have the right to determine their membership and participation rules and requirements.

Nobody argues that the "First Baptist Church" should allow non members (or members of the nearby Presbyterian Church) to participate in or manipulate the business and activities of the Bapist church. Nobody claims that their "freedom of religion" is being infringed upon.

Yet, when the Democratic party insists that party business be limited to those who have made a minimal effort to declare themselves as actually being a Democrat... there's always a group of malcontents who gripe and moan about being "disenfranchised" (as if) and clearly not having a clue what the word actually means.

If we are arguing democracy and fairness, then getting rid of caucuses would be on par with keeping open primaries.

No, not really. They both need to go. There's nothing at all "on par" with that. The fact that this is being offered-up as being "on-par" with anything reveals what a weak argument there is for it.

[Tiggeroshii]

16. These arguments seem very contradictory.

In too many ways to keep this conversation. Anyways. Thanks for voting for Bernie Sanders even though you appear to not support him in the least.

[NurseJackie]

19. I have no problem in understanding the concept.

These arguments seem very contradictory.

No they're not. I have no problem in understanding the concept. Both give unfair advantages to candidates or campaigns that are not reflected in the actual polling of likely voters of actual party members. Additionally, the open-primaries concept denies party members the right to make their own decisions about party business without any maliciousness or mischievous interference from outsiders or other malcontents.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Thanks so much for your support for Bernie!!

Democracy is about inclusion and voting. Caucuses and closed primaries both exclude people in the voting process. You're right that the party can dictate the process however they want but that doesn't mean it will be more democratic -heck they can eliminate any primary process and choose a candidate, and that will be just as legal in their right. However, if you are supporting eliminating caucuses then to be consistent you should also support eliminating closed primaries in favor of open ones-if democracy and inclusion are the operating factors for either.

[NurseJackie]

21. All voters get to vote on Election Day.

Democracy is about inclusion and voting.

Yes... all voters get to vote on Election Day. There is nothing undemocratic about limiting participation in party business to party members only. Nobody is being disenfranchised in closed primaries. It's not that hard to declare party affiliation anyway. But there can be no denying that people ARE disenfranchised in caucus states, and people ARE denied a secret ballot in caucus states. There's nothing honorable about that. Why defend it?

However, if you are supporting eliminating caucuses then to be consistent you should also support eliminating closed primaries in favor of open ones-if democracy and inclusion are the operating factors for either.

There's nothing consistent in that argument. Both need to go.

Both are weak and allow bullies to intimidate others, and it allows malicious interference in party business... and neither serve any good purpose except to prop-up weak candidates.

[LongtimeAZDem]

17. You need sunglasses to look at demographics like that

[Tiggeroshii]

18. We'll be needing more than that when he blows us away after supertuesday,

and takes the nomination.