No Sanders Surge? New Quinnipiac Poll: Primary Voters Under 35 Favor Bernie By YUGE Margin

[corbettkroehler]

If you would like to examine the underlying numbers, the statistics cited here are from page 10 of the following document, straight from Quinnipiac

1,553 self-identified registered voters polled 12/4 – 12/9/2019 (±2½%)

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[JoeOtterbein]

1. Thanks!

I'm so proud of our young Dems!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Damn straight!! We've talked about gettin young people involved in the political process for SO long

and Bernie is finally breaking through the barrier and bringing young voters into the Democratic Party like never before. No surprise they prefer him by HUGE margins!!

You gotta take your hat off to Bernie!!




Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[brooklynite]

2. Now all he has to do is get young voters to show up and vote.

[still_one]

3. Also that poll doesn't include just Democratic voters

[corbettkroehler]

6. Good Catch - I Have Corrected My Post's Title

As for turn-out among youth, I have no fear. In the 2016 primary, Bernie had more young voters than Clinton and Trump combined.

[thesquanderer]

12. It is primary preference for Dem and Dem leaning voters. What point are you making? (n/t)

[corbettkroehler]

26. To Be Fair, My Original Post Title Included The Word "Dem" But Should Not Have

Its current state is accurate – the poll cited contacting self-identified registered voters.

[thesquanderer]

40. Though this particular question was asked only of Dems and Dem-leaners. (n/t)

[still_one]

34. Independents are included, and i remain skeptical on the criteria of "leaning"

[thesquanderer]

39. criteria "self-identified". Someone could lie, but why? Especially before they hear the questions?

Also, in many states, those independents can vote in the Dem primary.

Ideally, I guess a poll should count them in the states where they can vote in the primary, and not in the states where they cannot.

[still_one]

42. It is just my view. I also give little weighting at this stage of national polls, and from what i

seen in the polls there are still a good number of undecided voters voters, and those who indicate they could change their mind

[thesquanderer]

50. re: "those who indicate they could change their mind"

Also interesting in the same poll is what percentage think they may still change their minds. Biden and Sanders supporters are more likely to think they have made up their minds (46% and 48% respectively), compared to Warren and Buttigieg supporters, who are more likely to consider changing their mind (only 31% of Warren supporters and 19% of Buttigieg's consider their minds made up).

[still_one]

51. Yes it is interesting

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. Absolutely... and Bernie WILL!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[guillaumeb]

4. Exactly who votes is vital.

And voting, even for one's second or third choice, is also vital.

In my view, this says much about the future of the country if, and only if, these young people vote their politics in every election.

[TexasTowelie]

5. The question is whether the parents will let them borrow the car to get to the polls to vote?

Most of them will be no-shows because they are either busy working or they aren't registered to vote where they live if they are college students. Take the preference numbers with a grain of salt.

[corbettkroehler]

7. Will Do - But The Caucus And Primary Infrastructure Is Far Superior This Cycle

Between what Faiz has done and the party reforms Bernie pushed through the DNC, the challenges of registration on Election Day will be ameliorated.

[TexasTowelie]

25. I'm still dubious as to whether any of these polling numbers

represent anything of significance or if the person being surveyed is just stating a familiar name so that they can get busy doing something more important (work, study, play video games, watch TV, drink beer, rip bong hits, etc.)

I was opinionated and showed up to vote when I was young, but there was no way in hell that I would have spent hours at a caucus if Texas had them back then. I never made it to the caucuses when Texas had them and I was much more involved with politics than most of my friends since I was a state employee between the ages of 22 and 35. Nearly all of my friends had either attended college or were college graduates and they were more likely to vote than those who had less education.

[corbettkroehler]

29. Point Taken - The Campaign's Millions Of Voter Contact Attempts Are More Important

I also don't place a whole lot of weight on polls. However, I am sick to death of the broad denial here on DU of Bernie's surge. That must be refuted whenever and wherever possible.

I also liked that poll as a direct rebuttal to the claim of some DUers that "Sanders can't attract young voters".

[TexasTowelie]

49. Voter contact attempts do not equate to voters.

If they contact the same person multiple times and the phone wasn't answered or rolled into voicemail, does each call count? The person contacted only gets to vote once. Does the voter contact attempt count for Bernie if they reach the voter and they indicate that they are not going to vote for Bernie?

I wouldn't make any statistical inferences without asking a lot of questions. I was a statistician most of my life so I know that data can be manipulated to support a hypothesis and I have no doubt that political campaigns are among the worst manipulators. Do you think that any of the campaigns are going to tell the public that they aren't making an effort at voter outreach? Since we don't have any data from the other campaigns about their voter contact attempts or what they consider as a voter contact attempt for comparison, the numbers are meaningless and should be considered as "spin".

At this point, I expect that the four candidates that are at the top of the polls will remain in the contest through Super Tuesday no matter what the early primary/caucus results are since they have adequate funding. It's also quite likely that they will also remain active through the primaries in the middle of March. I suspect that we will have a good idea who the nominee will be at that point, but the contest will likely be decided after the mid-Atlantic/New England primaries or we will know that it will be a brokered convention. Being in first place won't be enough--if Bernie doesn't have a substantial lead, then it is unlikely that the superdelegates will favor him over the other candidates when it comes time for the second ballot at the convention.

[Renato ray]

8. He doesn't lead in any other age group

It is possible that everyone 35 and over will stay home on election day, but that's unlikely.

[samnsara]

28. im in wash state.... we are all mail in so..

....i will mark my ballot and leave home to walk it to the mail box.

[Thekaspervote]

41. Right.. nor in the overall poll...

Poll averages show a much different picture

[George II]

9. The customary "younger voter" demographic has been 18-29 years old, I wonder why....

....Quinnipiac has expanded it to 18-34?

Traditionally the 18-29 year old demographic has had the lowest turnout of any age demographic.

[corbettkroehler]

13. In 2016 Primary, Sanders Drew More Young Voters Than Clinton And Trump Combined

Your point about voters under 35 defined as young is well taken. I don't know why Quinnipiac changed the category. Still, the margin versus Sanders' rivals is immense.

To your other point, I'm not worried about apathy among the youth one bit.

Here are the relevant 2016 primary numbers.

More young people voted for Bernie Sanders than Trump and Clinton combined — by a lot

[George II]

15. This confirms that by just appealing to younger voters one can't win.

[corbettkroehler]

20. The Point Was Pulling Young Voters

He proved that he can do that in droves. Need further proof? Newsweek just named him the most popular politician among college students.

Besides, if pulling a broad coalition of voters were enough, Hillary would be POTUS45.

[brooklynite]

19. ...and still lost the Primary

[George II]

14. By the way, overall the Quinnipiac results are...

11/2-11/25

Biden 24
Sanders 13
Warren 14
Buttiegieg 16

This latest, 12/4-12-9

Biden 29 (+5)
Sanders 17 (+4)
Warren 15 (+1)
Buttiegieg 9 (-7)

So I guess if Sanders is "surging" with an increase of 4 points, what word can we use for Biden's 5 point increase?

[corbettkroehler]

21. There's Been A Blanket Denial Of The Existence Of ANY Sanders Surge Here On DU

My only point was that, indeed, he IS surging and the Quinnipiac poll of voters under 35 proves it beyond any debate. Time will tell as to how he does with other voting blocks but I have ZERO concern.

[Thekaspervote]

43. Right!! He polls well with those that have a dismal voting record

So how is that gonna work??

And there this

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total. Thehill.com

[honest.abe]

16. And that same group pays the least attention to the campaign.

From the same poll..

Paying "alot of attention" to the campaign:

18-34: 37%
35-49: 46%
50-64: 54%
65+: 63%

Ignorance is bliss!

[corbettkroehler]

22. Oh, Right, That's Why Sanders Crushed The 2016 Primary With Young Voters

They paid attention then and pay attention now. After all, Newsweek just named Sanders the most popular politician among college students. They can't form an opinion without paying attention.

[George II]

24. I wonder what the total % turnout of young voters was, and how it compared with other age groups.

[corbettkroehler]

30. When It Comes To This Question - Don't Know, Don't Care (n/t)

[TidalWave46]

37. You literally just argued against and for the same poll.

True work of art.

[George II]

27. These numbers are for the 2016 General Election, but I don't think primary voters would change much:

18-29 46.1%
30-44 58.7%
45-64 66.6%
65+ 70.9%

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2017/05/voting_in_america.html

[LanternWaste]

17. I s'pose stripping away so many other relevant demographics to achieve one favorable result

is indicative of something. But not a surge.

And certainly not a viable candidacy.

[George II]

18. Indeed - see my post #14!

[corbettkroehler]

23. He Went From Heart Attack To Crushing His Rivals With Voters Under 35 In 6 Weeks But Didn't Surge?

Now who's stripping facts? I didn't strip anything. I quoted a simple fact. You can judge its overall relevance but it certain is indicative of his viability within one of the most important demographics.

[TexasTowelie]

31. It isn't a surge if more of the older voters changed their minds

and decided to support the other candidates.

[Renato ray]

32. A one-group surge

Bernie Sanders support increase 1% among all voters. You're cherry-picking one age group.
Nobody ever said, "Bernie is not surging among the youngest people two months ago".

[corbettkroehler]

44. It Was Far Worse Than That

DUers have claimed that there is no Sanders surge at all, full stop, period. That is wrong and I stand by this poll AND SANDERS' CRUSHING LEAD as an appropriate rebuttal. However, if you'd like another, since you have accused me of cherrypicking, try the latest Monmouth national poll, showing Sanders' net favorability numbers UP 6 points in a month on a national poll of Democrats. Try defining that as something other than a surge. Go ahead, try:



[Full results available here]

Now what do you have? Let me save you the keystrokes – no combination of words would convince me that I have shown anything other than proof a surge. To be explicitly clear: I offer this not as proof of victory but that the Sanders surge is real.

The surge is real and there's an end to it. Waste your time if you like. Your efforts to dissuade me will end in disappointment (assuming I decide to offer a further reply at all).

[Thekaspervote]

47. I don't think anyone is trying to dissuade you

But you aren’t factoring in those pesky facts about who votes and who doesn’t!!

[Thekaspervote]

45. An important demographic yes... but one that obviously could care less if they vote!!!

[pnwmom]

35. In 2016 Bernie won more under 30 votes than Trump and Hillary combined -- by a lot.

It won't help him win the primaries (or the general) if young people continue to have the lowest rate of turnout.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/20/more-young-people-voted-for-bernie-sanders-than-trump-and-clinton-combined-by-a-lot/

It's hard to overemphasize how completely and utterly Sen. Bernie Sanders dominated the youth vote to this point in the 2016 presidential campaign. While Hillary Clinton dominated him among older voters, he dominated her right back among younger voters -- even winning more than 80 percent of their votes in some states against no less than the eventual Democratic nominee.

But this fact might say it better than any: In the 2016 campaign, Sanders won more votes among those under age 30 than the two presumptive major-party presidential nominees combined. And it wasn't close.

SNIP

[TidalWave46]

36. What does that have to do with a surge.

I hear people keep talking about a surge and then deflecting from it with data that doesn't back it up, as has been done here.

I hear that the popularity of Hitler increased in Charleston SC on the evening of the White Nationalist march. Statistics are so easily abused by those who don't understand them.

[OilemFirchen]

46. Your assertion isn't supported by your evidence.

Has there been a "surge" of support for Sen. Sanders among this group? That's the evidence required to make your point.

Perhaps you should try again.