CNN's Harry Enten thinks Texas could be a swing state in 2020, that Biden could beat Trump there

[highplainsdem]

I've referred to this part of Enten's analysis of new polling in another thread

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287378384

but I wanted to give this a separate OP since it's so important in terms of electoral votes:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-polls-12-11-2019/index.html

Yes, Texas could be a swing state in 2020


That Biden and Trump are basically tied with each other in our Texas poll (48% for Trump to 47% for Biden) may come as a surprise to some folks. It actually makes a lot of sense looking at our poll and recent political history in the state.

Trump's approval rating among registered voters is 49% compared to a 48% disapproval rating. That one-point spread matches the one-point spread in the horserace versus Biden.

If anything, there's reason to believe that is overselling Trump's position in the state. According to an analysis by The New York Times' Nate Cohn of all registered voters in the state, Trump's net approval rating (approval - disapproval rating) in 2018 was -3 points.

Indeed, with a midterm electorate featuring what was likely a far lower Hispanic percentage than will be the case in the 2020 presidential election, Democrat Beto O'Rourke only lost his Senate race by a little less than 3 points.

This is not the first high quality poll to suggest a Biden-Trump matchup could be close. Earlier this year, Quinnipiac University had Biden 48% to Trump's 44%.

That poll, like this one, showed that Biden did at least 5 points better against Trump than all of the other Democrats.

Editing to add a tweet from CNN's Ryan Struyk about the GE section of their Texas poll showing Trump beating Biden by only 1 point but beating Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg by 7 points each:

Link to tweet

2020 head-to-heads in new @CNN poll in Texas just out:

Trump 48%, Biden 47%
Trump 51%, Warren 44%
Trump 50%, Buttigieg 43%
Trump 50%, Sanders 43%

[Cha]

1. I would hope so.. why

vote for a world destroying monster. It would be nice to have our sanity back as a country.. and Texas going Blue as a sign!

[Thekaspervote]

2. Biden is the moderate we need to win!! Thx for posting highplainsdem

[getagrip_already]

3. Some issues will at least cause pause for tx.....

Taking private land for a border wall that Texans don't want anyway is not very popular there. And for the most part, migrants aren't hated or feared there; they are a normal part of life.

But the stupid is deep there, I will admit that.

[Gothmog]

4. Texas will be a battleground state

I and a large number of hard core Democrats have been working for a long while to turn Texas blue. Demographic trends indicate that Texas will be blue no later than 2024 but trump has accelerated the process. After the 2010 mid terms, the Democrats had 49 seats in the Texas legislature compared to 101 for the GOP (this meant that the Texas GOP had a super majority). In 2018 we picked up 12 Texas house seats and now need 9 more to take control of the Texas house. In 2018, we flipped two Texas Congressional seats (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allgood). The DCCC has targeted 6 congressional seats.

If Biden is the nominee, Texas will be in play

Link to tweet

[LongtimeAZDem]

5. That would be cool, but the Rust Belt is where we need to focus

[peggysue2]

6. A win in Texas would be earth-shattering and . . .

bring the Trumpster and his acolytes to their knees. Don't know whether it will happen this cycle, so we need to concentrate on the other swing states for the electoral college. But these numbers indicate the State of Texas is definitely sliding into Purple. Beto O'Rourke should be given credit here for getting the ball rolling. He and his massive team of volunteers rocked Texas.

to all those Dems who made the transition possible and continue the fight until Texas turns to a beautiful shade of BLUE!