Introducing the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator

[Otto Lidenbrock]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-delegate-calculator/

The road to an uncontested Democratic nomination requires a candidate to earn 1,990 pledged delegates and begins in Iowa on February 3. To that end, the first version of our 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator is now available. It is based on available statewide polling. An interactive version, where you can create your own forecast, will be available in the near future.

Several important caveats here:

1. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday - and probably the holiday season in general - there hasn't been all that much recent state polling released. Until that catches up, this page may lag the true state of the delegate race.

2. As noted above, statewide polling - which is all we have to work with - is unlikely to mirror the vote within each district. That means even if the polling average we've calculated ends up being exactly right, the actual delegate allocation could be somewhat different.

3. While the overall number of pledged delegates for each state is known, the numeric distribution by groups is not final. As those become better understood, the calculation for each state could change slightly, even if the polling doesn't. You can click/tap the '+' in each state row to see the estimated breakdown.

4. The primaries and caucuses take place over a four-month period, with each contest influenced by the ones before it. Candidates will gain/lose momentum, and many will drop out.

The point is that polling today may in no way reflect the race closer to a state's primary. The interactive version we are building will give you the option to predict a dropout date for each candidate as a way to somewhat model this dynamic.

https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/12/07/introducing-the-2020-democratic-delegate-calculator_912.html

[George II]

1. This is great. I've been inputting numbers manually into a spreadsheet every week or two....

....and only in the first four states. Took me about 15 minutes each time.

Now we can just reference this. Thanks!!

[ritapria]

2. If you conducted delegate calculator strength in Decemember of 2003

John Kerry would have been credited with fewer than 25 delegates …….. In December of 2007 , Hillary would have crushed Barack Obama in any projected delegate count ..She was leading him by nearly 30% in some national polls conducted in December of 2007 …...The results from the first 4 states have a huge impact on the races that follow ……

[MineralMan]

3. It's silly to award delegates based on polling.

A complete waste of time.